GUYANA ELECTION STATUS REPORT: AUGUST 29

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000855 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS WHA FOR DAS DUDDY WHA/CAR WHA/OAS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM OAS GY SUBJECT: GUYANA ELECTION STATUS REPORT: AUGUST 29 AT 13:00 HOURS REF: A. GEORGETOWN 854 ¶B. GEORGETOWN 850 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: Georgetown remained quiet overnight as the consensus solidified that the August 28 national and regional elections proceeded better than expected on a technical level. OAS A/SYG Albert Ramdin made a statement to this effect after the polls closed. Field reports from Embassy personnel who volunteered as OAS observers -- many of whom were deployed to traditionally volatile areas -- confirm that the voting and tallying process went smoothly except for some instances of disorganization. But election day itself was never supposed to be the hardest part. Now the country turns its attention to the results, which are trickling in slower than promised. We and most Guyanese are apprehensive about how the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) will report the results. Delay and/or confusion could still trigger unrest. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- GECOM Slow in Reporting Results; Feedback from Parties -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) GECOM had intended to begin releasing results August 28 at 23:00, but missed that deadline. Results are now trickling in. As of 13:00 August 29, GECOM had released returns for 35 percent of the polling sites in Region 4, which includes the capital and is the most populous region. Traditionally an opposition People's National Congress/Reform (PNC/R) stronghold, these initial counts show the PPP/C with a lead in Region 4. This is just the sort of information that has the potential to strike a nerve in restive Georgetown communities. GECOM will address the media again at 20:00. -------------- PNC/R -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A senior PNC/R figure told PolOff that the PNC/R is disappointed with the low voter turnout, but has not heard major complaints within the party about the conduct of the election day process -- an encouraging sign. (Note: Only about two-thirds of registered voters appear to have cast ballots, a decrease from Guyana's historical turnout of above 80 percent. However, this is reasonable given that as many as 15 percent of registered voters may have emigrated over the past several years.) -------------- PPP/C -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The People's Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) General Secretary Donald Ramotar told the press he believes the PPP/C has a SIPDIS slim majority. Ramotar told PolOff that they will refrain from taking their internal numbers public as long as GECOM does a decent job transmitting results. He also predicts the PPP/C won 52 to 53 percent of the vote and will maintain its absolute majority in Parliament. --- AFC --- ¶5. (SBU) Results from an exit-poll commissioned by the upstart Alliance For Change (AFC) are quietly making the rounds among the Georgetown political set. This poll indicates a PNC/R victory, the PPP/C second, and a strong AFC showing of 21 percent. We have very little confidence in these numbers -- plus the methodology and sample-size used are unknown. Our PNC/R source does not give great credence to the AFC exit poll. However, the fact that the PNC/R is aware of these numbers suggesting it won could spell trouble if the actual results confirm a PPP/C victory as expected. ¶6. (SBU) AFC leader Trotman told DCM he believes the AFC achieved its objectives: preventing the PPP/C from winning a majority, and making the AFC the balance of power. While he wants to believe the AFC won 21 percent, he also cannot explain the PPP/C and PNC/R numbers and has taken on board numerous interventions from the international community over the past week regarding the difficulty of obtaining accurate exit poll results in Guyana. Trotman's optimism is likely misplaced. GEORGETOWN 00000855 002 OF 002 -------------- AmCits and Peace Corps all OK -------------- ¶7. (U) The Consular Section reports there have been no calls from AmCits on election-related issues. As a precautionary measure, all Peace Corps Volunteers are out of Georgetown. -------------- OAS Statement from Ramdin -------------- ¶8. (U) Following is the text of OAS A/SYG Ramdin's statement late August 28 after he had consulted twice with Ambassador and other donor community Chiefs of Mission. BEGIN TEXT: On election day, 28 August, 2006, the OAS Observer Mission deployed a team of 123 observers in the 10 regions in Guyana to observe General and Regional Elections. Reports from OAS observers throughout the day indicated that the General and Regional Elections took place in a calm, professional and orderly manner. The OAS Observer Mission extends congratulations to the people of Guyana for the peaceful conduct of the polls; GECOM for its work in preparing and conducting the elections; polling station officials, party agents and domestic observers for their commitment and professionalism; law enforcement and the disciplined forces for maintaining a peaceful and orderly environment; and the media for keeping the electorate informed about the process. The OAS Observer Mission calls on GECOM to transmit the results of the elections as soon as verified to further promote confidence in the process, and the electorate and contesting parties to exercise patience while awaiting the results of the elections. The Mission further underscores the importance of maintaining a constructive and peaceful environment in the coming days. END TEXT. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Embassy and other OAS observers report generally good dymanics in the polling stations, with GECOM polling staff, political party agents, and local/international observers interacting in friendly mutually supportive manner. This is a change from previous elections marked by mutual suspicion. The acknowledgement by the three major parties that polling went well is also a positive change from past three elections. The real test now will be political party reactions once the final results are announced Wednesday or Thursday. END COMMENT. ROBINSON