Ma May Not Make It -- Xiamen University Taiwan

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 011045 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/CM, EAP/RSP/TC STATE PASS USTR STRATFORD USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN, CELICO, DAS LEVINE USPACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PINR TW CH SUBJECT: Ma May Not Make It -- Xiamen University Taiwan Experts Expect Horse Race Still for Ma Ying-jeou (U) This document is sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. Not for release outside u.s. government channels. Not for internet publication. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: A prominent Xiamen University Taiwan Research Institute professor said that PRC leaders should not be complacent in assuming that Kuomintang (KMT) leader Ma Ying-jeou is a shoo-in to be the island's next president. PRC leaders have consistently underestimated the intensity of Taiwan identity, especially when potentially manipulated by someone like Taiwan President Chen Shui-pian against Ma. So even though the economic and personal linkages between Taiwan and Fujian citizens grow stronger by the day, the political landscape is likely to remain unsettled for some time. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Passing through Xiamen as part of the Consulate's "long march" through the Hakka and Minnan heartland of eastern Guangdong and western Fujian, Congenoffs hosted a Saturday luncheon with representatives of the Taiwan Research Institute (TRI) of Xiamen University. The Institute's Director and Deputy Director were not available, traveling in Taiwan at the time in order to accompany prominent Taiwan academics to Xiamen for the university's 80th anniversary, but Political Science Professor Chen Kongli sat in as the heavyweight of the group that met with us, accompanied on the political side by TRI Political Department Chief Sun Yun, his deputy Zhang Wensheng, and Shi Zhengfang representing the economics side of the institute. Economic, Familial, Hometown Ties Stronger By The Minute -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The mention that the Consulate party had just come from Zhangzhou, home to the third largest concentration (following Suzhou and Dongguan) of Taiwan business people and their families essentially residing permanently on the mainland, elicited a discussion of the strong economic, familial, and hometown ties that were developing all throughout the Hakka and Minnan regions that the Consulate party was traveling through. These are the homeland regions of most Taiwanese. Hence, Meizhou is the home area of KMT heavyweight Wu Poh-hsiung and a major ;Hakka leader in Taiwan. Zhangzhou, for its part, is the home town of luminaries such former KMT Presidential contender Lien Chan and also plays host to a number of Taiwan ventures in a huge array of industries, not the least of which is agricultural product development. Zhangzhou is also the home area of prominent "independence" advocates such as Lu Hsiu-lien (Annette Lu) and Taiwan President Chen Shui-pian itself. Ma As the White Horse? -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The fly in the ointment in these strong and still growing cross-straits ties is, of course, political and foreign relations. Political chief Sun commented that the recent visit by KMT head Ma Ying-jeou to the U.S. was being portrayed in the Chinese media as an indication not only of the U.S. displeasure with Chen Shui-pian but also as a suggestion that the U.S. was supporting a Taiwan figure such as Ma who, because he had reconfirmed the "1992 consensus," was someone who was not unilaterally altering the situation in the Taiwan straits. Sun commented that the U.S. had seemingly been careful not to talk about Ma as the U.S. candidate and that, for their part, the Chinese authorities had also been careful not to be seen as overly enthusiastic by Ma's trip, lest there be a backlash in Taiwan. ¶5. (SBU) At this point Professor Chen commented that notwithstanding this careful public affairs stance by the PRC, a number of Chinese leaders have told him that they saw the future election of Ma as Taiwan's president as very likely. Yes, Ma had a good track record as Taipei mayor, yes, he has a degree of charisma, and yes, he is the sole major Taiwan figure who is endorsing the "1992 consensus," but -- Professor Chen emphasized -- Ma is a mainlander, and, like it or not, Taiwan identity remains important to GUANGZHOU 00011045 002 OF 002 sufficiently large a core group of the Taiwan electorate such that Ma is by no means a sure thing in a future election. Moreover, Chinese leaders do not like Chen Shui- pian, but they should not be blind to the fact that President Chen is a master politician, quite capable of mounting a major political attack against Ma, even if Ma was by far the better mayor of Taipei. Therefore, China's cross-straits strategy should not be based on what might be a false assumption. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The TRI is the oldest Taiwan watching academic institution in China and is generally seen as having the most insight into Taiwan domestic politics. Professor Chen, for his part, is one of the oldest and most experienced of Xiamen University's cadre of Taiwan watchers, and while he avoided predictions about the outcome of any future Taiwan presidential election, he probably is correct that the dynamics of the contest will be complex indeed. Dong