TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001600 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN; OES E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER LEVEL REF: Dushanbe 1465 ¶1. Two recent earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes in southern Tajikistan offered a bracing reminder that this mountainous country remains seismically very active (Reftel). In 1911, a strong earthquake rocked Tajikistan's Pamir mountains, triggering a massive landslide that created the Usoi Dam along the Murghob River and Lake Sarez. The Usoi Dam is the largest naturally-formed dam in the world, holding in Lake Sarez's 17 cubic kilometers of water. If the dam were to break, or an earthquake or landslide were to spill water over the dam, the result could be catastrophic flooding not only in Tajikistan, but also into Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan downstream. PolOff and Regional Environment Officer met with the Ministry of Emergency Situation's Special Agency on Lake Sarez's Director Amin Husainov August 17 to review the status of Lake Sarez. ¶2. Director Husainov stated the situation remains very dangerous and that the Tajik government treats the problem very seriously. The Agency briefs the government daily on the lake's water levels and any new or extraordinary activity. The Government pays close attention, because an earthquake of the magnitude that created the lake occurs in the area every 80 to 120 years. Given that the earthquake that created the lake occurred 95 years ago, it is believed a similar earthquake could happen at any time. In addition, most lakes created by such events are temporary and eventually disappear. The lake's water level has risen substantially. For the past ten years, the water level rose an average of ten centimeters annually, but a greater volume of snow melt from the Pamirs caused the Lake to rise a whopping 2.62 meters last year. ¶3. Experts have come to conflicting conclusions about the Usoi Dam's stability. Some predict it is vulnerable to large earthquakes and will eventually break; others claim the dam is quite sturdy and Lake Sarez will remain a permanent geographical fixture in Tajikistan's landscape. Most experts agree that although the dam might not instantly burst, in the event of a landslide or earthquake, large scale flooding would occur. The Tajik government created the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project (LSRMP) with a $4.3 million budget jointly financed by the Tajik government and the donor community (including USAID) to assess the risks, develop early warning systems, and prepare local communities for a possible disaster. The World Bank and Swiss government are the largest contributors to LSRMP. An early warning system was finished in 2004. The system should notify officials in Dushanbe and residents in the affected area within one minute of any irregular activity at the Usoi Dam or a change in Lake Sarez's water level. Select residents in each village of the potentially flooded areas received emergency training and are equipped with communications radios. ¶4. The Uzbek government has expressed interest in developing an early warning system for its territory, but has not made any significant efforts to cooperate with Tajik authorities. Studies predict that if the Usoi Dam were to break completely, flood waters could spread as far as a 20-km width along the Uzbek plains and could be as high as twelve meters when it reached Uzbekistan. The water would flood from the Pamirs down through the Bartang, Pyanj, and Amu Darya Rivers all the way to the Aral Sea. Over two million people in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, as well as the settlements and cities along the rivers, could be affected by flooding. Such possible flooding poses not only an immediate danger to people's lives, but has longer term economic implications for agriculture and economic development. ¶5. COMMENT: Lake Sarez is a natural wonder that could become a natural disaster with one good quake. The Tajik authorities monitor the situation as best they can, but aside from early warning measures, already in place, and hopefully functional, there is little any government could do to prevent this disaster. Because the most damage would be in Uzbekistan, Tashkent and Dushanbe would be well advised to cooperate on early warning systems. END COMMENT. HUSHEK