(C) FUZZY MATH: JAGDEO SAYS UNSC VOTE ALL ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000679 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/CAR WHA/PPC - YONEOKA IO/UNP - HARRIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2016 TAGS: PREL UNSC CARICOM VE GY SUBJECT: (C) FUZZY MATH: JAGDEO SAYS UNSC VOTE ALL ABOUT DOLLARS REF: A. GEORGETOWN 672 ¶B. GEORGETOWN 607 Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen For Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Action request see para 5. ¶2. (C) President Jadgeo told Ambassador July 11 that CARICOM has made a condition on its support for Venezuela's UNSC seat candidacy -- that Venezuela must make a public statement that it will not use the UNSC seat to further the cause of its border issue. In the context of the conversation, it was not clear if "border issue" included Bird Rock as well as the Guyana-Venezuela border. ¶3. (C) Jadgeo discussed Guyana's and CARICOM's thinking at some length. He contrasted the Guatemala-Belize and Venezuela-Guyana border disputes, saying that Venezuela and Guyana have an active UN Good Offices process (Comment: Post would characterize this process as "moribund") whereas Guatemala has aggressively pursued its claim. Jagdeo cited Guatemala's failure to support (or opposition to) CARICOM issues in multilateral fora. He also faulted Guatemala for not establishing relationships with CARICOM leaders: "People support people they know. We don't know Guatemala. We do know Venezuela." Jadgeo cited Chile as an example of a country that had paid much attention to establishing and maintaining relationships with CARICOM leaders -- almost implying that CARICOM might (or might have) supported a Chilean UNSC bid. By contrast, he cited Brazil as an example of a country that courted support for candidates, but then forgot about Guyana/CARICOM afterwards. ¶4. (C) Jagdeo described his decision-making process for votes in international fora as "mercenary" and "you scratch our back, we scratch yours." Venezuela has promised to pay for dredging several rivers in Guyana, which will cost millions of dollars. So Guyana will vote for Venezuela. But Jadgeo wants to see the tranferred funds in the bank first. Asked how the projected $100 million of U.S. assistance to Guyana in the 2005-2007 time period would affect the "mercenary" equation, Jagdeo replied he would vote for the U.S., but the U.S. is not a candidate. Jagdeo said he had heard that Venezuela had not supported Guyana in the IDB for two loans, adding "If this is true, no support." As an economist, Jagdeo would take serious note of evidence that Venezuela has gone against loans to Guyana in the IDB or elsewhere. ¶5. (C) ACTION REQUEST: From the conversation with Jagdeo, it appears there are two possible ways to derail Guyana's support for Venezuela: -- Demonstrate that Chavez does intend to use a UNSC seat to pursue its Guyana or Bird Rock claims. -- Show Jadgeo evidence that Venezuela has recently (within the last year) not supported loans to Guyana, either in the IDB or other international fora. Post would appreciate any information Department can provide regarding these two points. BULLEN