TAJIK FOREIGN MINISTER NAZAROV ON INCREASING REGIONAL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001285

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/6/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK FOREIGN MINISTER NAZAROV ON INCREASING REGIONAL
INTRIGUE

CLASSIFIED BY: THOMAS ARMBRUSTER, CDA, FRONT OFFICE , State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(d)




1. (S) In a 'just between us' session with the Ambassador on
July 6, Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov offered a litany of
challenges to Tajikistan's regional foreign policy and even
sovereignty. The meeting was ostensibly to preview Secretary
Rumsfeld's July 10-11 visit with President Rahmonov, but Nazarov
is clearly focusing on much more than the U.S.-Tajik bilateral
relationship.


2. (S) The intrigue begins with neighboring Uzbekistan.
Nazarov expects a "provocation" any day, because of Uzbek
dissatisfaction with Tajikistan's increasingly close
relationship with the United States, Tajik debt to Uzbekistan,
the threat of Tajik hydropower controlling regional water and
energy resources, and previous regional commitments to begin a
visa-free regime with Tajikistan. Uzbekistan is suspected by
some to have been behind a number of incidents including a
deadly attack on a Tajik border post and a harmless, if noisy
late-night series of small downtown explosions some weeks ago.
Nazarov believes Uzbekistan could follow Russia's lead and cut
off gas supplies to Tajikistan as well, just as Russia has to
show displeasure with Kiev and Tblisi. President Rahmonov and
Uzbek President Karimov apparently lost ground at a recent
meeting in Sochi, with Karimov promising to cut off roads to
Tajikistan if the TadAz aluminum plant expands and if RusAl
actually builds Rogun dam and hydropower station.


3. (S) But it is Russian propaganda, covert activities, and
diplomatic pressure that Nazarov admits will complicate any U.S.
proposal for increased military engagement in Tajikistan. He
described a diplomatic flap started by an article attributed to
Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Karasin. Karasin was reported
to have cautioned that the Americans were preparing to offer
Tajikistan "hundreds of millions of dollars" for a U.S. base.
The Tajiks protested with a dipnote that the Russians demanded
be withdrawn. Tajik - Russian relations have been off kilter
ever since the Russians (and Uzbeks we learned) pressured other
countries not to attend the U.S.- sponsored counternarcotics

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conference held in Dushanbe in May. All of this makes for a
"very complicated situation" according to Nazarov. Tajikistan
also has to consider its commitments to regional powers to CIS
bodies to which it belongs (like CSTO and EEC) and to consult
with regional before entering into new security arrangements.


4. (S) Nazarov said all Central Asian leaders would be called
to Moscow in July and again to a meeting in Sochi in August for
"consultative meetings" with President Putin. When the
Ambassador noted Tajikistan is a sovereign country and can make
its own decisions, Nazarov smiled and said, "no one is really
sovereign yet."


5. (S) COMMENT: At the end of the day, Tajikistan's own
fundamental interests include a stable and prosperous
Afghanistan, something the United States is working hard to
ensure and that Russia has only a limited interest in. As
President Rahmonov's Foreign Policy Adviser told the Ambassador,
Tajikistan welcomes the issue of further U.S. military
engagement in Tajikistan, but behind the scenes there will be
many long discussions until the President himself declares his
intentions, if indeed Tajikistan is asked.HOAGLAND