THREE WEEKS OUT: OBSERVER MISSION DEPLOYING WITH MORE VIGOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001935 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR MERKEL; STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TI SUBJECT: THREE WEEKS OUT: OBSERVER MISSION DEPLOYING WITH MORE VIGOR THAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS REF: A) DUSHANBE 1773 B) DUSHANBE 1848 C) DUSHANBE 1863 D) DUSHANBE 1931 CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Ann Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dushanbe, STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Three weeks out, Tajikistan shows few visible signs of an impending presidential election. Aside from a two-story poster of President Rahmonov (resplendent with five by two foot eyebrows) on Dushanbe's main boulevard, campaign materials are conspicuously absent in the capital. PolOffs saw posters for all five candidates at a district election commission headquarters (Ref D). Media coverage, of the president or other candidates, has also been muted, focusing mainly on the various candidates presenting their 160,000 signatures to register for the ballot. Some local television stations have broadcast programs about constitutional provisions and election laws as a method to educate voters, but the overall atmosphere is subdued. -------------- - OSCE/ODIHR HITS THE GROUND RUNNING -------------- - ¶2. (SBU) The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe/Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) election observation mission, however, is in full swing. A core team of 12 representatives opened the mission October 10, and an additional 13 long-term observers were deployed to six regions October 17: Dushanbe, Kulob, Qurgon-Tube, Khorog, Khujand and Rasht. The two-member long-term observer teams are preparing for 100 short-term observers. ¶3. (C) Onno van der Wind, the Dutch head of the election mission, briefed member states October 20 on the status of preparations. He noted local officials had warmly welcomed long-term observers in each region, at the district and precinct level. Van der Wind reported that during introductory meetings, "90 percent" of their interlocutors in the national and local government, diplomatic missions, non-governmental organizations and political parties recommended the OSCE deploy a full contingent of short-term observers. ¶4. (C) Van der Wind expressed concern that the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) has established its own observer mission. "It's difficult-they are all members of the OSCE," he observed, and as such, should respect the ODIHR mission and mandate of neutrality and non-interference. "I hope they stick to the Copenhagen Document," he joked, referring to the 1990 agreement on fundamental democratic principles signed by all participating states. He commented that the CIS mission press release stating that there had been no violations in Tajikistan thus far was something "the OSCE would never do." Nonetheless, he reported he held a productive meeting with the CIS mission head, during which they promised to share factual information. -------------- NO INTERFERENCE! I MEAN IT THIS TIME!! -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Rahmonov has been very public in instructing local officials not to interfere in the election, most recently when he visited the Qumsangir region, which experienced an earthquake in July. A district election official remarked that this year, unlike in past elections, Rahmonov and his administration had stressed the policy of non-interference in the election process (Ref D). During the Ambassador's continuing introductory meetings, every senior government officials has mentioned the non-interference policy. However, Suhrob Sharipov, Director of the presidential Center for Strategic Studies, told the Ambassador that he was worried about what local officials would do. "It's one thing to change procedures and provide training." (Note: which the Election Commission is doing with help from IFES - International Foundation for Election Systems. End note.) "However, it's much more difficult to change the DUSHANBE 00001935 002 OF 002 mentality of these officials, who from Soviet times were publicly asked to conduct a fair election but privately expected to deliver the vote." -------------- THE SAGA CONTINUES: DPT VS. DPT -------------- ¶6. (C) In the Ambassador's introductory call, Minister of Justice Hamidov criticized the Democratic Party (DPT) for infighting and disagreeing over the status of the Vatan faction (Ref C). He suggested they use the courts to solve their problems. Both DPT factions are publishing limited versions of their party paper Adolat, and accusing the other of being illegal. ¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: With no competition, no real campaign, and no real enthusiasm, Rahmonov loses nothing by stressing that election officials should remain neutral. The real test will be the percentage he wins by in those districts where his "opponents" might have a few voters turn out. The CIS observer contingent will likely be nothing more than a rubber stamp for any results. END COMMENT JACOBSON