TAJIKISTAN'S TELECOM SECTOR: PROMISING, BUT NOT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000673 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EB, S/P E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON EINV EINT SOCI CH IR TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S TELECOM SECTOR: PROMISING, BUT NOT TROUBLE-FREE DUSHANBE 00000673 001.2 OF 003 (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly. Not for public Internet. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Tajikistan's mobile and Internet telecommunications market is one of the most dynamic and competitive sectors of the economy. The mobile sector could grow 10-20 percent monthly since only 5% of the market currently have cell phones. Internet growth also will increase with the completion of fiber optic lines. The upcoming privatization of state-run Tajik Telecom, which controls the digital fixed-line network and routes most international calls, is prompting some government officials to reassert control over the entire sector. Private mobile companies have temporarily stalled the Ministry of Communication's attempt to establish a single gateway, but the lack of a truly independent regulatory body is troublesome. The United States can play a private and public role in providing the mobile and internet market with hardware and software, aiding regulatory reform, and advocating for transparency leading up to Tajik Telecom's privatization. END SUMMARY. DYNAMIC SECTOR IN MOBILE, INTERNET SERVICES ¶2. (U) Liberal licensing policy, comparatively low market entrance costs, and low penetration rates in both the mobile and fixed-line telecom market drive growth in Tajikistan's telecom sector. Although cellular subscriber rates are increasing on average 10-20 percent per month is between 10 and 20 percent, only five percent of the population had mobile phones as of March 2006. Customs duty on telecommunications equipment rarely exceeds 15 percent. In the past year most mobile operators leapfrogged and introduced 3G and Next Generation advanced wireless networks -- in addition to providing standard Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM.) ¶3. (SBU) Competition is robust among the 10 mobile providers servicing 400,000-500,000 Tajik subscribers as of March 2006. Of the top four companies, Babilon Mobile has 200,000 subscribers, Indigo Somoncom has 80,000, Indigo Tajikistan has 70,000, and Mobil Lines of Tajikistan (MLT) has 70,000. Indigo Somoncon provides northern Tajikistan with cell service, and its sister company Indigo Tajikistan covers the south. Indigo is owned 40 percent by American MCT Corporation and 60 percent by the Aga Khan Foundation. Indigo Tajikistan had a $4 million profit in 2004 and close to $7 million profit in 2005; its average monthly customer bill was $20. Babilon Mobile also has some undisclosed private American investment, according to its chairman, and its goal is to increase its subscribers to 350,000 by the end of the year. ¶4. (U) Internet access growth is expected to increase substantially when the country is fully integrated into the Trans-Asia-Europe (TAE) fiber optic highway, potentially as soon as the end of 2006. Currently, 12 Internet service providers exist -- 10 commercial and two government -- and the government's goal is to have at least one computer in every secondary school classroom by 2007. Babilon Telecommunications (the parent company of Babilon Mobile) has pushed hard to expand Internet access by opening more than 50 internet cafes throughout the country. Its next step is to push for users to become subscribers. Most Tajiks use the over 400 internet cafes to make cheap, but low quality phone calls over the Internet or to play networking games, according to the local Civil Initiative on Internet Policy Director. DUSHANBE 00000673 002.2 OF 003 TAJIK TELECOM CONTROLS FIXED-LINE, INTERNATIONAL MARKET ¶5. (U) State-run Tajik Telecom controls the fixed-line market in the country. During 2003-2005, it upgraded from obsolete analog to digital equipment provided by China's Zhong Xing Telecommunication Equipment (ZTE) company and Iranian Parstel. Communications quality since has dramatically improved. A large part of the network modernization was funded by a 2001 $13 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which Tajik Telecom begins paying back October ¶2006. Tajik Telecom is slated to be privatized in 2007 under the national privatization plan. The company has 300,000 fixed-line subscribers. ¶6. (U) Tajik Telecom's monopoly of much of the telecom sector hinders efficient operation for most mobile operators. Almost all mobile operators are required to route their international calls through Tajik Telecom, because making separate international phone calls requires a government license. In February, only cellular operators affiliated with Tajik Telecom and Babilon Mobile were granted this license. Indigo Tajikistan is still waiting for its application to be approved. Moreover, Tajik Telecom does not pay for its outgoing calls to local mobile providers, but still charges the mobile providers for all incoming calls to Tajik Telecom. This violates "Calling Party Pays" (CPP) telecom community standards. Legislation is pending to force Tajik Telecom to begin paying. GOVERNMENT INTERFERENCE INCREASING ¶7. (SBU) Interest in getting a larger share of the telecom pie for some government officials is growing within the industry. The Ministry of Communications unilaterally announced in February the installation of a single unified gateway for all mobile and Internet communications. The Ministry publicly claimed that routing all communications traffic through one switch would improve the quality, accurately assess usage fees by all users, and capture "gray" traffic that circumvents the system. Ministry officials also said the unified gateway would help the country's national security committee and interior services better monitor telephone and internet traffic. Minister Zuvaidov himself publicly advocated the single gateway. ¶8. (SBU) Prompt public outcry from mobile and Internet operators -- as well as the deputy of Parliament -- appears to have stalled this initiative. The operators observed that a unified gateway would degrade the quality of calls by going through another node and raise the service cost to consumers, and they appealed to Tajikistan's anti-monopoly committee. How Tajik Telecom would prioritize each company's traffic also was questionable. Moreover, government officials could not respond adequately to the question of what would happen if the gateway broke down, which effectively would bring down all communications in the country. As of March, the Ministry of Communication has agreed to re-examine its proposal in a larger committee with representatives from other government ministries and the private sector. Zuvaidov gave an interview, acknowledging the need for more examination, and later told PolOff they would consider having a commercial gateway in addition to the state-controlled. ¶9. (SBU) It is troubling that Tajikistan does not have a truly independent telecom regulatory entity. In 2004, the Communications Regulation Agency (CRA) was created within the Ministry of Communications. The CRA relies on the Ministry for DUSHANBE 00000673 003.2 OF 003 its budget. In a meeting with PolOff March 30, the symbiotic connection to the Ministry was obvious in CRA Director Anvar Mamajanov's advocacy for the unified gateway. A March 31 meeting with First Deputy Minister of Communications Beg Zuhurov confirmed the lack of understanding of how regulation needed to be transparent and independent of the government. Subsequent private meetings with the heads of Babilon, Indigo Tajikistan, and Indigo Somoncon indicated that key officials at Tajik Telecom and the Ministry of Communications almost had succeeded in quickly pushing this initiative through (the decree reportedly was awaiting President Rahmonov's signature) as a fait accompli. POLITICS OF PRIVITAZATION ¶10. (SBU) There is a large degree of cynicism that the gateway concept is solely related to Tajik Telecom's privatization. In a March 1 meeting with EmbOffs, the administrative head of Tajik Telecom, Dr. Jafar Rustamov, said that he will "make Tajik Telecom as big and tasty a pie as possible," but it is up to the government to decide how much of that pie they want to sell. (If just a one-cent surcharge per minute on routing all current traffic through a unified gateway were imposed, for example, that would be almost $5,000 extra per minute going to Tajik Telecom, if all mobile users were using the system.) The EBRD is growingly increasingly frustrated with the Ministry of Communication stalling regulatory reform, and believes that vested interests are driving telecom policy leading up to Tajik Telecom's privatization. In addition, the Minister of Communication appears to be able to act with impunity in the government -- hence the unilateral implementation of the Chinese ZTE-supplied router and quick move to initiate the unified gateway policy. Moreover, ZTE and the Huawei Corporation have won the tenders for upgrading Tajik Telecom's network and clearly have good connections in both the Ministry of Communications and Tajik Telecom. ¶11. (SBU) COMMENT: Communications is a key part of the Secretary Rice's Infrastructure Integration Initiative for SIPDIS Greater Central Asia. Although the Chinese dominate supplies to Tajik Telecom with communications hardware, U.S. investment has created a more transparent environment in the mobile and Internet market. There is a private and public role for the United States to play in providing the mobile and internet markets with hardware and software, aiding regulatory reform, and advocating for transparency leading up to Tajik Telecom's privatization. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND