ALLIANCE FOR CHANGE OUTLINES STRATEGY, GAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000804 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/09/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM GY SUBJECT: ALLIANCE FOR CHANGE OUTLINES STRATEGY, GAINS MOMENTUM REF: GEORGETOWN 743 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES MICHAEL D. THOMAS FOR REASON 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Dick Morris, political advisor to third-party contender Alliance for Change (AFC),described the party's strategy as it heads into the final weeks of its campaign. The AFC is optimistic that it can continue to siphon votes from the opposition People's National Congress (PNC) while ultimately encouraging mostly Indo-Guyanese supporters of the ruling People's Progressive Party (PPP) to cross racial voting lines. However, fears for AFC Presidential candidate Raphael Trotman's personal safety may temper its ability to reach out to voters. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Charge and British High Commissioner met Morris at his invitation July 31. Morris opened by describing a three-pronged strategy as the AFC heads into the finals weeks before the August 28 election. The AFC is currently running an issue-based campaign focused on gaining recognition among younger, undecided voters. Morris cited polling data that showed the AFC 13 percent behind the PPP/C and on par or slightly ahead of the PNC (now running as One Guyana (OG)/PNCR as described in reftel) and Trotman's strong popularity among ethnically-mixed voters. Morris said the party has commissioned a new poll, the results of which would likely be announced the week of August 7, and he was confident that the data would show the AFC pulling ahead of the OG/PNCR. He predicts this momentum will propel the party to the second stage of its strategy--Trotman appealing directly to PNC supporters to come into the AFC fold. This means convincing Afro-Guyanese PNC supporters that they would not be throwing their vote away because the moribund PNC is a toothless opposition party. In Morris' view, the final stage of the strategy in the campaign's last week will involve AFC leaders appealing to Indo-Guyanese backers of the PPP, convincing them that momentum has "tipped" in favor of the AFC. ¶3. (C) Trotman came briefly to the meeting, at which point the topic turned to security. Trotman confided that he currently has no personal security and is becoming increasingly worried for his safety. He is convinced that an intruder entered his house during a recent campaign trip to the hinterland. Trotman said he had been in talks with the Embassy's previous Military Liaison Officer, now retired and working in Guyana, about contracting for security services, but this had apparently fallen through. He said he has also reached out to an advisor to former Jamaican Prime Minister PJ Patterson for advice on personal security. Morris said the party's strategy of advertising party leaders Trotman, Sheila Holder and Khemraj Ramjattan together rather than highlighting just Trotman as the AFC presidential candidate was done partly to reduce Trotman's target potential. ¶4. (C) Morris also sought advice on the quality of safeguards to prevent election-day fraud. AFC backers have apparently allocated US$50,000 for an exit poll on election day, and Morris intends to hire Gallup out of the Dominican Republic in the absence of any local bodies capable of performing such an exercise. Charge mentioned that the Electoral Assistance Bureau (EAB) will be conducting a quick count to validate polling day results, however, Morris, likening the probably two to three day wait for final tallies to "a ten month wait for an abortion doctor", was hopeful that an exit poll could be a useful validation tool to counter possible voting fraud. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Morris' cheerleading aside, the AFC remains very much a work in progress. The average Guyanese suspects that the U.S. favors the AFC and is even financing it. Trotman and company see this as a positive and do not try to dispel this myth. Other positive factors for the AFC: (a) enough funding to maintain a robust media presence with frequent newspaper inserts (at discounted rates extended by the two independent papers' publishers) and sharp TV ads (at least by Guyana's low standards); (b) many prominent Guyanese (e.g. business leaders, the top pollster, even a few sons and daughters of senior PPP and PNC officials) confide that they like the AFC; and (c) the AFC is undeniably popular among younger voters, confirmed by the clumsy PPP and PNC efforts of late to claim they are in fact the parties for youth. However, the AFC still faces stiff headwinds. Some distrust Trotman (ex-PNC) and Ramjattan (ex-PPP) as unreformed apparatchiks of their former parties who split away because of over-sized egos. The PPP and PNC do agree that the AFC poses a direct threat to their 50 year duopoly on power, so both will continue to hammer away at the AFC on the campaign trail. When the AFC leaders gathered July 28 for their first big rally after Nomination Day, the stage collapsed under them--no clearer reminder that this is still a fledgling party. Thomas