TAJIKISTAN: SDPT CHAIRMAN RETURNS FROM MEDICAL TREATMENT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001623

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/30/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TI RS
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: SDPT CHAIRMAN RETURNS FROM MEDICAL TREATMENT IN
MOSCOW AND MEETINGS WITH RUSSIAN OFFICIALS

CLASSIFIED BY: THUSHEK, CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, STATE, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: The Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan's
(SDPT) Chairman, Rahmatullo Zoyirov met with PolOff August 28
after returning from treatment in Moscow and Switzerland
following his stroke. Zoyirov appeared healthy and
reinvigorated, and discussed the upcoming presidential election
as well as conversations in Moscow with Tajik labor migrants and
Russian authorities on their role in the election. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Rahmatullo Zoyirov, Chairman of the SDPT, spent three
weeks in Switzerland and Moscow seeking treatment after
temporarily losing his speech and some movement in his body from
a micro-stroke in July. Zoyirov told Embassy sources that while
he was in Moscow, doctors tested his blood and found a high
level of toxins, indicating that he was poisoned. However,
doctors refuse to issue statements supporting the evidence.
Zoyirov strongly suspects the government poisoned him in order
to eliminate political opposition. He now says that he is
healthy and has regained full speaking skills and control of
motor movements. Doctors say he may have suffered some brain
injuries as a result of the stroke and he still cannot see
clearly. He said he was thankful for the opportunity to check
his health, the first time in twenty years. During Zoyirov's
meeting with PolOff he appeared in fine health and spoke with
his usual assuredness and energy.

TAJIK POLITICS IN RUSSIA


3. (C) While in Moscow, Zoyirov met with Russian government
officials. Although he declined to name them, he did say they
are very close to Putin. According to Zoyirov, he only
initiated one meeting and was invited by officials to other
meetings. He was not entirely forthcoming with the nature or
content of his discussions, but observed Russia may be "shopping
around" for political leaders in Tajikistan to support besides
Rahmonov. Officials made it clear to Zoyirov that he was not
"their type of candidate." (COMMENT: This leads one to believe
that Zoyirov may have gone to Moscow to ask for political
support. END COMMENT.) He mentioned that Russia was courting
several people in the government who are "two-faced" and eager
to take over power from Rahmonov, including Prime Minister Oqil
Oqilov. Zoyirov expressed concern about Tajikistan's stability
after the election and fears an assassination may occur or some
other tumultuous event such as a steep economic decline.


4. (C) Zoyirov also met with Tajik immigrants in Moscow to
rally their support for him. However, he was unable to get any
assurances of support from the migrants he met. Tajik labor
migrants number anywhere from 600,000 to one million. Although
their numbers are large, few plan to vote in the presidential
election. The Tajik embassy in Moscow will set up polling
stations in key cities throughout Russia. However, since most
migrants are unregistered, many will not go to vote out of fear
of being detained by Russian authorities. During past
elections, Tajik embassy personnel have been ordered to go out
to the street and collect votes from migrants in order to meet a
certain quota set by Dushanbe.

BACK TO THE DUSHANBE GRIND


5. (C) Zoyirov planned to meet with Islamic Renaissance Party
of Tajikistan (IRPT) Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri to discuss the
IRPT's plan for the election. He suggested that if Kabiri wins
his party's nomination to run against Rahmonov, the party may
split because some factions may strongly support other

DUSHANBE 00001623 002 OF 002


candidates and refuse to support Kabiri. He said that in order
for the IRPT to remain united, it may have to refrain from
nominating any candidate.


6. (C) Regarding his own party's participation in the
election, Zoyirov stated that he will run in the election if
Rahmonov does not run, or the SDPT will boycott the election if
Rahmonov runs. (COMMENT: Of course Rahmonov will run! We will
see what Zoyirov decides. END COMMENT.) The SDPT has always
maintained that Rahmonov's presidency is constitutionally
illegal and will make it their campaign platform to educate
Tajik citizens about this perceived injustice. They plan to
closely monitor the election and point out violations during the
process. Zoyirov said he was ready to be back in Dushanbe and
to start working, but strongly doubted Tajikistan would change
for the better after the election.


7. (C) COMMENT: As one of the most preeminent lawyers in
Tajikistan, Zoyirov has always enjoyed great credibility. His
meetings with Russian authorities likely did occur, however, it
is uncertain at what level Zoyirov would have access. Russian
authorities may be misleading Zoyirov in an attempt to rile his
opposition fervor. Zoyirov may have initiated a meeting with
Kabiri in an attempt to gain IRPT support for his own agenda.
END COMMENT.
HUSHEK