FOREIGN MINISTER LOOKS SOUTH FOR OPPORTUNITY AND NERVOUSLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001840

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/7/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EAID EINV ENRG TI
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER LOOKS SOUTH FOR OPPORTUNITY AND NERVOUSLY
AT GEORGIA

CLASSIFIED BY: TJACOBSON, AMBASSADOR, STATE, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In a 45-minute meeting with Assistant
Secretary Richard Boucher October 6, Foreign Minister Talbak

SIPDIS
Nazarov remarked that the United States and Tajikistan have a
positive bilateral relationship because they have built an
atmosphere of trust. He thanked Boucher for the U.S. security
and economic assistance but urged increased U.S. engagement in
Afghanistan, where the deteriorating situation poses a direct
threat to Tajikistan. The short and long-term electricity
supply remains a top concern. END SUMMARY.

AFGHANISTAN


2. (C) Nazarov expressed a fear that the "exacerbated"
situation in southern Afghanistan could move north, posing a
direct threat to Tajikistan's border and stability. "The
illicit drug flow is more than enough already," he quipped.
Tajikistan did not want to seriously criticize the Afghan
government, but encouraged the United States to step up its
engagement. Nazarov noted that recent announcement that NATO
will increase troop numbers was a good sign. Afghanistan is a
big country that needs more forces, he advised. Nazarov
applauded efforts to train Afghan police to help fight the
Taliban, but noted the Afghan border guards also needed
assistance.


3. (C) Boucher agreed that expanding government operations and
increasing the Afghan police and armed forces would lead to
greater stability, but Afghanistan also needed significant
infrastructure to achieve real peace. The fundamental issue, he
said, was to strengthen government in Afghanistan's border areas.


4. (SBU) Nazarov noted that bilateral relations between
Dushanbe and Kabul were good, and getting stronger, as the two
countries signed more agreements and increase operational
cooperation, particularly on drugs. The U.S.- funded bridge at
Nizhniy Pyanj, slated to open Summer 2007, will provide further
opportunities for cooperation, and trade.

ENERGY


5. (SBU) Because Tajikistan has no gas or oil, Nazarov noted
that securing electricity for the winter was a top priority. He
lamented the inadequate transmission network that cut off
northern Tajikistan from the south. Tajikistan had recently
reached an agreement with Kyrgyzstan to purchase electricity,
but because transmission lines go through Uzbekistan, Tashkent
scuttled the deal, and then suggested the Tajiks purchase Uzbek
electricity, and three times the cost. The Chinese project to
build South-North high voltage transmission lines through the
Varzob Gorge will eliminate this problem by connecting directly
to Kyrgyzstan's network, but those lines will not be ready for
at two years.


6. (C) Nazarov hinted that Uzbekistan had also played a role
in the changing relations between the Tajik government and
RusAl's Oleg Deripaska over the Rogun hydropower station. "I
don't want to blame the Uzbeks, but when Deripaska came back
from Tashkent, he came a different person" and no longer
accepted the long-standing design for a 335 meter earth-and-rock
dam. The recently published Lahmayer technical study on Rogun
had not entirely settled the issue of height and of a cement
versus earth dam. The World Bank will be weighing in with an
independent assessment.


7. (SBU) Nazarov said the upcoming Central Asia and South Asia
Electricity Trade conference in Dushanbe October 26-28, would
provide another opportunity for regional countries to work out
trade agreements for electricity, particularly for Afghanistan.
He noted that Tajikistan had a good record of exporting to those
places in Afghanistan that had transmission lines. "Even in the
winter, when we don't have enough electricity, we still export
to Afghanistan."

INVESTMENT CLIMATE AND CORRUPTION

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8. (C) Boucher observed that the investment climate and
widespread corruption meant Tajikistan remained a risk for
investors. He noted that the unresolved case of Gerald Metals
with the state aluminum plant "TadAZ" stood out as an example of
what could happen in Tajikistan, and urged the Tajik government
to help resolve the case soon. Nazarov called the former TadAZ
director a criminal, and remarked that the director was being
also prosecuted in London. Nazarov reported that Tajikistan
signed the anti-corruption convention in New York during the UN
general Assembly meetings in September. New domestic
legislation also addresses corruption.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


9. (C) In response to Boucher's question about the November 6
presidential election, Nazarov laughed and said, "I only know
what I read." He said he was surprised the Islamic Renaissance
Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) has declined to put up a candidate,
but reported that a friend of his in the party has said they did
not want to "waste their time." The Islamists would save their
efforts and strength for the future. Nazarov noted that some
parties worked quietly to build their base, while others
quarreled among themselves.


10. (SBU) Nazarov reported that President Rahmonov had given
firm instructions that all candidates should have access to
state media services, and ministers and local officials were not
to interfere in the election process. Observers from any
country would be allowed on November 6.


11. (SBU) Boucher asked whether there were any plans to
investigate or punish cases where fraud did occur. "I honestly
don't know," said the foreign minister. "You can ask the
president." Boucher states that the election was a chance to
get the procedures and processes right.


12. (SBU) Boucher also asked about registration and licensing
of media outlets and radio stations, including U.S.-funded
community radio stations through the non-governmental
organization Internews. Nazarov switched to the subject of BBC,
and reported he had personally spoken with the head of the state
agency on radio, and it seemed likely the BBC would be licensed
soon.

GEORGIA AND RUSSIA


13. (C) Mentioning with concern the situation between Russia
and Georgia, Nazarov observed, "Whenever a big country and a
small country come into conflict, the small country suffers
first." Boucher said his message during upcoming consultations
in Moscow was that U.S. and Russian goals and interests in the
region are the same. Competition only harmed countries in the
region, including Afghanistan and Tajikistan.


14. (SBU) COMMENT: Nazarov was relaxed and open, but
non-committal on the elections, preferring to pass that to the
President himself. END COMMENT.
JACOBSON