TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI LEADS ISLAMIC PARTY AFTER NURI'S DEATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001587 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN NSC FOR MERKEL E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/18/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL KDEM TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI LEADS ISLAMIC PARTY AFTER NURI'S DEATH CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Hushek, Charge d'Affaires, U.S. Embassy, Dushanbe, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan elected Muhiddin Kabiri as its acting-chairman after Nuri's death. The press and some political analysts speculate the party will split without Nuri's leadership and it will not elect Kabiri as the chairman because, as a moderate, he is a polarizing figure. However, signs point to the party uniting after the recent death of their former chairman and supporting Kabiri to keep the party alive. The IRPT's biggest challenge will be to remain united and not fall victim to President Rahmonov's plan to weaken their party in order to consolidate his political power. END SUMMARY IRPT UNITES IN SUPPOT OF KABIRI ¶2. (C) The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan's (IRPT) Political Council unanimously elected moderate Muhiddin Kabiri as the party's Acting-Chairman shortly after the August 9 death of Said Abdullo Nuri, the IRPT Chairman who led the reconciliation process which ended the 1992-1997 Tajik Civil War. Kabiri had been the party's de facto chairman since Nuri fell ill with cancer almost two years ago. On September 2 the party will hold a congress and likely confirm Kabiri as its next chairman. ¶3. (C) Since he was diagnosed with cancer, Nuri has consistently and explicitly stated that Kabiri should be the next IRPT leader. Prior to Nuri's death, IRPT leaders from across the party's political spectrum all swore to Nuri that they would elect Kabiri as the next leader and give him their full support. The press and rumors have other IRPT members defeating Kabiri for the chairmanship. One such name is Muhammadsharif Himmatzoda. Prior to the Political Council's vote, the party approached Himmatzoda to be chairman, but he declined. Himmatzoda is disabled and told the party that he is unable to lead the party, explaining that in his final years, Nuri was too weak and yielded to the government and Rahmonov's whims. Himmatzoda said the party needs a physically and psychologically strong leader and threw his support towards Kabiri. (COMMENT: Although the party first approached Himmatzoda, this is not a sign that he is preferable or a competitor to Kabiri. Kabiri knew about the proposal to Himmatzoda and respects his role as a veteran IRPT leader. END COMMENT.) ¶4. (C) Like many political parties, the IRPT has its share of internal squabbles and rifts, but it appears as though all factions are uniting after Nuri's death, at least temporarily. Party members fall into two loose categories: moderates and conservatives. These two categories can be broken down more specifically into conservatives, pro-Iranian, and pro-Western members. Many speculate these different factions will split the party without Nuri's leadership. Realistically, unless external forces (such as Iran or Rahmonov) pressure these factions, none of these factions are likely to break off in the immediate term following Nuri's death and prior to the presidential election in November. ¶5. (C) The pro-western faction, also known as the "liberals," represents the IRPT moderates and Kabiri is their poster-child. This faction is pro-democracy. The pro-Iranian faction (also conservative Muslims) consists of a small number of members and allegedly receives some funding from Iran. This group will never come to lead the IRPT because most Tajiks are Sunnis and would not tolerate pro-Iranian Shia leadership. The third DUSHANBE 00001587 002 OF 003 group, the conservatives, comprises traditionalists who would like to see its members adhere to Islamic values and teachings of the Koran. This group has requested that Kabiri grow a beard and pray more often and would be assuaged if Kabiri demonstrated greater Islamic piety. ¶6. (C) The general sentiment among the party is that Kabiri, an astute politician, has a charismatic personality and is popular among the people. The party recognizes his successful leadership during Nuri's illness. Kabiri has also managed to minimize the conservatives' influence in the party. Many IRPT members feel that the party was labeled as the "bad guys" in the civil war conflict and realize the people of Tajikistan do not want another civil war. The party understands that sending a conservative leader to power would automatically make non-members remember the conflict and cause the IRPT to lose support. RAHMONOV OFFENDS IRPT, SIGNALS DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP ¶7. (C) Embassy sources also tell PolOff the Political Council decided an IRPT member will challenge Rahmonov in the November presidential election. The IRPT was offended by Rahmonov's previous snubs towards Nuri and the party. While Nuri was alive, Rahmonov visited him on his sick bed to curry favor with the IRPT. However, after Nuri's death, several gestures indicate Rahmonov and the government may take a new approach towards the party. Although widely anticipated that he would pay his respects to the party and Nuri's family upon his August 10 return from a state visit to India, Rahmonov never sent official condolences. The government, allegedly at Rahmonov's instruction, would not let the family bury Nuri next to his mentor, Hindustani, or at his home, instead forcing them to bury him in a public cemetery. The government also restricted news about Nuri's death. The print media published several stories on his death and funeral, but most printed press does not reach beyond the two main cities of Dushanbe and Khujand. Government-controlled national television and radio did not run reports, pictures or biographies about Nuri, despite the IRPT's request. COMMENT ¶8. (C) Rahmonov may have cooperated with the IRPT when Nuri was alive, because he wanted to be seen as a benevolent peacemaker and fully engaging the "opposition," as well as to gain credit for allowing Central Asia's only legal Islamic party. Nuri was also a very popular leader. Had Rahmonov sent Nuri, a signatory to the National Peace Accord, to jail or toppled him, it would have played badly in Tajikistan and internationally. However, after Nuri's death, and because Rahmonov has successfully consolidated political power, he has little incentive to play nicely with the Islamic Party anymore. Rahmonov likely views the IRPT as the only political party that could possibly challenge his rule. He may attempt to split the party or discredit Kabiri. The IRPT recognizes this and a continued stable relationship with the government is a heavy concern. ¶9. (C) Preliminary information shows that the government may already be attempting to dismantle the IRPT. Embassy sources told PolOff the chairman of IRPT's regional Kulob chapter has resigned. The reason for his resignation is unclear, but Kulob is Rahmonov's home region and the center of much of the political power in the national government. ¶10. (C) Kabiri himself has admitted to PolOff he does not want to be IRPT Chairman because of the difficult and dangerous position. His popularity threatens Rahmonov, and he half-jokingly remarked he did not want to be IRPT Chairman DUSHANBE 00001587 003 OF 003 because he valued his life and wanted to stay out of jail. Government agents have repeatedly accused him of being an agent for the west. Given the fate of the leaders of other political parties, and the general weakening of political parties in Tajikistan, IRPT members too recognize the challenging burden Kabiri shoulders. However, he is the party's best hope for unity and political survival at this point. The IRPT, united by Nuri's death and the upcoming election, faces a tenuous road ahead. END COMMENT. HUSHEK