FRUSTRATED WITH MUGABE, BOTSWANA TO TIGHTEN BORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000653 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL SMIG KCRM GM ZI BC SUBJECT: FRUSTRATED WITH MUGABE, BOTSWANA TO TIGHTEN BORDER REF: A. 05 GABORONE 651 ¶B. 05 GABORONE 939 GABORONE 00000653 001.3 OF 003 Classified By: AMBASSADOR KATHERINE H. CANAVAN FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite its frustration with President Mugabe's misrule, the Government of Botswana has no proactive strategy for dealing with the problem. Caught between the opinion of most donor governments on one hand and its neighbors' demand for regional solidarity on the other, the GOB has uneasily settled on a policy of waiting, watching and not rocking the boat. Spill-over effects of the Mugabe regime's bad governance, however, could force the Government to change its tack, especially illegal immigration and the spread of hoof and mouth disease. President Mogae has ordered the border with Zimbabwe to be reinforced in order to limit the surreptitious movement of potentially diseased cattle across it and the Botswana Defense Force has enhanced its border patrols. Given the poor state of Botswana-Zimbabwe relations, this could revive the public acrimony last seen in 2003. As demonstrated by German President Kohler's visit, putting Botswana on the spot regarding Zimbabwe is prone to back-fire. END SUMMARY HOOF AND MOUTH OUTBREAK TRACED TO ZIMBABWE ¶2. (U) An outbreak of hoof and mouth disease (termed foot and mouth in the local press) has caused the most recent strain on Botswana-Zimbabwe relations. On April 26, the Botswana Meat Corporation announced that it had shut down its abattoirs after the confirmed discovery of over 200 cases of hoof and mouth disease in the area of Bobirwa, along the Zimbabwe border. Assistant Minister of Agriculture Peter Siele said that the outbreak likely resulted from the smuggling of meat or cattle from Zimbabwe. Farmers expressed frustration that the low-voltage electric fence being erected by the government along the border is often damaged by elephants and cut by illegal immigrants, leaving gaps through which stray cattle wander into Botswana, bringing with them hoof and mouth disease. The BMC lost over $1.5 million when it shut down for two weeks in 2003 after an outbreak of hoof and mouth disease that was also believed to stem from Zimbabwe. ¶3. (C) In a May 11 meeting, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mompati Merafhe told the Amassador that the Cabinet had decided to vaccinat cattle in the affected area, rather than slaugher them and re-stock as it had done during previus outbreaks. It reached this conclusion, he said, after recognizing that the border with Zimbabwe will be a potential source of hoof and mouth outbreaks "for a long time." The GOB intends to erect an additional 2.4 meter-high fence around the affected area to prevent contamination of the nearby Central District, the heartland of Botswana's beef industry. Because the EU market does not allow import of cattle vaccinated against the disease, he said, the Government is looking at prohibiting the import of beef into this area, which includes Botswana's third largest city, Selebi-Phikwe, in order to insure that cattle producers there have some market for their beef. GOB TO TIGHTEN BORDER WITH ZIMBABWE ¶4. (C) When asked if the GOZ was being helpful on this issue, Merafhe scoffed. "They are being absolutely dishonest," he replied, by denying the existence of hoof and mouth disease on their side of the border "even though we know they are affected". He shared that the GOB had offered to donate vaccines for the GOZ to administer but was told that they lacked petrol to distribute them to farmers. When the GOB then offered to send its own veterinary professionals to assist them, the GOZ declined. As a consequence of Zimbabwe's non-cooperative approach to the problem, Merafhe stated, the GOB has decided to tighten border security in this area. It is mobilizing additional soldiers and police personnel as well as reinforcing the fence where it has been damaged in order to minimize the surreptitious movement of cattle across the border. Merafhe estimated the costs of the GOB's response to the hoof and mouth outbreak at P100 million ($19 million). PATIENCE WITH ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION WEARING THIN ¶5. (U) As job-growth slows in Botswana, the increasing presence of illegal immigrants from Zimbabwe continues to rankle. Officials of the Botswana Police Service and Department of Immigration observed to Emboff that a significant portion of their time and budget goes to rounding up and deporting border jumpers. In March, immigration authorities deported over 1,100 illegal Zimbabwean immigrants. Recent meetings between MP Samson GABORONE 00000653 002.3 OF 003 Moyo and his constituents in the northeastern region elicited sharp criticism of the Government for failing to protect citizens from cross-border criminals. Although he is a ruling party MP, Moyo set the tone for these meetings by condemning the Government's reluctance to stand up to Harare and defend its interests. Conventional wisdom and anecdotal evidence from law enforcement officials attribute rising crime to desperate Zimbabweans (REF B). ¶6. (U) A sensational incident reported on April 28 suggests that officials in northeast Botswana are becoming fed up with illegal immigration and its attendant ills. A Member of Parliament in the area of Francistown reportedly discovered a Zimbabwean illegal immigrant tied to a post and abandoned at a village kgotla (town hall). When asked about the man, a local law enforcement official reportedly told the MP "these things (illegal immigrants) are causing trouble". The MP turned the man over to the immigration authorities but lamented to the press that an unfortunate incident such as this one makes it difficult to deny other allegations of brutality against illegal immigrants. ¶7. (C) Recent press reports quoted farmers along the border with Zimbabwe complaining that the Botswana Defence Force (BDF) patrols are ineffective against illegal immigrants. They alleged that BDF patrols zoom by in their trucks at the same time each day making it them easy to avoid. Realizing the problem, about two months ago, BDF Commander Lt. Gen. Fisher ordered a re-emphasis on foot patrols along the border. GOZ ARRESTS BOTSWANA JOURNALISTS ¶8. (C) In light of the high costs of illegal immigration daily borne by Botswana, the GOB found the GOZ's recent arrest of two Botswana journalists especially galling. On April 30, a Botswana Television journalist and cameraman were arrested in Zimbabwe for entering the country illegally and working as journalists without the necessary permits. They were released on bail on May 2 and are expected to appear in court in Zimbabwe on May 23. In a May 3 conversation with Emboffs, Ernest Mpofu, Permanent Secretary for Political Affairs in the Office of the SIPDIS President, said that the GOZ made a mountain out of a molehill, asserting that the GOB merely would have dropped the journalists on the other side of the border in such a situation. Given the volume of Zimbabweans entering Botswana illegally, this over-reaction and the High Commission's refusal to assist irked the GOB, he said. FRUSTRATED WITH ZIMBABWE ¶9. (C) Mpofu prefaced his remarks with a summary of the recent tensions between Botswana and Zimbabwe - including allegations in the regional press that the GOB was in cahoots with the US and UK to oust Mugabe and had allowed the US to establish an airbase on its territory (REF A). Although there has not been a recurrence of such propaganda, these incidents left the GOB both distrustful of the GOZ and wary of provoking its ire. Mpofu observed that because Botswana was not "in the bush" with the Zimbabwean freedom fighters to the same degree that South Africans, Zambians, and others were, it is an easy target for such unwarranted attacks. Consequently, the GOB feels acute pressure to conform to its neighbors' expectations of solidarity based on a history of struggle that Botswana does not fully share. ¶10. (C) Following a spate of anti-Botswana propaganda in the Zimbabwean press in 2003, the GOZ approached the GOB to ask whether President Mogae could invite President Mugabe for an unpublicized visit, Mpofu recounted. When the GOB did so, however, the GOZ declined, much to the exasperation of Botswana's MFA. Mpofu later learned that Zimbabwe's MFA had never conveyed the invitation to Mugabe, implying that this was some ploy to further sow discord in their bilateral relationship. As a result of these bizarre machinations, Mpofu said, President Mogae refused to renew an invitation to Mugabe insisting that any visit to Botswana must be at Mugabe's initiative. GOZ'S SELF-IMPOSED ISOLATION ¶11. (C) When asked by Emboff his thoughts on how the US could promote constructive change in Zimbabwe, Mpofu indicated that the GOZ had purposely insulated itself from positive influences. Mpofu recounted an incident "for your ears only" in which the former President of Tanzania Benjamin Mkapa had visited Botswana en route to Zimbabwe. Suspecting that Mkapa was bearing an unwanted message from the Commonwealth, he said, Harare told Mkapa not to come, forcing him to extend his stay in Botswana by another day. GABORONE 00000653 003.3 OF 003 ¶12. (C) Further illustrating Harare's willingness to cut itself off even from its neighbors, Mpofu lamented that Zimbabwe had "shot itself in the foot" by assigning to Gaborone late last year a High Commissioner who was evidently indifferent toward Botswana. Citing the recent incident in which two Botswana journalists were arrested in Zimbabwe, Mpofu explained that the MFA had approached Zimbabwean High Commissioner Mandigora to seek his assistance in resolving the matter. Mandigora, however, had declined to follow-up on the matter and delegated it to a junior colleague. This incident confirmed to Mpofu the GOZ's non-cooperative disposition toward Botswana. KEEP MOGAE'S OUTBURST AGAINST SANCTIONS IN CONTEXT ¶13. (C) Emboffs queried Mpofu on President Mogae's criticism of sanctions against Zimbabwe during a joint press conference with visiting German President Horst Kohler on April 12. President Mogae characterized these measures as counter productive. Such a "hostile" approach, he argued, made it impossible for the Mugabe regime to engage in dialog and negotiation toward a positive change there. Mpofu stressed that, before Kohler had arrived, the GOB had requested that the Germans not publicly criticize Zimbabwe during the trip in order not to create difficulties for Botswana with its neighbors. Unlike President Bush, who respected a similar request during his visit in 2003, Kohler did not oblige. As a result, Mogae was forced to choose between the disapproval of Botswana's neighbors, for letting his criticisms of Mugabe go unchallenged, and disapproval of the West, for speaking up against sanctions. He chose to assuage his neighbors by questioning the utility of sanctions. ¶14. (C) Mpofu was quick to remind us that, prior to this incident, Botswana had "never" issued such statements and only did so in April because the GOB felt the Germans had forced their hand. Moreover, he said, during closed-door SADC meetings, President Mogae has gone out of his way to tell Mugabe that the region needs to see better governance in Zimbabwe. Emboff stressed that Mogae need not have criticized our limited sanctions in order to avert the displeasure of its neighbors and urged that the GOB avoid such statements in the future. DESPITE FRUSTRATIONS, MUST RESPECT ZIMBABWE'S "SENSITIVITIES" ¶15. (C) As much as the GOB is frustrated by the Mugabe regime, it cannot ignore Zimbabwe's sensitivities. When informed of Mission's plans to celebrate the twenty-fifth anniversary of Voice of America at the IBB transmission station in Selebi-Phikwe, Minister Merafhe reminded Ambassador Canavan of the GOZ protests that the VOA "beams hostile information into their country." Although the GOB disapproves of many of the things taking place in Zimbabwe, it "must maintain a functional, constructive relationship with" the GOZ. COMMENT ¶16. (C) If effectively implemented, the GOB's decision to reinforce the security of its border with Zimbabwe on account of the hoof and mouth outbreak will mark the first time in the past few years that the GOB has taken significant action to protect its national interests against threats to it emanating from Zimbabwe. Given that the GOZ has denied the presence of hoof and mouth on its side of the border adjacent to the affected areas in Botswana, such a decision could elicit accusations that it was motivated by a desire to stem the influx of illegal immigrants. As described by Merafhe and Mpofu, the bilateral relationship is already characterized by frustration and distrust. An attempt to tighten border security could resurrect the kind of rancor seen last in 2003 surrounding the visit of President Bush. ¶17. (C) As the incident between President Mogae and German President Kohler demonstrates, attempts to publicly put the GOB on the spot regarding Zimbabwe are prone to back-fire. Instead, Mission will continue to privately press upon it the costs to Botswana and the region of tolerating Mugabe's abuses. CANAVAN