AFC ALLEGES MISCOUNT, CLAIMS PRIME MINISTER'S SEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 001162 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM GY SUBJECT: AFC ALLEGES MISCOUNT, CLAIMS PRIME MINISTER'S SEAT Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID M. ROBINSON FOR REASON 1.4(D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Alliance for Change (AFC) alleges that several ballot boxes were left off of the total tally in Region Ten, costing the party a seat in parliament. In a press conference, AFC leaders called on the ruling People's Progressive Party/CIVIC (PPP/C) to voluntarily relinquish the seat, which is currently held by Prime Minister (PM) Samuel Hinds. Although the AFC pointed out this alleged error to the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) in September, they waited until now--two months after results were announced--to make their claim public. GECOM and the government have not responded and may be hoping that the claim will blow over, but the AFC has promised to pursue the extra seat and scrutinize results from other regions for similar errors. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The international community was copied on the AFC's October 25 letter to Chief Elections Officer (CEO) Goocool Boodhoo, officially lodging the AFC's claim and laying out a chronology of the AFC's conversations with GECOM over the issue. The AFC claims that vote totals from six polling stations in Region Ten were documented with Statements of Poll, but not tallied in the official declaration of results. The AFC's recalculations award the Region Ten seat held by PPP/C PM Hinds to the AFC, bringing the AFC's parliamentary contingent up to six seats and reducing the PPP/C's allotment from 36 seats to 35 seats. Former People's National Congress Reform GECOM Commissioner Haslyn Parris privately scrutinized the AFC's data and concurred with the end result. ¶3. (U) In a press conference on November 1, AFC leaders Khemraj Ramjattan, Raphael Trotman, and Sheila Holder detailed their claim and called on the PPP/C to do the "right thing" and voluntarily give up the seat. Ramjattan added that legal action to force a seat reassignment could take two or three years--about half of this parliament's term. He warned that failure to reallocate the seat would erode the public's confidence that the 2006 elections were free and fair. The party referred to the alleged miscount as an "error," but carefully reserved the right to allege "fraud" later if necessary. The AFC also promised to scour the remaining results for similar problems, saying, "this is the first chink in the armor, and if we keep digging, we are sure to find more." ¶4. (SBU) While the AFC began raising questions with GECOM about the Region Ten totals as early as September 1, they waited two months to air their claim publicly. In press reports, Sheila Holder implied that the AFC had not wanted to ignite a potentially combustive post-election atmosphere with an immediate miscount claim. In taking their claim public now, the AFC cited frustration with private attempts to engage GECOM, urging from Region Ten supporters, and a desire to set the record straight. ¶5. (C) Neither GECOM nor the government has officially responded to the AFC's claim. The government-owned daily reported that GECOM discussed the issue and asked the CEO to prepare a report to guide their response. GECOM Chairman Steve Surujbally told PolOff privately that he considered the AFC's claims baseless and that GECOM was holding off on a response to avoid "embarrassing" the AFC. The government seems to be taking a hands-off approach, perhaps hoping that the issue will go away. ¶6. (C) The current dispute, however, may give the government the opening it needs to replace PM Hinds, whose time in government is widely understood to be limited. The PM's personal assistant Roopchand Bissessar told EmbOff that Minister of Transport and Hydraulics Robeson Benn was a likely candidate to replace Hinds. The Ministry of Transport and Hydraulics shares a building with the PM's offices, and Bissessar suggested that Benn had been named to that portfolio so that Hinds could groom him as his successor. ¶7. (C) Comment: Coming after election fever has largely died down, the AFC's claim has not made much of a splash. The AFC has made it a point of honor to pursue their claim, but after declaring the elections fair, correct, and complete, GECOM and the government will likely try to keep the record closed. For an already skeptical Guyanese populace, this incident may just reinforce the belief that truly clean elections are still a long way off for Guyana. End Comment. ROBINSON