TAJIKISTAN'S POLITICAL PARTIES CONSIDER BOYCOTTING ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001470 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/2/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S POLITICAL PARTIES CONSIDER BOYCOTTING ELECTION CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy, Dushanbe, State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The three main opposition political parties are considering boycotting Tajikistan's presidential election as a statement of protest. Knowing Rahmonov will win handily and worried legitimate opposition candidates may not even have a chance to run, the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT),the Social-Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) have all told EmbOffs they may boycott the election. In a series of meetings with EmbOffs July 27-28, deputy chairmen from the three parties discussed how each party will gear up for the election, or not take action, in the absence of their chairmen. The Chairman of the IRPT is still seriously ill, the Chairman of the SDPT is in Switzerland seeking treatment for a stroke and the DPT's Iskandarov remains in detention; although he may be called to Moscow as a witness in his kidnapping trial. END SUMMARY. IRPT'S NURI INCREASINGLY ILL ¶2. (C) Said Abdullo Nuri, Chairman of IRPT, returned to Dushanbe July 26 from Germany, where he was undergoing treatment for cancer. According to Muhiddin Kabiri, Deputy Chairman of the IRPT, Nuri's health is deteriorating rapidly. The party's presidium is seriously concerned and has relocated its headquarters to Nuri's home and asked Kabiri to cancel a trip abroad. ¶3. (C) Kabiri had planned to meet with political parties in the UAE and Turkey to seek financial and political support. When asked about the IRPT's relations with Iran, Kabiri noted that the during President Ahmadinejad's visit to Tajikistan July 25-27, the IRPT did not meet with anyone from the visiting delegation. Kabiri observed that as Iran's relations with the government of Tajikistan improve, the IRPT's relationship with Iran has waned. Kabiri stressed sincere regret at not being able to meet with the Iranians. (NOTE: During the Tajik civil war, the Iranians and Afghans backed the IRPT, but Iran has since ceased assistance to the party. END NOTE.) ¶4. (C) In a recent poll by a local media outlet, Kabiri was voted as the chief rival to Rahmonov in the presidential election. However, Kabiri remains insistent he will not run, and instead predicts that his party will nominate a more conservative candidate. IRPT make-up is about 80% conservatives-- those adhering to more traditional Islamic values and customs and 20% liberals-- those, who like Kabiri, are moderate and do not strictly follow rules such as wearing a beard or praying five times a day. Despite the distinction between conservatives and liberals, he insists that the IRPT remains united. (COMMENT: The decision to run a conservative candidate may be driven by Rahmonov's expressed desire to see a more conservative Muslim lead the IRPT. With a conservative leading the IRPT, Rahmonov has better leverage potentially to label the IRPT as an extremist religious group to his political advantage. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) Despite criticisms that the IRPT is aligned with the government, Kabiri emphatically stated, "In any case, we would not support the candidacy of Rahmonov." If the IRPT is unable to register a candidate due to corrupt bureaucratic practices and technicalities, the party would either boycott the election or declare a neutral position. DPT'S ISKANDAROV STILL IN TAJIK DETENTION, BUT MAY RETURN TO MOSCOW ¶6. (C) DPT Deputy Chairman, Rahmatullo Valiev, informed PolOff that a Moscow regional court in Russia has stated that DUSHANBE 00001470 002 OF 002 Iskandarov should come back to Moscow as a witness in his own kidnapping trial. Iskandarov's relatives opened a criminal case in Russia's Karalova city charging that Russian law enforcement authorities kidnapped Iskandarov and illegally extradited him to Tajikistan. According to Valiev, the Karalova court agreed with the General Prosecutor's office that Iskandarov's return to Tajikistan was not illegal, but the Moscow regional court, overriding the decision, said Iskandarov should be called back to Moscow to testify and start an investigation. On July 31 the Karalova city court rejected the higher court's decision and refused to call Iskandarov back to Russia to testify. Iskandarov's lawyer will once again appeal to the higher Moscow regional court. Iskandarov alleged that he was illegally kidnapped to Tajikistan while in Moscow to stand trial for a variety of crimes for which he has been sentenced to 23 years in prison. (COMMENT: It is unlikely that President Rahmonov would allow Iskandarov to return to Moscow prior to the election. END COMMENT) ¶7. (C) Valiev, as in every meeting with U.S. officials, expressed great dissatisfaction in the election process and blamed the U.S. Embassy as well as the OSCE, UN, IFES and other international organizations for being complacent and not acting to improve Tajikistan's flawed election process. He also accused those organizations of working too closely with the government. (COMMENT: The U.S. Embassy and IFES have taken an inclusive approach towards reforming the election process and elections legislation. At every step of the way, they have included political parties as well as the Central Committee for Election and Referenda. END COMMENT.) SDPT'S ZOYIROV SEEKING TREATMENT IN SWITZERLAND ¶8. (C) Rahmatullo Zoyirov, the Chairman of the SDPT, is currently in Switzerland undergoing medical exams and seeking treatment for his recent stroke. It is unclear when he will return to Dushanbe, but Deputy Chairman Amniyat Abdunazarov said that Zoyirov's health is improving. ¶9. (C) The SDPT, a party of intelligentsia led by the country's premier lawyer and a drafter of the constitution, stands firmly behind its position that Rahmonov is an illegal president and he cannot constitutionally run in the presidential election. The SDPT knows well that any candidate it puts forth will not be registered. The party is considering boycotting the election to make a statement. By participating in the election, it believes it would legitimize Rahmonov as president. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: The political parties are realistically resigned to the fact that Rahmonov will win the presidential election. They also know that they will most likely not be able to register legitimate candidates in the race. With the exception of the IRPT, the parties have based their platform on decrying the president and the unfair process rather than building a platform of ideological opinions, concrete changes and services to appeal to the people. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND