The Long March to Avian Influenza Preparedness in

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 011674 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR CA/OCS/ACS ATTN: ELIZABETH RYAN STATE PASS TO NIH USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN, CELICO, DAS LEVINE STATE FOR USTR USPACOM FOR FPA USPACOM ATTN: MAJOR PBREED E.O. 12958 TAGS: TBIO KFLU CACS AMED ASEC ECON CH SUBJECT: The Long March to Avian Influenza Preparedness in South China REF: A) GUANGZHOU 3688, B) GUANGZHOU 4395, C) GUANGZHOU 6175, D) GUANGZHOU 6294, E) GUANGZHOU 6984, F) GUANGZHOU 8517, G) GUANGZHOU 9084 (U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S. GOVERNMENT CHANNELS. NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Professional polls and Post's informal surveys show that only about half of American businesses in South China are actively planning for an Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak despite scientific reports that AI among birds is endemic in Guangdong, with concomitant higher risks of human-to-human transmission breaking out in this area. Many private American citizens also believe, however, that the U.S. Government will provide transport out of China and provide antiviral medicine if human-to-human transmission occurs and pandemic conditions emerge. Post's active outreach stresses that while the USG is committed to doing all it can to protect American citizens abroad, it would be prudent for them to prepare for a possible situation in which USG and/or other governments' resources are not available. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Post's outreach effort continues to provide information and tips on planning for a potential Avian Influenza (AI) outbreak. Since December 1, 2005, Consulate staff members have presented AI information to American citizens and corporate representatives at American Citizen Service outreach meetings, OSAC meetings and American Chamber of Commerce receptions and events. The audiences have varied in size. Since the inception of Post's AI Working Group last December, Post has conducted more than 20 such meetings. In an effort to maximize the impact of the Department's message, we will conduct a town hall meeting next month at the largest American School in Guangzhou for all Americans resident in the area. Still at Ground Zero -------------- ¶3. (U) While the spread of AI to other continents in the last three months has been the focus of the media's attention, report's on AI's epidemiological history indicate that southern China remains a potent source. A February scientific report completed by researchers from institutions in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Indonesia, noted that "genetic analysis of H5N1 avian flu viruses collected from wild and domestic birds in China suggests the virus has spread in uncontrolled fashion in southern China for the past decade, igniting outbreaks in Vietnam on at least three occasions and triggering spread of the worrisome virus across Russia to eastern Europe." They conclude that the virus remains endemic in southern China and that most viral mutations will come from this source. ¶4. (U) The same report, argues that the only way to minimize the damage done by the virus and reduce the risk it poses to human health is by addressing the problem at the virus's birthplace, in the poultry flocks of southern China. Another report states that the prevalence of human co- habitation with flocks of domestic birds, large breeding populations of hogs and birds on the same farm and the limited distance between farming villages and cities makes Asia a likely place for the first appearance of a virulent form of AI. Message Clearly Heard - Half Understood? -------------- ¶5. (U) Professional pollsters and our own informal surveys continue to show that while the level of AI awareness among Americans in southern China is higher than before, only about one-half of American companies and resident citizens are prepared or are preparing to face a pandemic event (Reftel A). These polls show that while more businesses are GUANGZHOU 00011674 002 OF 002 beginning to plan for an AI pandemic, only about 50 percent have actually drafted a plan to meet the challenge. Post conducted an informal survey of senior managers and corporate treasurers at a recent event hosted by the American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM). While this survey included only 13 senior managers (one response per company with American expatriate staff),the results were in line with the larger Hewlett poll, but significantly more revealing on expectations regarding the U.S. Government response to a pandemic. ¶6. (SBU) Reflecting the Hewlett poll, 54 percent of the American companies in Post's survey replied that they have a written AI plan. A smaller number, 46 percent have advised staff to store food and water, while 69 percent said they expect the Consulate to remain open during a pandemic. For these corporate respondents, 31 percent said that they expected the U.S. Government to assist with the relocation of personnel in a pandemic. ¶7. (SBU) Over a period of two weeks, Post provided the same survey questions to resident Americans visiting the Consulate's American Citizen Services Office. 57 percent have begun to store food and water. 28 percent said they expect the US Government to provide assistance to relocate in the event of a pandemic. Americans also commented that they expect the U.S. Government to provide food and medicines (one specified Tamiflu) in the event of a pandemic. It's (Mostly) Good News and Bad News -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Surveys show that the American community in South China is engaged on the topic of AI. Large American employers are planning for a potential pandemic in increasing numbers. Post will continue its active outreach effort to better educate the public on sources of credible information to assist in their AI planning. We will continue to note that the Consulate regards the safety of American citizens abroad in its consular district as its highest priority and that in a pandemic situation it will utilize and seek as many USG and other resources as possible. At the same time, however, the Consulate will continue to stress self-reliance and frankly report the limited assistance that might be available from the U.S. Government in the event of a pandemic. Dong