GUYANA: OUR POST-ELECTION AGENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 001043 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016 TAGS: PGOV EAID PHUM KDEM OAS GY SUBJECT: GUYANA: OUR POST-ELECTION AGENDA REF: A. (A) GEORGETOWN 546 ¶B. (B) GEORGETOWN 595 ¶C. (C) GEORGETOWN 915 Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID ROBINSON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: President Bharrat Jagdeo starts his second five-year term with a firm parliamentary majority and apparent control over his own People's Progressive Party (PPP). He aligned his priorities in an October 2 conversation with the Ambassador as breaking Guyana's wave of violent crime and improving the investment climate, but foresees only a slow, ten-year climb out of poverty. Jagdeo wants help from the donor community, includig IDB debt relief, but may sidestep long-term reform. We should continue pushing for local elections, building parliamentary capacity, expanding civil society's role, and opening the media. Jagdeo may not enthusiastically embrace our longer-range agenda, but he is unlikely to oppose it. End Summary. ¶2. (C) During a relaxed conversation in his office with the Ambassador on October 2, Jagdeo said combating violent crime is his top priority. He added that the progressive speech he gave at the opening of parliament on September 28 was political rhetoric, necessary but not prescriptive. It outlined a hugely ambitious program to, among other things, furnish 80 percent of houses in Guyana with internet connections within five years. ¶3. (C) In contrast, Jagdeo told the Ambassador his early focus will be narrowly on increased and better policing, and called chronic insecurity the biggest impediment to investment. Jagdeo went on to note his previous administration's success in drawing down the public debt by about $900 million--and said he will push Mexico and Brazil to endorse IDB debt relief this time around--but suggested that under even idyllic circumstances Guyana faces at least a ten-year uphill slog out of poverty. (Note: Locally, the donor community, and particularly the British, Canadian and EU representatives, view the remaining loan as offering perhaps the only effective pressure on Jagdeo for constitutional reform and political inclusion. A former finance minister, Jagdeo continues to play that role in practice (refs A and B). End note). ¶4. (C) Ref C notes that Jagdeo may not be inclined to tackle extensive constitutional or other structural reforms in his second term, and this conversation seemed to support that view. He is a lame duck, public expectations for his performance are low, and political opposition is for now inconsequential. At the moment, he seems content to answer the daily headlines, a sad catalog of murder and abuse, and ignore a broader mandate. In fact, the British High Commissioner told the Ambassador later on October 2 that Jagdeo balked at a UK security sector reform proposal he had requested early in 2006 because it relied heavily on planning and training rather than providing material support for street patrols. A complementary IDB program also is on hold. ¶5. (C) Jagdeo's apparent bias for quick results and hardware may lessen his interest in a reform agenda, but it should not fundamentally alter our own action plan. Specifically, but not exclusively, we will continue to advocate for electoral and constitutional reform, including local elections probably in 2008; push for a greater role for civil society and the private sector in political debate and policy making; and encourage passage of the stalled broadcast bill to open the media and dislodge state control over radio. In the meantime, PEPFAR (the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief) continues to bridge the gap between Jagdeo's demand for immediacy and our focus on capacity building by molding effective partnerships between business, civic and public institutions that deliver goods and services to both urban and rural communities. ¶6. (C) Comment: More than a month after his win at the polls, Jagdeo has not crossed the threshold from politics to governance. The President says he is satisfied with progress in his first term, despite declining competitiveness and quality of life indicators, and has set his sights low for the second. In fact, since Jagdeo took office in 1999, growth has nearly flatlined at 0.5 percent. Attaching benchmarks or conditions to debt relief may be the only lever GEORGETOWN 00001043 002 OF 002 that gets a useful rise. End comment. ROBINSON