SIGNIFICANT ELECTORAL REFORM DOUBTFUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000932

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: SIGNIFICANT ELECTORAL REFORM DOUBTFUL
REF: GEORGETOWN 915

Classified By: Ambassador David M. Robinson


1. (SBU) Summary: Broad national and international
consensus says Guyana's August 28 elections were a qualified
success. The vote itself was free, fair and transparent;
even the losing opposition candidates conceded defeat before
the last ballot was counted. But smooth voting and the
uncharacterisitc peace that followed are unlikely to blunt
calls for fundamental electoral reform. Electoral politics
here is neither fair nor transparent. Whether the newly
returned government will listen remains to be seen, but early
indications are not encouraging. End summary.


2. (U) Election day and the subsequent vote count went
smoothly and produced a clear majority for the ruling
People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) and its standard
bearer, President Bharrat Jagdeo. Turnout at around 68
percent was low by Guyanese standards but the list of
eligible voters itself was flawed and did not take into
account massive foreign emigration and internal dislocation.
National and international observers found few glitches at
polling stations, and none that swayed the outcome. Even
opposition leaders conceded defeat before the elections
commission finished its count. The atmosphere remained--and
remains--calm, an historical first for the usually turbulent
Guyana.


3. (SBU) But electoral politics here is neither fair nor
transparent and calls for reform qualify the recent success.
The government's PPP/C hierarchy controls the media and
public purse strings, and uses both to squeeze the opposition
and boost its own candidates. Even with a level field,
however, voters don't know the candidates they are choosing:
members of parliament are picked behind closed doors from
party lists after the ballots are counted. There is no
accountable link between members and their constituencies;
the majority party simply rules by fiat.


4. (SBU) Opposition leaders and the international donor
community are vocal about the need for basic electoral reform
that opens the system and encourages accountability, and
Jagdeo makes the right noises in public and in private about
political inclusion and social outreach. But the current
system has been good to the PPP/C, delivering a string of
wins since 1992 and gutting its main rival, the largely
afro-Guyanese People's National Congress/Reform. After this
most recent win, Jagdeo appears positioned to control both
the government and his party, effectively consolidating his
power in the executive and the legislature.


5. (C) In conversations with the Ambassador and other
chiefs of mission from the donor community, Jagdeo attributed
his electoral success to a first term record he describes as
reformist and inclusive--most observers disagree--and said
his new agenda simply would continue the work already
started. At the same time, he emphasized the importance of
helping PNC/R leader Robert Corbin retain his now badly
degraded role as opposition leader and dismissed suggestions
that new faces across the aisle might bring energy and
innovation to the political arena. A tame cabinet and
crippled opposition seem integral parts of Jagdeo's second
term game plan.


6. (C) Under the circumstances, the donor community shares
the view that Jagdeo will be tough to move toward reform on
any significant level. We have been making the rounds
separately and together with our donor colleagues emphasizing
the need for greater political space and dialogue and the
utility of an active parliament and civil society. In the
meantime, good elections probably should not be seen as the
start of a brave new Guyana, and we should continue to insist
on benchmarks and confidence building measures as we
contemplate continued assistance during Jagdeo's new term.

Robinson