UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 001273

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR GM
SUBJECT: March 26 Elections in Rheinland-Pfalz/Baden-Wuerttemberg
-- Campaign Update

REF: A) 2005 Frankfurt 8530

Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With four weeks until state elections in
Rheinland-Pfalz and Baden-Wuerttemberg, polls show both state
governments in the lead. In Rheinland-Pfalz, the SPD/FDP
coalition (Social Democratic/Free Democratic) is banking on the
popularity of long-time Minister-President Kurt Beck (SPD). In
Baden-Wuerttemberg, the CDU/FDP (Christian Democrat/Free
Democratic) government of new Minister-President Guenther
Oettinger is still leading in the polls despite CDU in-fighting
as well as the largest public-sector strike in fourteen years.
The Left Party (WASG) remains under the five-percent threshold to
gain parliamentary representation in both states; its entry into
either parliament would complicate coalition-building. END
SUMMARY.

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Baden-Wuerttemberg: CDU/FDP Coalition
Leading Despite Strike, In-Fighting
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2. (SBU) A recent poll (published February 10) gives the Baden-
Wuerttemberg CDU/FDP government a solid lead:

CDU 49%
SPD 30%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%
Left/WASG 2%

Minister-President (M-P) Oettinger's personal popularity rating,
in contrast, remains low at 43 percent -- versus 37 percent for
SPD competitor Ute Vogt -- evidence of his continued struggle to
gain the mantle of Minister-President since entering office in
April 2005. The recent resignation of B-W Social Minister and
longtime Oettinger confidante Andreas Renner (stemming from
Renner's criticism of the Catholic Church over gay rights)
highlights the ideological divide within the B-W CDU. While M-P
Oettinger and his allies seek to make the CDU attractive for
young and urban voters, conservative supporters of former M-P
Teufel are trying to stall the "modernization" process. Critics
see the state's recently introduced naturalization guidelines --
which purportedly ask many (largely Muslim) immigrants to reveal
their ideological beliefs -- as a sop to conservative rural
voters in the lead-up to the election. (NOTE: in a meeting with

heads of consulates accredited to Baden-Wuerttemberg, State
Secretary Rudolf Boehmler downplayed the affair and opined that

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the media had distorted an innocuous administrative guideline.
END NOTE). While the mood within the state CDU remains sour --
and the public sector strike (Septel) is bad news for M-P
Oettinger -- the party continues to poll well in part based on
the popularity of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) nationally.


3. (SBU) The B-W SPD has failed to capitalize on the CDU's
problems while M-P Oettinger's new day-care initiative has
neutralized a key election issue for Social Democrats. With a
grand coalition in Berlin, the state campaign is focusing more on
personalities than national policies. At a party convention in
Stuttgart on February 4, B-W SPD standard-bearer Ute Vogt
attacked Oettinger for insensitivity on labor issues: "A
Minister-President who calls (DaimlerChrysler) job cuts a
'fitness program' is not the right person for the job." National
SPD chairman Matthias Platzeck also attacked Oettinger's
leadership qualities: "The B-W CDU has sold its heart and people
are turning their backs ... the trust is gone."

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Rheinland-Pfalz: Ruling Coalition Still in the Lead
-------------- --------------


4. (SBU) Recent polls give Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) M-P Beck a clear
but narrow lead:

SPD 42%
CDU 36%
FDP 8%
Greens 6%
Left/WASG 4%

The R-P SPD is up three points since December 2005, while the CDU
is struggling to hold its ground. Job satisfaction ratings also
indicate the SPD's advantage: more than half of the electorate
(56 percent) favors a continuation of the SPD/FDP government;
only 34 percent express dissatisfaction. Beck remains popular,
whereas CDU opponent Christoph Boehr has struggled (as in 2001)
to gain public sympathy. During a farewell call by the Consul

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General, Beck said he was confident of victory as long as the
election remained focused on state and not national issues.
(COMMENT: Merkel's high approval rating and the CDU's relatively
strong showing in Rheinland-Pfalz in September 2005 suggest that
the CDU remains a serious contender despite Beck's popularity.
END COMMENT.)


5. (SBU) The Rheinland-Pfalz FDP's stated desire to continue its
coalition with the Social Democrats is a major stumbling block
for the CDU. At its convention on February 4, the R-P FDP
announced that it would remain in coalition with the SPD even if
the CDU becomes the strongest party. R-P FDP Chief Rainer
Bruederle justified the decision by stating, "after 15 years of
outstanding governance, everything speaks for a continuation of
this successful cooperation." At the same time, he rejected
participation in a "traffic light" coalition (SPD, FDP, Greens).
R-P Christian Democrats have profited little from Chancellor
Merkel's popularity, reflecting in part Boehr's perceived
inability to connect with voters.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (SBU) There are several wildcards that could spell trouble for
state governments despite current polling figures. If the Left
Party/WASG enters either state parliament, it will dilute seat
totals for other parties, opening the possibility that only a
grand coalition would have a stable majority. Federal Labor
Minister Franz Muentefering's proposal to increase the retirement
age to 67 is unpopular and could hurt SPD candidates (several SPD
contacts lamented the announcement's timing). The political
right is a factor in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where some fear that the
new immigration questionnaire and the Mohammed caricature
controversy could fuel anti-foreigner sentiments and motivate
hard-line CDU supporters to vote for far-right parties (along the
lines of the 1992 and 1996 state elections). END COMMENT.


7. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin.

PASI