SEVEN WEEKS OUT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN, TAJIK ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001744 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM TI SUBJECT: SEVEN WEEKS OUT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN, TAJIK ELECTION CANDIDATES EMERGE DUSHANBE 00001744 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (U) Five political parties officially announced their candidates for president during congresses held September 16-17. The candidates thus far are all chairmen of their parties, have little nationwide popular support and are weak politicians. With the exception of Narziev's Socialist Party of Tajikistan, all parties nominating candidates to date are widely known as government pocket parties, created to give the impression of pluralism. Although the parties have begun the nomination process, it remains to be seen who will run in the election. Candidates must first collect 160,000 signatures with government certification in order to register for the Central Committee on Election and Referenda to certify their candidacy ¶2. (U) The following is a list of parties that have announced a candidate: Agrarian Party of Tajikistan (APT) - Amir Qaraqulov, Chairman Socialist Party of Tajikistan (SPT) (registered)- Abduhalim Gafforov, Chairman Socialist Party of Tajikistan (SPT) (unregistered)- Mirhusen Narziev, Chairman Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) (Vatan faction)- Tavarali Ziyoev, Deputy Chairman Party of Economic Reform of Tajikistan (PERT) - Olimjon Boboyev, Chairman ¶3. (U) The Democratic Party of Tajikistan, headed by imprisoned the Iskandarov, the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, the Community Party of Tajikistan and President Rahmonov's People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) plan to hold congresses from September 23-25. ¶4. (U) As expected the Democratic Party of Tajikistan has split into two and the Vatan faction will most likely support Rahmonov's candidacy. Eight policemen provided security during Vatan's congress and checked guests' ID as they entered, an unusual service to political parties from the government. This bolsters the general perception that Vatan is a PDPT affiliated government pocket party. Vatan already has a tarnished reputation for falsifying signatures of supporters when submitting documents for registration. Because of the public outcry over this fraudulent act, the Ministry of Justice does not officially recognize Vatan as the Democratic Party of Tajikistan and has formally requested the Central Committee on Election and Referenda not to sanctify their participation in the election process. As a sign of protest over unfair democratic processes, Iskandarov's DPT and SDPT may boycott the election. ¶5. (SBU) Rumors have surfaced in Dushanbe that the IRPT struck a deal with Rahmonov and would support his re-election. However, Kabiri reaffirmed to PolOff as other IRPT members have repeatedly stated, the IRPT would rather declare its neutrality and not support any candidate than throw their weight behind Rahmonov. The IRPT's spiritual leader, Himmazoda has said that according to his interpretation of the Koran, if the IRPT cannot win the election, they should not even try to advance a candidate. Rahmonov himself has yet to officially declare his candidacy for president and publicly said he has not decided if he would run or not. However, it is expected that not only will he run, but win. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: At this point, no party is strong enough to field a candidate that would truly compete with Rahmonov. However, the president's PDPT still views the IRPT as its primary competition. If the IRPT put forth a popular candidate DUSHANBE 00001744 002 OF 002 such as Kabiri, he would undoubtedly deplete Rahmonov's percentage by at least a few points, thereby giving the impression the President is less popular than he was 7 years ago. The PDPT may have tried to coerce the IRPT into supporting Rahmonov, but coming right on the heels of Nuri's death, agreeing to support Rahmonov would create internal rifts and be political suicide. END COMMENT. JACOBSON