PLAN TO COAX GUYANA INTO IMPLEMENTING GOVERNANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000667 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/CAR WHA/OAS S/CRS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GY SUBJECT: PLAN TO COAX GUYANA INTO IMPLEMENTING GOVERNANCE REFORMS REF: A. GEORGETOWN 595 ¶B. GEORGETOWN 499 Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen For Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (U) This is an action request for WHA -- see para 6. ¶2. (C) Ambassador met July 6 with mission chiefs from UK, Canada, European Community (EC),UNDP, IDB, and World Bank to discuss a strategy for approaching President Jagdeo with a coordinated message on elections. The group proposes that U.S., UK, Canada and EC (ABCE Group) meet with Jagdeo Thursday July 13 to deliver a joint demarche and leave behind an aide memoire (see draft para 8). The objective is to urge him to publicly commit now to implement governance reforms within a specific timeframe after elections. ¶3. (C) The ABCE Group will use the meeting to remind Jagdeo of their consistent support for the election process. Second, they will urge him to exercise leadership in implementing overdue reforms to pull Guyana out of its political morasse. Third, they will highlight the "carrots" on offer and the implications of inaction. ¶4. (C) The incentives to encourage implementation include building these reform commitments into IDB country indicators -- benchmarks that would allow disbursement of debt relief and other upcoming programs. These same benchmarks could also be incorporated into the Millennium Challenge Account Threshold program and the EC's governance funding. However, the ABCE Group will make clear that by not acting: 1) Jagdeo risks jeopardizing assistance to Guyana; 2) These incentives would become conditions; and 3) The international community would make a public statement explaining its position. ¶5. (C) This plan calls for a united front by all international stakeholders, including CARICOM, OAS, and the Commonwealth Secretariat (ComSec). In addition, the ABCE Group is urging the OAS and ComSec long-term election observers now on the ground to issue statements about GECOM's ability to deliver free and fair elections. ¶6. (U) Post requests WHA concurrence with this course of action and the aide memoire by Wednesday July 12. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Post stongly believes that privately urging Jagdeo to make this public commitment to reform is the right tactic. As it currently stands, the political will to follow through on badly needed reform is lacking. Obtaining this commitment now, before elections, increases the probability of its success. The ABCE Group will seek similar commitments from other political parties. Guyana will not get itself on the right path to development until these reforms are implemented. Post is confident that there is full consensus among all international stakeholders on this plan -- bilaterals, IFIs, and multilaterals. As Ambassador recently wrote to A/S Shannon (ref A): "We all agree that meaningful political change in Guyana will only come about through coordinated, concerted international pressure . . . If we fail to press home this issue now, our successors will be back in the same place in five years when the next election is due." END COMMENT. ¶8. (SBU) Following is the draft aide memoire, as sent to London and Ottawa by British and Canadian High Commissioners. BEGIN TEXT: Aide memoire on implementing already agreed reforms to ensure democratic and accountable governance. The elections in Guyana are expected to happen soon. We have been supporting GECOM and we will continue to do so as it prepares to deliver free and fair elections to the people of Guyana. We have as you know been making public statements in support of the electoral preparations on the basis of the views from the international experts and observers. You have stated to a number of us that you intend to implement a reform agenda if you are re-elected. Building on already agreed reforms and more recent discussions, we understand the reform programme to include: a) firmly establishing Parliament as the primary forum for political debate and for rendering accounts to Guyanese citizens; b) implementing much needed and long overdue constitutional and electoral reforms; c) reforming the security sector and the judiciary so that the rule of law prevails. We believe that it would be opportune for you to commit publicly, before the elections, to this agenda. This commitment would be strengthened by detailing a timetable for the early implementation of the reforms, to present to the new Parliament within three months of its formation. We will be urging all political parties contesting the election to make a similar commitment. This would allow us to move forward in support of Guyana's development, either bilaterally or as members of international financial institutions, and further support the implementation of these reforms. END TEXT. BULLEN