TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI LEADS ISLAMIC PARTY AFTER NURI'S DEATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001587

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/18/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KISL KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI LEADS ISLAMIC PARTY AFTER NURI'S DEATH

CLASSIFIED BY: Tom Hushek, Charge d'Affaires, U.S. Embassy,
Dushanbe, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan
elected Muhiddin Kabiri as its acting-chairman after Nuri's
death. The press and some political analysts speculate the
party will split without Nuri's leadership and it will not elect
Kabiri as the chairman because, as a moderate, he is a
polarizing figure. However, signs point to the party uniting
after the recent death of their former chairman and supporting
Kabiri to keep the party alive. The IRPT's biggest challenge
will be to remain united and not fall victim to President
Rahmonov's plan to weaken their party in order to consolidate
his political power. END SUMMARY


IRPT UNITES IN SUPPOT OF KABIRI


2. (C) The Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan's (IRPT)
Political Council unanimously elected moderate Muhiddin Kabiri
as the party's Acting-Chairman shortly after the August 9 death
of Said Abdullo Nuri, the IRPT Chairman who led the
reconciliation process which ended the 1992-1997 Tajik Civil
War. Kabiri had been the party's de facto chairman since Nuri
fell ill with cancer almost two years ago. On September 2 the
party will hold a congress and likely confirm Kabiri as its next
chairman.


3. (C) Since he was diagnosed with cancer, Nuri has consistently
and explicitly stated that Kabiri should be the next IRPT
leader. Prior to Nuri's death, IRPT leaders from across the
party's political spectrum all swore to Nuri that they would
elect Kabiri as the next leader and give him their full support.
The press and rumors have other IRPT members defeating Kabiri
for the chairmanship. One such name is Muhammadsharif
Himmatzoda. Prior to the Political Council's vote, the party
approached Himmatzoda to be chairman, but he declined.
Himmatzoda is disabled and told the party that he is unable to
lead the party, explaining that in his final years, Nuri was too
weak and yielded to the government and Rahmonov's whims.
Himmatzoda said the party needs a physically and psychologically
strong leader and threw his support towards Kabiri. (COMMENT:
Although the party first approached Himmatzoda, this is not a
sign that he is preferable or a competitor to Kabiri. Kabiri
knew about the proposal to Himmatzoda and respects his role as a
veteran IRPT leader. END COMMENT.)


4. (C) Like many political parties, the IRPT has its share of
internal squabbles and rifts, but it appears as though all
factions are uniting after Nuri's death, at least temporarily.
Party members fall into two loose categories: moderates and
conservatives. These two categories can be broken down more
specifically into conservatives, pro-Iranian, and pro-Western
members. Many speculate these different factions will split the
party without Nuri's leadership. Realistically, unless external
forces (such as Iran or Rahmonov) pressure these factions, none
of these factions are likely to break off in the immediate term
following Nuri's death and prior to the presidential election in
November.


5. (C) The pro-western faction, also known as the "liberals,"
represents the IRPT moderates and Kabiri is their poster-child.
This faction is pro-democracy. The pro-Iranian faction (also
conservative Muslims) consists of a small number of members and
allegedly receives some funding from Iran. This group will
never come to lead the IRPT because most Tajiks are Sunnis and
would not tolerate pro-Iranian Shia leadership. The third

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group, the conservatives, comprises traditionalists who would
like to see its members adhere to Islamic values and teachings
of the Koran. This group has requested that Kabiri grow a beard
and pray more often and would be assuaged if Kabiri demonstrated
greater Islamic piety.


6. (C) The general sentiment among the party is that Kabiri, an
astute politician, has a charismatic personality and is popular
among the people. The party recognizes his successful
leadership during Nuri's illness. Kabiri has also managed to
minimize the conservatives' influence in the party. Many IRPT
members feel that the party was labeled as the "bad guys" in the
civil war conflict and realize the people of Tajikistan do not
want another civil war. The party understands that sending a
conservative leader to power would automatically make
non-members remember the conflict and cause the IRPT to lose
support.


RAHMONOV OFFENDS IRPT, SIGNALS DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP


7. (C) Embassy sources also tell PolOff the Political Council
decided an IRPT member will challenge Rahmonov in the November
presidential election. The IRPT was offended by Rahmonov's
previous snubs towards Nuri and the party. While Nuri was
alive, Rahmonov visited him on his sick bed to curry favor with
the IRPT. However, after Nuri's death, several gestures
indicate Rahmonov and the government may take a new approach
towards the party. Although widely anticipated that he would
pay his respects to the party and Nuri's family upon his August
10 return from a state visit to India, Rahmonov never sent
official condolences. The government, allegedly at Rahmonov's
instruction, would not let the family bury Nuri next to his
mentor, Hindustani, or at his home, instead forcing them to bury
him in a public cemetery. The government also restricted news
about Nuri's death. The print media published several stories
on his death and funeral, but most printed press does not reach
beyond the two main cities of Dushanbe and Khujand.
Government-controlled national television and radio did not run
reports, pictures or biographies about Nuri, despite the IRPT's
request.

COMMENT


8. (C) Rahmonov may have cooperated with the IRPT when Nuri was
alive, because he wanted to be seen as a benevolent peacemaker
and fully engaging the "opposition," as well as to gain credit
for allowing Central Asia's only legal Islamic party. Nuri was
also a very popular leader. Had Rahmonov sent Nuri, a signatory
to the National Peace Accord, to jail or toppled him, it would
have played badly in Tajikistan and internationally. However,
after Nuri's death, and because Rahmonov has successfully
consolidated political power, he has little incentive to play
nicely with the Islamic Party anymore. Rahmonov likely views
the IRPT as the only political party that could possibly
challenge his rule. He may attempt to split the party or
discredit Kabiri. The IRPT recognizes this and a continued
stable relationship with the government is a heavy concern.


9. (C) Preliminary information shows that the government may
already be attempting to dismantle the IRPT. Embassy sources
told PolOff the chairman of IRPT's regional Kulob chapter has
resigned. The reason for his resignation is unclear, but Kulob
is Rahmonov's home region and the center of much of the
political power in the national government.


10. (C) Kabiri himself has admitted to PolOff he does not want
to be IRPT Chairman because of the difficult and dangerous
position. His popularity threatens Rahmonov, and he
half-jokingly remarked he did not want to be IRPT Chairman

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because he valued his life and wanted to stay out of jail.
Government agents have repeatedly accused him of being an agent
for the west. Given the fate of the leaders of other political
parties, and the general weakening of political parties in
Tajikistan, IRPT members too recognize the challenging burden
Kabiri shoulders. However, he is the party's best hope for
unity and political survival at this point. The IRPT, united by
Nuri's death and the upcoming election, faces a tenuous road
ahead. END COMMENT.
HUSHEK