TIME HAS COME FOR COORDINATED PLAN ON GUYANA

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000499 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA/CAR WHA/OAS S/CRS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GY SUBJECT: TIME HAS COME FOR COORDINATED PLAN ON GUYANA ELECTIONS REF: A. GEORGETOWN 471 ¶B. GEORGETOWN 462 ¶C. GEORGETOWN 371 ¶D. GEORGETOWN 308 ¶E. GEORGETOWN 181 Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen For Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. The Commonwealth Secretariat's Special Envoy to Guyana briefed Ambassador and other donor representatives May 25 on his "depressing" visit to Guyana. The Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) conceded May 24 that it would not be able to hold elections before September 12, beyond even the amended constitutional due date. Ambassador and UK, Canada, EU (ABCE Group) chiefs of mission are in unanimous agreement that the time has come for the international community to get tough with both the GoG and the main opposition PNC/R party if there is to be an acceptable election process. This requires the ABCE Group capitals to take a coordinated, unified approach to the Guyana problem. END SUMMARY. -------------- Election Date Pushed Back (Again) -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The GECOM commissioners agreed May 19 to extend the Claims and Objections period by twelve days until June 10. (Note: Claims and Objections offers voters several weeks to verify at one of 102 offices that they are registered correctly or to point out that someone else does not belong on the list; the entire list is also searchable on GECOM's web-site). Opposition-nominated commissioners requested the twelve-day extension because three Claims and Objections offices in remote interior locations had opened late. The PPP-nominated commissioners agreed to the delay either because they believed doing otherwise would invite another court challenge to elections or as a sop to the opposition commissioners in the absence of any progress on the real stumbling block to elections -- verification of the voters list. ¶3. (SBU) GECOM's technical staff reworked their election timeline in light of the extension, resulting in a new plan to hold elections September 12 -- twelve days later than the August 31 date that GECOM had unconvincingly held to for the past six weeks. ¶4. (U) A September 12 polling date blows right through the new September 2 constitutional due date for elections (ref B). Even if the opposition's legal challenge to the constitutional tinkering that set the new date is dismissed (ref A),Guyana is now on course to have elections outside the parameters of the Constitution. -------------- -------------- Commonwealth Envoy's Grave Concerns on where Guyana Headed -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) ABCE Group received briefing May 25 from the Commonwealth Secretariat's Special Envoy to Guyana, Sir Paul Reeves, as he wrapped up his week-long visit to Guyana. Sir Paul unsuccessfully appealed for Jagdeo to accept his responsibility, as head of state, to continue speaking with the opposition leader Robert Corbin to find a solution to the election morass. Corbin, for his part, expressed only the slightest willingness to compromise. ¶6. (C) Sir Paul's main concern is that the election date is now a "movable feast". The latest September 12 throws Guyana squarely into an extra-constitutional situation. Although Jagdeo speaks loosely about invoking emergency powers, the GoG will soon lack a clear mandate to govern. ¶7. (C) Sir Paul -- whose disposition is in no way rash or alarmist -- has concluded that meaningful political change in Guyana will only come about through coordinated, concerted international pressure. The donor community in Georgetown agrees unanimously with this assessment. -------------- Next Step: Unified Message from ABCE Group -------------- ¶8. (C) The ABCE Group and UNDP ResRep will reconvene May 29 to discuss a path forward. The key objective is to formulate a unified message on elections. Donors would deliver this message to the GoG, the opposition parties, and ideally to the Guyanese public. Washington, London, Ottawa, and Brussels would deliver the same message to Guyana's ambassador/high commissioner in those capitals. The upcoming OAS General Assembly offers another opportunity to deliver the message on Guyana's elections. ¶9. (C) The content of the message will depend on how far the ABCE capitals are willing to exercise their two principal leverage points -- multilateral lending and bilateral aid. The threats of vetoing IDB loans, withholding debt forgiveness, and rethinking new aid programs are the strongest cards to bring the PPP to the negotiating table. These ideas are still very much in their embryonic stages. For instance, pressure must also be brought to bear on the recalcitrant opposition -- the point is not just to punish the GoG. Both the PPP and PNC/R share blame for the sad state of affairs that prevails in Guyana. Bullen