TAJIK PRESIDENT TELLS BOUCHER ELECTION SHOULD MEET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001841 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN NSC FOR MERKEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/7/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EAID EINV ENRG TI SUBJECT: TAJIK PRESIDENT TELLS BOUCHER ELECTION SHOULD MEET INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS CLASSIFIED BY: TJACOBSON, AMBASSADOR, STATE, STATE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a two-hour meeting with Assistant Secretary Richard Boucher October 6, Tajikistan's President SIPDIS Emomali Rahmonov stressed the positive bilateral relationship with the United States. Stating he wanted to deepen contacts at every level, Rahmonov thanked the United States particularly for its assistance in counter-narcotics and counterterrorism. Rahmonov expressed grave concern over Afghanistan and said the United States must continue to be engaged in bringing peace to the region. He reported he had given strong instructions to his administration and local officials that the November 6 presidential election be conducted according to international standards. Uzbekistan continued to be a troublesome neighbor. Boucher thanked Rahmonov for his cooperation on border security issues, and encouraged Tajikistan to conduct an election that would represent a step forward in building a democratic future. Accusing Russia, Iran and Uzbekistan of interference, the situation in Georgia is very much on Rahmonov's mind. END SUMMARY. COUNTERNARCOTICS ¶2. (C) Rahmonov's prepared remarks began with appreciation for U.S assistance in counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism and desire to continue the cooperation, noting that "someday we will be successful." Boucher praised the efforts of the Tajik Border Guards and the Drug Control Agency, and commended them for their increased seizures and interdictions. He pledged continued U.S. support and noted Embassy Dushanbe staff had grown to cover increased assistance. Rahmonov observed the withdrawal of the Russian border troops in June 2005 had not been easy - "They took everything! Every last spoon!" -- but many Tajik agencies now cooperated on seizures, including the Interior Ministry, Customs, the Border Guards and the Drug Control Agency. However, Rahmonov said the key to regional counter-narcotics efforts was eradicating the crops in Afghanistan. ENERGY ¶3. (C) Rahmonov remarked U.S investment could play an important role in "modernizing" Tajikistan's economic structures, particular in the energy sector. He suggested the United States encourage transmission lines to connect Central Asia to South Asia and noted his own efforts at creating a regional energy consortium. Clearly demonstrating increasing concern over perceived lagging by AES on project implementation, Rahmonov said "We need to speed things up and move from talk to concrete action." The Tajik Ministry of Energy will host a "Central Asia and South Asia Electricity Trade" conference in Dushanbe October 26-28 which will provide further opportunity to realize regional plans. Boucher noted he had appointed Robert Deutsch to focus specifically on regional integration issues and he would participate in the the Dushanbe conference. ¶4. (SBU) Pushing his pet hydropower project, Rhamonov expressed hope the United States would build a 3600 megawatt hydropower station at Dasti-jhum on the Pyanj river between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. "It would accelerate growth and development throughout the region," he argued. He admitted that attracting a private company will be essential. "I understand that your president cannot just give an order." Nonetheless, he hoped the United States would support Tajikistan's position. AFGHANISTAN ¶5. (C) Rahmonov admitted Afghanistan's deteriorating situation worried Tajikistan. Referring to increased violence in southern Afganistan, he implored the international community to demonstrate "unity and strength" in combating terrorism. "Who is behind the Taliban?" he asked. "You must examine this closer." Forces trying to destabilize Afghanistan also wanted to prevent Central Asia from reaching its potential, he opined much later in the meeting. "The Taliban was not born in Afghanistan; Pakistan is its native land." He criticized Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence for supporting the Taliban. "But it DUSHANBE 00001841 002 OF 003 is not just armed by Pakistan and the Arabs," he cautioned cryptically. ¶6. (C) Rahmonov hinted he had information about General Dostum assembling armed forces in Sherbergan to work against the peace process. "He is getting support from a neighbor-that assistance wasn't there six months ago," he implied. "Anyone can work with the Taliban." He suggested Iran should be closely watched, and noted with Russia providing high tech weapons to Uzbekistan, Karimov could be selling his old equipment to the south. When Boucher pressed him for a point of contact in the security services, Rahmonov deflected the question, saying he did not have specific information. "Some third countries do not want stability in Afghanistan, they want a buffer," he said. "I told (Afghanistan President Hamid) Karzai that Dostum would be a pain in his neck. Dostum has betrayed others." ¶7. (SBU) Rahmonov maintained economic development was the key to Afghanistan's stability and noted the Dasti-jhum project could also irrigate 2 million hectares of land, and help provide alternatives to poppies. ¶8. (C) Boucher responded that it had been a difficult year, but Afghanistan had made progress in five years, with an elected government and parliament. The increased violence in southern Afghanistan was in part a failure of the government to engage the region, in part due to operations from Pakistan and also due to Taliban and drug traffickers working together. The United States was committed to Afghanistan, and looking for ways to expand Afghan security services, build the economy and strengthen counter-narcotics efforts. ¶9. (C) Rahmonov asked whether the United States was searching for a replacement for Karzai since "some" are spreading such rumors. Boucher unequivocally responded Washington supported the democratically elected Afghan president, calling him the best person for the job and Afghanistan at the moment. ¶10. (C) Rahmonov mentioned that General Khudoberdiev, a Tajik opposition commander now operating in Uzbekistan with support from President Karimov, was working with General Dostum's brother to traffic drugs in the region. (NOTE: Embassy has heard increasing complaints from Tajik officials regarding Khudoberdiev as a "worse threat than al-Qaeda," septels.) THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ¶11. (SBU) Exactly one month away from the presidential election, Rahmonov emphasized the election was to be conducted according to international standards. He repeated several times that he had instructed his administration to follow all Tajik election laws, and allow media opportunities for opposition candidates. "There should be no interference in the process," he stressed, noting he had three meetings with election officials to hammer home than point. He didn't need special treatment, he laughed, because "The people know the name Rahmonov!" He hoped the election would provide a fundamental basis for democracy. ¶12. (SBU) Boucher told Rahmonov the election was an opportunity to move Tajikistan forward. He observed that the Central Committee for Election and Referenda's efforts on voter education, election materials and international observers were small steps forward, but many important measures remained, such as allowing media outlets and radio stations to be licensed. Boucher also noted there should be consequences for those officials and individuals who violated election laws. This was an opportunity for Tajikistan and Rahmonov to earn international respect. UZBEKISTAN ¶13. (C) Noting that Tajikistan wanted cooperation with all its neighbors, Rahmonov underscored how difficult Uzbekistan was. "We want trade, development and border cooperation, instead we get barriers and minefields." Uzbekistan recently blocked Kyrgyzstan from selling Tajikistan electricity by refusing to let it go through the Uzbek power lines, and proposing that DUSHANBE 00001841 003 OF 003 Tajikistan purchase electricity from Uzbekistan at three times the price. ¶14. (C) Boucher remarked that the United States shared Tajikistan's vision for regional cooperation. Boucher and Rahmonov agreed that for the time being, projects directed at regional integration would have to be designed to avoid Uzbek control. RUSSIA ¶15. (C) Rahmonov alluded to the pressure Tajikistan felt from the Russian mass media and Russian government and reported he had told Russian Prime Minister Fradtkov during the September Shanghai Cooperation Organization Ministerial in Dushanbe that Tajikistan did not need a big brother. Rahmonov said, "Fradtkov needs to recalculate. We are not an impoverished country. We are paying our debts, not extending our hands." ¶16. (C) With a sigh, Rahmonov observed the different political pressure they felt. He bluntly stated that Russia did not want stability in Afghanistan; a weak Afghanistan would serve both to portray the U.S. efforts as a failure, and also prevent Central Asian countries from achieving economic independence. He remarked that many former Soviet republics were watching relations between Russia and Georgia unravel with great concern. He noted that Tajikistan had learned its lessons from Moldova and Belarus, countries without direct access to seaports which had to rely on good relations with neighbors to export their products. "We need an exit to the south," he said, which was why stability in Afghanistan was crucial to Tajikistan's own future. ¶17. (C) China was a more reliable partner than Russia, as was the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said Rahmonov. Russia made grand promises but failed to deliver on significant long-term economic projects. ECONOMIC SUPPORT AND DEBT RELIEF ¶18. (SBU) Rahmonov mentioned in passing the hope that the U.S. would follow the initiative of "eight other countries" in providing debt relief for highly impoverished countries. He also requested support as Tajikistan moves towards entering the World Trade Organization. COMMENT ¶19. (C) Speaking freely and thoughtfully, Rahmonov covered no new ground, but emphasized issues important to both countries. His grave concern about the problems in Afghanistan indicated Rahmonov is acutely aware that Tajikistan's security and stability may lie with its southern neighbor. Rahmonov's multiple veiled references to third parties hoping to destabilize Afghanistan "to create a buffer" indicate a suspicion that Russia, but also Uzbekistan and Iran, may be trying to influence the geo-political balance in the region in ways that are not in Tajikistan's interests. His comments on Russia underscore growing displeasure with Moscow's heavy hand in domestic and regional affairs. However, the situation in Georgia has sent a powerful message to other former Soviet republics-a message Rahmonov seems to have gotten. ¶20. (C) Rahmonov understands what international observers want to hear about the presidential election, and he may be sincere in hoping that his administration does not interfere with the electoral process. Certainly, with no true opposite candidates running, Rahmonov can afford to be magnanimous. However, it remains to be seen whether district and local level officials, raised in a Soviet-style mindset where anything less than 99 percent is not victory, will understand and implement Rahmonov's instructions. ¶21. (U) State Advisor for Economic Affairs Matlabkhan Davlatov and Energy Minister Abdullo Yerov flanked Rahmonov for the first half of the meeting, but left after Rahmonov gestured for them to exit. Ambassador Jacobson and PolOff accompanied Assistant Secretary Boucher. SIPDIS JACOBSON