SPD Gains Majority in Rheinland-Pfalz; Baden-

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002124 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR GM SUBJECT: SPD Gains Majority in Rheinland-Pfalz; Baden- Wuerttemberg CDU/FDP Coalition Expands Lead REF: A) Frankfurt 1273; B) 2005 Frankfurt 8530 Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: March 26 state elections strengthened both Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) Minister-President Kurt Beck (SPD/Social Democrats) and Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W) Minister-President Guenther Oettinger (CDU/Christian Democrats). Beck's popularity gave the ruling SPD an absolute seat majority and handed conservatives their worst defeat ever in the state, prompting CDU standard-bearer Christoph Boehr to resign. In B-W, Oettinger narrowly missed an absolute majority and both the CDU and FDP picked up seats, ensuring a comfortable majority in the new parliament. The B-W SPD lost a quarter of its voters, casting in doubt the future of standard-bearer Ute Vogt. The Greens polled strongly in B-W but missed the five-percent threshold in R-P. Observers expressed relief at the poor showing of far-right and far-left parties in both states. END SUMMARY. -------------- Rheinland-Pfalz -------------- ¶2. (U) Interim results for Rheinland-Pfalz (2001 for comparison): 2006 (2001) -------------- -------------- SPD: 45.6% (44.7%) CDU: 32.8% (35.3%) FDP: 8.0% (7.8%) Greens: 4.6% (5.2%) WASG: 2.5% - ¶3. (SBU) With 45.6% of the vote, M-P Beck and Social Democrats achieved the unthinkable -- an absolute majority of the seats (53 seats out of 101) in historically conservative Rheinland-Pfalz (the home state of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl). Beck's broad popularity and voter satisfaction with the governing SPD/FDP coalition were key to the SPD's strong showing. The SPD can now rule alone, although Beck said he would talk with the FDP/Free Democrats about continuing their present coalition (in power since 1994). Losers included R-P conservatives (who polled only 32.8%, an all-time low) and Greens (who failed to cross the five percent hurdle after 18 years in parliament). Accepting responsibility for what CDU activists called a "disastrous" showing, Christoph Boehr announced his resignation as CDU state chairman and caucus chief. CDU Landtag members Christian Baldauf and Josef Rosenbauer are considered the most likely contenders to succeed Boehr as caucus chairman. -------------- Baden-Wuerttemberg -------------- ¶4. (U) The CDU, Greens, and FDP all posted gains in Baden- Wuerttemberg (2001 for comparison): 2006 (2001) -------------- -------------- CDU: 44.2% (44.8%) SPD: 25.2% (33.3%) Greens: 11.7% (7.7%) FDP: 10.7% (8.1%) WASG: 3.1% - Republikaner: 2.5% (4.4%) ¶5. (SBU) The B-W CDU narrowly missed an absolute majority (by one seat) and will hold 69 of the 139 seats in the new parliament. The election was a debacle for Social Democrats who lost a quarter of their voters. SPD standard-bearer Ute Vogt faces an uncertain future. The Greens edged out the FDP to become third strongest party. M-P Oettinger announced that he would hold coalition negotiations with all parties in parliament. Greens standard-bearer Winfried Kretschmann welcomed talks with Oettinger, arguing that a "Black/Green" coalition would be more attractive to voters than the current CDU/FDP administration. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) State political observers in both states viewed the election results as an endorsement of the status quo and the grand coalition in Berlin, with M-P Oettinger and especially M-P Beck as the clear winners. Oettinger's strong showing will allow him to cast off the shadow of predecessor Erwin Teufel and bring order to a ruling party known for recent in-fighting. While Oettinger has hinted over the years that he could work with the FRANKFURT 00002124 002 OF 002 Greens, the FDP/Liberals remain the CDU's most likely coalition partner. ¶7. (SBU) The elections will mean far-reaching changes for state opposition parties. The R-P Christian Democrats look set to re- organize themselves under a new leadership team (NOTE: on election night, conservative party insiders were scrambling to mobilize support for new leadership while young conservatives told us they welcomed the debacle as a clarion call for "revolution" within the party's ranks -- END NOTE). In B-W, Social Democrats are likely to continue in-fighting given that standard-bearer Ute Vogt shows few signs of leaving the political scene. Greens are struggling to come to terms with their divergent fortunes, having exited parliament in R-P versus a near record showing in neighboring B-W. ¶8. (SBU) Representatives of all four major political parties expressed relief on election night that, despite low voter participation (below 60% in both states),the left-wing WASG (Labor and Social Justice Party) and far-right Republikaner remained weak, with minimal impact on election outcomes. END COMMENT. PASI