TAJIKISTAN: DEMONSTRATIONS IN AUTONOMOUS REGION A SIGN OF UNREST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001597

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SNARC AF TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: DEMONSTRATIONS IN AUTONOMOUS REGION A SIGN OF
UNREST

CLASSIFIED BY: THUSHEK, CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, STATE, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Two demonstrations in front of the
Gorno-Badakshan Autonomous Oblast governor's office August 18-19
illustrate increasing unrest in the economically downtrodden
remote area also known as the Pamirs. The several hundred
strong crowd protested against the central government and the
arrest of a retired colonel -- a popular drug lord who provided
generous assistance to the local community. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) During an August 18 visit to Khorog, capital of
Gorno-Badakshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO),PolOff and Regional
Environment officer paid a courtesy call to GBAO Governor,
Almamad Niezmamadov. At the beginning of the meeting,
Niezmamadov's direct government line began ringing off the hook.
He excused himself and left the room for twenty minutes. While
EmbOffs curiously waited, their driver burst into the room and
urged them to leave immediately, explaining there was a
"conflict" at the front of the building. One minute later, the
governor returned and apologized for his absence by saying "some
people wanted to talk to him." Alarmed by the driver's warning,
EmbOffs politely ended the meeting. As it turns out, the "some
people" who "wanted to talk" to the governor amounted to an
angry crowd loudly demanding to see him. As officials escorted
EmbOffs past the front entrance and out the building's back
door, EmbOffs could hear and see the large crowd. A small
number of government officials stood by the entrance nervously.


3. (C) EmbOffs were escorted out the back door and around to
the front of the building where their vehicle was parked behind
the large crowd. Government officials and the local driver
urged EmbOffs to leave. One American traveling with EmbOffs
remained in the vehicle during the meetings and witnessed the
entire demonstration.

EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS


4. (SBU) According to different witnesses, around 3:45 pm, a
group of young men emerged from the local police station
directly across the street from the governor's office. Two
appeared to be heavily intoxicated and the group looked like
they were ready to break into a fight. The young men then
departed the scene. Several minutes later they came back and
may have been brandishing small firearms and brought additional
people to the scene. A crowd of 500-600 people, mainly young
men, quickly gathered in front of the governor's office. They
began yelling and chanting, demanding to speak to the governor.
Government officials later reported that some in the crowd had
firearms and were firing them in the air. Several women also
joined the crowd, and some started wailing. Fearing violence,
the women cried for the men to stop the demonstrations and
return home.


5. (C) At approximately 5:10 pm, two white jeeps pulled up
next to EmbOffs' vehicles and several men jumped out carrying a
weapon which appeared to be a machine gun. The men pointed the
weapon at the crowd in front of the building. They appeared to
be plainclothes government officials and seemed to know everyone
in the crowd. They urged the crowd to remain calm and dissolve;
no shots were fired and no one was hurt. (NOTE: This
contributed to the diminished numbers EmbOffs later witnessed.
END NOTE.)


6. (SBU) Despite being across the street from the police
station, no uniformed police were visible. At around 6:30pm
EmbOffs revisited the site and the crowd has completely
dissipated. The citizens of Khorog resumed their daily business
and many were out on the streets. Embassy sources say a smaller
group of about 50-60 people returned to the governor's office
August 18 to continue protesting.

WHAT REALLY CAUSED THE PROTEST?


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7. (C) Local sources and government officials told PolOff that
earlier in the week, authorities attempted to arrest a popular
retired colonel living in Upper Khorog, a neighborhood
economically worse off than Lower Khorog, considered the town's
center. A shootout ensued and an innocent bystander was hurt.
Ministry of Interior and Drug Control Agency officials told
Post's Senior Law Enforcement Advisor the colonel is a
drug-lord. Authorities moved in to arrest him, after already
arresting several of his associates and seizing narcotics. The
men involved in the argument in front of the police station
supported the colonel and rallied the crowd in front of the
governor's office.


8. (C) In a meeting with PolOff August 18, Deputy Governor
Bekmurodi told PolOff the governor refused to speak with the
crowd because of security reasons and instead negotiated with a
small group of representatives from the group of demonstrators.
The Governor promised the representatives he would rescind the
arrest warrant. Conflicting reports from government officials
make it unclear whether the colonel has been detained.
(COMMENT: The governor does not have the authority to rescind
the arrest warrant. His promise to do so was likely a temporary
ploy to assuage the protestors. If he was unable to deliver on
his promise, protestors may rally on his doorstep again. The
protestors may also read his concession as a sign of weakness.
END COMMENT.)


9. (C) PolChief visit Khorog August 19 with Deputy Assistant
Secretary Feigenbaum and heard even more varied accounts of the

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August 17 event. Over lunch, the Mayor of Khorog told PolChief
rival football teams were angry about the outcome of a football
match, and chose to rumble. "Outside the governor's office?" she
asked incredulously. "Wasn't the demonstration aimed against
the government?" He shook his head. An Embassy bodyguard asked
around town about the protest. One person admitted it was
against the government, but local staff at the electricity plant
made a point of denying entirely there had been any
demonstration.


10. (C) An AmCit expat advisor working in Khorog on energy
issues told PolChief the demonstration was about rival
drug-lords: the colonel and the governor. The governor tried to
have the colonel arrested after one of them violated an
agreement on who could move their drugs first. The AmCit noted
that Khorog city was divided between the two men, and there were
parts of the city the electrical utility collectors couldn't go
for fear of being shot. He noted the colonel had a reputation
for doing good works in the neighborhood, "like Hezbollah," and
his loyal supporters would not let the governor arrest him.


11. (C) Typical of state controlled media, no news agencies
reported on the demonstrations. Demonstrations in Tajikistan are
illegal, and a group hoping to demonstrate must receive
permission from the government. This is the first demonstration
in Khorog in recent memory, and clearly no one bothered to ask
for permission. Demonstrations are also widely feared in
Tajikistan by the government and the public who remember the
initial days of the civil war triggered by rival demonstrations
in Dushanbe's main squares.

US VS. THEM


12. (C) During the demonstration, one passerby told Embassy
source that this "was the worst case of authority abuse in
years." During PolOff's meeting with Deputy to the Governor
Bekmurodi August 18, he confirmed that the people were upset
over the arrest of the colonel, but underlying tension between
the local people and central government authorities was nothing
new. Bekmurodi spoke at length on the history of the Pamirs and
the people's distinct identity. Although acknowledging that
most people also consider themselves Tajik, he frequently spoke
in terms of "us" and "them".


13. (C) Embassy sources say one reason behind the protest is
the central government's recent appointment of several Kulobis
from the President's home region to high level positions in

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GBAO. President Rahmonov appointed the governor and his deputy;
both are Pamiri. Niezmamadov has been governor for 13 years and
generally, the people have recognized that he has done a lot of
good for the region, but Bekmurodi insinuated that the governor
may retire at the end of 2006. He also commented that in the
past few years there have been many problems in GBAO's more
remote districts, but did not elaborate.


14. (C) Bekmurodi suggested the majority of the population in
GBAO would ideally like to be independent from Tajikistan, but
understand they depend on the rest of the country for economic
survival. Many people are frustrated with the high unemployment
and the lack of trade and economic growth the rest of Tajikistan
is seeing. Five years ago, the government subsidized 92 percent
of GBAO's budget. Today, the rate has decreased to 84 percent
and the government's plan is to have the region's economy
self-sustainable by 2015. Bekmurodi admitted it would not be in
the central government's interest to have a self-sustaining
economy in GBAO and would likely extend subsidizing the region
beyond 2015 in order to retain control.


15. (C) COMMENT: The colonel's arrest was the catalyst that
sparked the protest, but the demonstrations reflect the people's
frustration with government authorities. Although the
government managed to quell the demonstrations, its next steps
are unclear. If the government insists on arresting the
drug-trafficking colonel, it will surely face resistance from
the people he has helped. However, if he eludes detention, it
sends the message that rule of law is not upheld and drug lords
are on equal par with the government, wielding considerable
power. However, if people widely believe that the governor
himself is a drug baron, the colonel's arrest will seem less
like a triumph over narco-trafficking, and more like a familiar
abuse of power. END COMMENT.
HUSHEK