RAHMONOV WINS TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 79.3 PERCENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 002038 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL NSC FOR MERKEL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI SUBJECT: RAHMONOV WINS TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 79.3 PERCENT REF: DUSHANBE 2033 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: President Rahmonov won a third term with 79.3 percent of the vote, according to preliminary results. Embassy observers deployed throughout Tajikistan witnessed the gamut of election practices from completely transparent tabulation processes to blatant ballot stuffing by commission officials. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have presented differing preliminary statements and will issue full-length reports in the coming weeks. Those official reports should serve as reminders that work towards democratic institution building must continue immediately, rather than waiting for the next election. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) President Rahmonov won the Tajik presidential election November 6 with 79.3 percent of the vote, according to the Central Commission for Elections and Referenda (CCER). Although 79.3 percent is an overwhelming majority, this represents a drastic decrease from his 96 percent landslide in 1999. Olimjon Boboyev, Party of Economic Reforms, received 6.2 percent of the vote, Amir Qaraqulov, Agrarian Party of Tajikistan, 5.3 percent, Ismoil Talbakov, Communist Party, 5.1 percent and Abduhalim Ghafforov, Socialist Party, 2.8 percent. Some speculate the government distorted the results to give the appearance of pluralism and democracy. ¶3. (U) The CCER reported a 91 percent voter turnout with over three million eligible people voting. Embassy observers remarked that many voters appeared proud and enthusiastic to exercise their right to vote. Some precincts even genuinely had 100% voter turnout. Voting in Tajikistan can be a community event, also evident by the festive atmosphere of music, dancing and food at some polling stations. EMBASSY STAFF OBSERVE VARYING POLLING PRACTICES ¶4. (U) Embassy observers deployed throughout Tajikistan, in coordination with the OSCE observers. In addition to embassy staff's observations reported in reftel, EmbOffs experiences varied widely. Despite remaining problems, both embassy and other international observers agreed that overall, the technical, organizational and procedural aspects of the election improved on past elections. Voters commented to Embassy observers that U.S.-funded IFES television and radio spots taught them how to vote correctly. At some precinct and district election commissions, the voting was completely transparent and observers were allowed to closely watch the entire process. These same precincts also followed rules and regulations explicitly during tabulation. More women were seen voting in certain regions in this year's presidential election than last year's parliamentary election. This may have been a sign of women feeling more empowered, or possibly because many men were abroad working as labor migrants, so the ratio was skewed. Across the board, women voters were out in large numbers and a range of age groups also turned out to vote. ¶5. (SBU) Soviet mentality and cultural nuances still impeded the election. Observers saw many examples of improper practices such as family voting and proxy voting, as well as classic ballot box stuffing. Embassy staff reported that some district election commissions would not permit international observers watch the vote counting process. In addition, some observers suspected district election commissions changed reported voting numbers on the protocols after the individual precincts delivered their totals. Embassy observers also noted that at some polling stations in regions such as Kulob, Ministry of Interior or Ministry of Security officials were present and took down the names of observers for "security purposes." In some areas, Ministry of Security officials had spoken to polling DUSHANBE 00002038 002 OF 003 commission workers prior to election day. TAJIKS VOTE IN RUSSIA ¶6. (U) U.S. Embassy Moscow PolOff met with Tajik Embassy Political Officer Zohir Saidov in Moscow and observed polling station activities. Some estimates put Tajikistan's number of labor migrants as high as one million working in former Soviet Union countries, mainly in Russia. Saidov noted that up to 8,000 Tajiks were expected to vote in the eight stations across Russia with 3,500 expected to vote in Moscow. Embassy Moscow PolOff observed that all of the voters were men. According to Saidov, men were transported from the environs to the polling station in order to vote. Only one truck brought women to vote. CIS AND OSCE- DIFFERING VIEWPOINTS ON THE ELECTION ¶7. (U) The Commonwealth of Independent States Observation Mission and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe issued opposing statements on the Tajik election. The predictably forgiving CIS mission, as expected, declared that the election was fair, democratic and transparent. CIS observers noted that several technical mistakes occurred during the voting process, however, the mistakes were minor and did not influence the outcome of the election. The mission announced that this presidential election was an improvement over previous elections. ¶8. (U) On the other hand, the OSCE's preliminary report sent a strong message. "The lack of any serious campaign and credible alternatives undermined this election to a degree that it did not provide an adequate test of Tajikistan's commitment for democratic elections," said the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Delegation. In addition, the organization criticized the state- controlled media, high level of family and proxy voting, the use of negative voting (meaning voters had to cross off the four candidates they didn't choose),the reliance of candidates on state-funded campaigns and the questionable number of signatures (165,000 each) candidates collected in order to run in the election. The OSCE also recommended Tajikistan improve its legal framework and implement previously recommended OSCE/ODIHR changes in order to conduct democratic elections. ¶9. (U) Under a previously arranged gentleman's agreement, neither mission commented on the other's findings, however the OSCE did note that all CIS countries are also OSCE members. The OSCE's criteria should also be Tajikistan's standards because Tajikistan is a member state. Anticipating the OSCE's comments, Rahmonov said yesterday that Tajikistan is working to meet OSCE standards. "As for OSCE standards~ we are developing; we have started the process [of meeting them]. Of course this is not without problems~ However, there have been some results over these 15 years." He also noted, "Tajikistan is a country where more than 99 percent of the population is Muslim. We have a different culture, and this has to be taken into account," Rahmonov said, and then criticized Western nations for double standards on democratization. DEMOCRACY NEEDS TO START BEFORE ELECTION DAY ¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: Although there may have been improvements from previous elections, democratic reform is an ongoing process and should have started well before election day. The election was not indicative of the real state of democracy in Tajikistan. In the years leading up to the election, the government managed to weaken opposition parties, stifle media and limit freedom of speech. With relatively unknown candidates challenging Rahmonov on the election ballot, and openly praising him during their DUSHANBE 00002038 003 OF 003 "campaign speeches," the people had little real choice. The true test of democratic progress in Tajikistan will be how the government moves forward after inauguration day November 18. Who will Rahmonov replace in his new cabinet? Will the government pass the controversial law on religion and law on NGO activity which restrict freedom of religion and civil society? The United States and international community must continue to work to strengthen democratic institutions in Tajikistan. END COMMENT. JACOBSON