AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON PRESIDENT RAHMONOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 DUSHANBE 001420 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR P, E, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, DRL, S/P E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/24/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PROP ECON EINV ENRG MARR KDEM IR AF, CH, RS, TI SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON PRESIDENT RAHMONOV CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, Exective Office, Dept. of State. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) During the Ambassador's 90-minute one-on-one farewell call with President Rahmonov July 19, the President spoke without notes, because, we learned later, he had not expected a working meeting. President Foreign Policy Adviser Erkin Rahmatulloyev told us, "Generally, ambassadors come to say a protocol good-bye, shake hands, and wonder what gift they'll get. But, on the other hand, none of the others work like you do. Except maybe [Russian Ambassador Ramazan] Adbulatipov, but he usually comes to give us orders." ¶2. (C) The Ambassador -- thanked the President for his productive partnership and reviewed the key accomplishments of the last three years, including major assistance for the Tajik Border Guards, the Pyanzh Bridge under construction, a new U.S. Embassy completed and occupied, and a major U.S. company involved in Tajikistan's hydro-electric sector. -- reviewed the investment climate and advocated for U.S. businesses facing problems (Gerald Metals and Comsup); -- advocated for a November presidential election that would meet international standards, and suggested registering and licensing new independent radio and television stations before the election, including Asia-Plus TV; -- explored the possibility of greater access by the U.S. military to support the war against terrorism in Afghanistan; and -- asked for Rahmonov's vision for Tajikistan five years from now. ¶3. (C) Rahmonov thanked the Ambassador for the work he has done during his tenure, noting it has left an "indelible mark" on Tajikistan, and, especially on the bilateral relationship. He said, "You know that anyone who matters reads and discusses every word you publish." Rahmonov thanked President Bush for the new attention and respect shown Tajikistan in the past three years. MILITARY COOPERATION ¶4. (C) Regarding increased access by U.S. and coalition forces to Tajik military facilities, Rahmonov said he would repeat what he told Secretary of Defense Rumsfled on July 10: "Tajikistan will do whatever is in its power to support the war against DUSHANBE 00001420 002 OF 005 extremism and terrorism. But," he noted, "this is not 2001. If you had taken Kulob Airfield then, you would have it now. Don't ever forget that the success of Manas depends on our blanket clearance for your use of our air space. Today, we are in a 'spiderweb' of new international commitments and cannot make unilateral decisions that violate those commitments." (COMMENT: The means Russia has largely achieved control of it's sphere of influence, unless we can think of creative ways out of this box. END COMMENT.) ¶5. (C) Rahmonov said he is extremely grateful for U.S. military assistance, notably for the National Guard, and especially for the Tajik Border Guards - "They're young and need all the help they can get. Even so, I intend to decrease the number of Russian advisers. If they were truly helping, that would be fine. But I'll tell you frankly I don't like what they are doing." ¶6. (C) Musing about the U.S. presence in the region, Rahmonov said, "You lost Karshi Khanabad in Uzbekistan. I simply do not understand your internal bureaucracy. If Karimov was annoyed with you and your presence was imperiled, why didn't you just offer him a few major 'economic projects'?" (COMMENT: This unscripted advice offers insight into how business is done in this part of the world: you can buy your way out of any problems. END COMMENT.) RUSSIA ¶7. (C) Rahmonov lamented, "Every single thing we do without permission irritates Russia." He said he's especially exasperated by the continuing anti-Tajikistan Russian-media propaganda campaign that seems to be geared to portraying Tajikistan as a feckless narco-state harboring terrorists. He added that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are also involved in this disinformation campaign about Tajikistan. (COMMENT: This is the first we've heard Rahmonov complain about Kazakhstan on this issue. He may have in mind the web site that posts Russian disinformation and is reportedly Kazakhstan-based. END COMMENT.) ¶8. (C) Rahmonov said the frequent meetings between Russian President Putin and the other CIS presidents are coming to seem like the old Soviet Politburo. He said, "I remind them at every meeting the Politburo is gone. It's a new world." He repeated heatedly, "It's a new world," then added, "but complicated. Putin thinks he's the new General Secretary. That's why we need reliable partners like the United States, but we don't have oil and gas. To reduce Moscow's power over us, we need strong economic and social development. That's why we need your help. If we become stronger, we become more independent. We do not want to be a 'toy' in anyone's hands. You tell us your views very clearly, but you don't force or threaten us. And for that I am grateful. ¶9. (C) About the new U.S. Embassy, Rahmonov said, "You are the first to build a substantial, new embassy. Never underestimate DUSHANBE 00001420 003 OF 005 the importance of symbols. It means a lot to us. Russia simply took a 'dolgostroi' [an abandoned Soviet construction project] and finished it, but it's already falling apart. FOREIGN POLICY ¶10. (C) The President reaffirmed, at length, his "open-door" foreign policy and his desire for multiple strong partners. "We will not let Russia and China intimidate us." He expressed gratitude for Washington's "objective and accurate understanding" of and growing respect for Tajikistan. ¶11. (C) In an aside, Rahmonov said he gets annoyed with European officials who call on him and "don't even know what country they're in but tell us we must be like them. But we try to take their views into consideration because we need multiple European partners." INTERNAL POLICY ¶12. "You can't force change," Rahmonov said, "but you can help us achieve it." He elaborated that he wants greatly accelerated economic development, an end to roads and especially railrods that only go north, solutions for social problems and further poverty reduction, less corruption, less labor migration, and a strong democratic civil society so that people feel they are part of the government. "But we must go slowly. Foreign governments and their NGOs don't understand they cannot replicate their own experiences here. It's essential to understand the culture and respect the traditions of the people. The fundamental mistake of the USSR was it didn't respect the traditions of its peoples. Forcing change can lead to mistakes and serious consequences." He paused and then added, "But we do respect your views and try to take them into consideration." We want to be a respected and exemplary country in a civilized world. The United States is essential in the region." ¶13. Rahmonov declined to be drawn out on the November presidential election. "It's too early. But if Rahmonov wins," he added using the third person, "Tajikistan's foreign policy will not change in any dramatic way." U.S. INVESTMENT AND WESTERN BUSINESS INTERESTS ¶14. The Ambassador explained that international legal cases involving TadAz, as a result of the upheaval there in the second half of 2004, are still causing concern for Western investors, and will continue to inhibit major investment until the cases are resolved. The Ambassador once again brought up the U.S. company Gerald Metals, and elaborated on the U.S. political risk re-insurer, Chubb, which had to pay out $125 million to Norsk Hydro because of the TadAz mess. The Ambassador said, "Whoever was mucking around at TadAz has seriously harmed Tajikistan's DUSHANBE 00001420 004 OF 005 interests, especially because political risk insurers for major investment are a very small club, and the TadAz mess is globally known." The President nodded but had no reply. ¶15. The Ambassador noted that Dushanbe Mayor Mahmadsaid Obaidulloyev is in the process of destroying the one and only European-class restaurant in Dushanbe, La Grande Dame, that was previously a favorite of Western diplomats, businessmen, and potential investors. He told Rahmonov, "This may seem minor to you, but it is totally crazy. Small things like this can have a disproportionate impact on potential investors. They'll see it as an example of chaotic risk, because the restaurant's owner, an Australian citizen, had all the proper permission for her investment and the construction of her business." Rahmonov scowled, turned red, and banged the arm of his chair with his fist, which was what we hoped would be the impact on him. (COMMENT: Rahmonov has to walk a very fine line with the Moscow-supported wildly corrupt mayor of Dushanbe, but it never hurts to get Ramonov's dander up against Obaidulloyev. END COMMENT.) HYDRO-POWER ¶16. (C) Rahmonov advocated again that the United States take a larger role in Tajikistan's hydro-energy sector. He said, "We are sincerely grateful for what you did to get AES here, but we want more U.S. active investment and involvement." He focused on the proposed Dasht-i-Zhum dam and hydro-electric station on the Pyanzh River between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. "This is as strategic for Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and the region as the Pyanzh Bridge. Like the bridge, it could be oxygen for the region. Maybe the United States can't fund the entire project, but I would like you to use your moral and economic power to take the lead in the international community to get this built. It is essential." COMMENT ¶17. (C) We believe Rahmonov believes in his vision for Tajikistan that includes a strong, democratic civil society. But what he means and what we mean by those words are not necessarily yet fully congruent. His constant emphasis on the need to respect the culture and traditions of the country is not wholly just a blow-you-off excuse for his vested-interest go-slow approach on these issues. Tajikistan is in a very tough geographical and ideological neighborhood. Internally, he still has many political enemies, like Obaidulloyev. And, certainly, Rahmonov is a product of his place and time. But he is a shrewd and increasingly sophisticated player who sort of gets what we say. We need continually to nudge, but not try to shove, him in the right direction. ¶18. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Rahmonov was pleasant, complimentary, relaxed, and confident. He sported a new light gray summer suit from his personal tailor at Brioni who flies in from Italy about every six months. We are pleased he allowed 90 minutes for the meeting, especially if he had been expecting DUSHANBE 00001420 005 OF 005 only 10-15 minutes. This is a busy time for him. Besides the normal flow of business, the election is looming, July 21-22 he was in Moscow for the informal CIS "Summer Horse Race Summit," and July 25-27 Iran's President Amadinejad will be in Dushanbe. Rahmonov told us he expects the Chinese Prime Minister for an official visit September 15. END COMMENT. ¶19. Kabul minimized considered. HOAGLAND