GUYANA POLITICS BACK TO THE FORE: ELECTION PREVIEW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000663 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS WHA/CAR WHA/OAS S/CRS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GY SUBJECT: GUYANA POLITICS BACK TO THE FORE: ELECTION PREVIEW #10 REF: A. GEORGETOWN 594 ¶B. GEORGETOWN 371 ¶C. GEORGETOWN 328 ¶D. GEORGETOWN 181 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. Election-related activity hit a lull in the latter half of June as news of narco-criminal Shaheed "Roger" Khan's arrest transfixed Guyana. With Khan now in U.S. custody, election controversy is heating up again. Although many electoral preparations are progressing well, the main opposition party PNC/R has stepped up efforts to discredit the process. PNC/R leader Robert Corbin crashed this week's CARICOM Heads of Government meeting in St. Kitts to foment regional concern that things are not right in Guyana. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- Inching towards Elections: Revised Voter List Published -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) The Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) has printed and distributed the Revised List of Electors (RLE). The RLE incorporates changes to the voters list that arose during the May 2 to June 10 Claims and Objections exercise. June 30 kicked off the 21-day statutory period that the RLE must be on display. This is an important stage-gate in the election timeline, contributing to the positive tones emanating recently from the GECOM Chairman, the GoG, and the Joint International Technical Assessor (JITA) about progress on elections. Once the RLE display period ends on July 20, then production and certification of the final voters list (OLE) can begin. When the OLE is ready -- on July 25 according to an internal, unofficial GECOM work plan -- the Chairman notifies President Jagdeo, who can then announce a firm election date. ¶3. (U) There seems to be a rebound in confidence -- which had been flagging -- that, on technical grounds, elections can take place during the September 5-12 window. (Note: Even this optimistic timing is extra-constitutional; the outside date to stay true to the constitution is September 2 at the absolute latest.) -------------- -------------- Opposition Withdraws from Elections Commission ... Again -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) Having detected this mood of optimism, the PNC/R has predictably moved to quelch it. Two of the opposition-nominated GECOM Commissioners have "withdrawn" from GECOM once again and are threatening to resign -- a familiar gambit (ref B). This move could throw a wrench into election preparations. When commissioners walk out, it interrupts GECOM's work. ¶5. (U) The PNC/R has placed full-page advertisements in local newspapers explaining why the voters list is "flawed and illegal". (Note: International election experts and a recently concluded sampling exercise by a local observer group have repeatedly found the list to be clean enough to meet international standards. The opposition's motive is to remove emigrants from the list, but there is no legal basis for doing this. See refs A, C, D.) The PNC/R has also resorted to scathing criticism of the diplomatic community, and Ambassador in particular, for stating that GECOM is capable of delivering a free and fair election. -------------- Opposition's End Run to CARICOM Summit -------------- ¶6. (U) PNC/R leader Robert Corbin crashed this week's CARICOM Heads of Government meeting in St. Kitts to foment regional concern that things are not right in Guyana. He met with CARICOM SYG Edwin Carrington, Commonwealth Secretariat SYG Don McKinnon, and others on the margins to argue his case that the voters list is unacceptable. He also circulated a letter addressed to outgoing CARICOM Chair, T&T Prime GEORGETOWN 00000663 002 OF 002 Minister Manning, requesting that CARICOM send a "high-powered fact-finding" team to assess the situation in Guyana. The letter stated that the opposition's concerns must be "addressed urgently if we are to be spared yet another post-election trauma." Corbin is traveling on to London to raise funds, where he also intends to meet Lord Triesman of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office. ¶7. (U) President Jagdeo opened the door for Corbin's maneuver by not attending the annual CARICOM summit. Instead, he and ruling party PPP cabinet members fanned out across Guyana on an "outreach" mission to visit villages and hold town hall meetings. Although ostensibly intended for the Government to get in touch with the people, this initiative was blatant political campaigning by the PPP. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) As elections draw closer, the PNC/R continues to spout its hard-line rhetoric. Corbin's letter to CARICOM reiterates the thinly veiled threat of political violence if the opposition does not get its way (ref B). The PNC/R has backed itself into a corner over the voter list issue and risks marginalizing itself if elections go forward in early September. Corbin's direct appeal to CARICOM leaders is just another attempt to provoke foreign intervention on its side -- since the PNC/R has already failed to convince the international donor community that Guyana is unprepared for elections. Although the PNC/R might find some sympathetic ears in the region, CARICOM's response will likely be limited by its non-interventionist mantra. BULLEN