THREE WEEKS OUT: OBSERVER MISSION DEPLOYING WITH MORE VIGOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001935

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MERKEL; STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: THREE WEEKS OUT: OBSERVER MISSION DEPLOYING WITH MORE VIGOR
THAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

REF: A) DUSHANBE 1773 B) DUSHANBE 1848 C) DUSHANBE 1863 D) DUSHANBE 1931

CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Ann Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dushanbe, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Three weeks out, Tajikistan shows few visible signs of
an impending presidential election. Aside from a two-story
poster of President Rahmonov (resplendent with five by two foot
eyebrows) on Dushanbe's main boulevard, campaign materials are
conspicuously absent in the capital. PolOffs saw posters for
all five candidates at a district election commission
headquarters (Ref D). Media coverage, of the president or other
candidates, has also been muted, focusing mainly on the various
candidates presenting their 160,000 signatures to register for
the ballot. Some local television stations have broadcast
programs about constitutional provisions and election laws as a
method to educate voters, but the overall atmosphere is subdued.

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OSCE/ODIHR HITS THE GROUND RUNNING

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2. (SBU) The Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe/Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
(OSCE/ODIHR) election observation mission, however, is in full
swing. A core team of 12 representatives opened the mission
October 10, and an additional 13 long-term observers were
deployed to six regions October 17: Dushanbe, Kulob,
Qurgon-Tube, Khorog, Khujand and Rasht. The two-member
long-term observer teams are preparing for 100 short-term
observers.


3. (C) Onno van der Wind, the Dutch head of the election
mission, briefed member states October 20 on the status of
preparations. He noted local officials had warmly welcomed
long-term observers in each region, at the district and precinct
level. Van der Wind reported that during introductory meetings,
"90 percent" of their interlocutors in the national and local
government, diplomatic missions, non-governmental organizations
and political parties recommended the OSCE deploy a full
contingent of short-term observers.


4. (C) Van der Wind expressed concern that the Commonwealth of
Independent States (CIS) has established its own observer
mission. "It's difficult-they are all members of the OSCE," he
observed, and as such, should respect the ODIHR mission and
mandate of neutrality and non-interference. "I hope they stick
to the Copenhagen Document," he joked, referring to the 1990
agreement on fundamental democratic principles signed by all
participating states. He commented that the CIS mission press
release stating that there had been no violations in Tajikistan
thus far was something "the OSCE would never do." Nonetheless,
he reported he held a productive meeting with the CIS mission
head, during which they promised to share factual information.

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NO INTERFERENCE! I MEAN IT THIS TIME!!

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5. (SBU) Rahmonov has been very public in instructing local
officials not to interfere in the election, most recently when
he visited the Qumsangir region, which experienced an earthquake
in July. A district election official remarked that this year,
unlike in past elections, Rahmonov and his administration had
stressed the policy of non-interference in the election process
(Ref D). During the Ambassador's continuing introductory
meetings, every senior government officials has mentioned the
non-interference policy. However, Suhrob Sharipov, Director of
the presidential Center for Strategic Studies, told the
Ambassador that he was worried about what local officials would
do. "It's one thing to change procedures and provide training."
(Note: which the Election Commission is doing with help from
IFES - International Foundation for Election Systems. End
note.) "However, it's much more difficult to change the

DUSHANBE 00001935 002 OF 002


mentality of these officials, who from Soviet times were
publicly asked to conduct a fair election but privately expected
to deliver the vote."

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THE SAGA CONTINUES: DPT VS. DPT

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6. (C) In the Ambassador's introductory call, Minister of
Justice Hamidov criticized the Democratic Party (DPT) for
infighting and disagreeing over the status of the Vatan faction
(Ref C). He suggested they use the courts to solve their
problems. Both DPT factions are publishing limited versions of
their party paper Adolat, and accusing the other of being
illegal.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: With no competition, no real campaign, and
no real enthusiasm, Rahmonov loses nothing by stressing that
election officials should remain neutral. The real test will be
the percentage he wins by in those districts where his
"opponents" might have a few voters turn out. The CIS observer
contingent will likely be nothing more than a rubber stamp for
any results. END COMMENT
JACOBSON