TAJIKISTAN: IRPT LEADER CLOSELY WATCHED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000408 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/2/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KISL KDEM TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: IRPT LEADER CLOSELY WATCHED REF: DUSHANBE 151 CLASSIFIED BY: RICHARD HOAGLAND, AMBASSADOR, DUSHANBE, TAJIKISTAN, DEPARTMENT OF STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Muhiddin Kabiri, First Deputy Chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT) will travel to the United States March 8 to deliver a speech at Columbia University on the state of religion and politics in Tajikistan after the wave of "color revolutions" in other post-Soviet countries. Kabiri told PolOff February 27 the government disapproved of his trip to the United States. ¶2. (C) When Kabiri notified Tajikistan's Parliamentary Speaker of his impending absence, the Speaker questioned why Kabiri had to attend the lecture in New York. Despite Kabiri's insistence that he would go with or without the Speaker's permission, the Speaker insisted he himself would consult with the President's Office about Kabiri's trip. Austria's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also invited Kabiri to speak in Vienna in March, and the Speaker instructed Kabiri to attend Austria's conference instead of the lecture at Columbia University. According to Kabiri, the Tajik government suspects the United States is inviting perceived opposition leaders, like himself, to come and engage in discussions about possibly stirring up a "color revolution" in Tajikistan. The President's Office ultimately consented to Kabiri's travel, but when he returns from the United States he will have to submit financial records and a report of his trip's activities. ¶3. (C) During a recent Parliament session, Kabiri brought up the problem of BBC's registration and advocated for more varied media sources. Fellow parliamentarians chastised him for even bringing up the issue and dismissed it simply as BBC's failure to follow Tajik laws, the standard government line. In public and private, government officials have accused Kabiri of being an "agent of influence" for the West. Because of this reputation, Kabiri says he has periodically made comments criticizing U.S. foreign policy in the media to fend off critics' attacks. In meetings with EmbOffs he often mentions how he is always trying to stay out of jail, and out of trouble with the government. He has also mentioned how he sees the IRPT as a "loyal" opposition party. ¶4. (C) Kabiri told PolOff the Russian Ambassador Abdulatipov's public statements supporting Rahmonov for re-election offended him (reftel). Mostly, he was disappointed that his fellow parliamentarians did not react. He posited that if a representative of the United States made such a comment, it would be seen as interference and many would be outraged. Kabiri explained this attitude reflects a broader outlook in Parliament. According to him, most Tajik officials view Tajikistan as a protectorate of Russia with Rahmonov as a puppet leader and Abdulatipov the General Governor of Tajikistan. Recently, one parliamentarian was overheard commenting, "If Rahmonov can't solve this problem for me, I will go to Putin." ¶5. (C) COMMENT: The government's attempts at marginalizing the IRPT's Kabiri as an "Agent of the West" seem a bit ironic, and out of step with global politics. Instead, the government may fear the IRPT's genuine popularity-Kabiri is one of the few politicians outside the President's party with a true base of support. In the months leading to the Presidential election, the government may step up it efforts to discredit and marginalize Kabiri. To counter this, and save his image, he may feel the need to increase his public comments against the West. However, he is still a moderate Islamic leader who understands DUSHANBE 00000408 002 OF 002 Western democratic values. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND