PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER ON TAJIK-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, UZBEKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 001013 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR P, E, SCA/FO, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS NSC FOR MILLARD, MERKEL MANILA PLEASE PASS TO ADB-AMB. SPELTZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/31/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ECON EINV ENRG UZ RS TI SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER ON TAJIK-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, UZBEKISTAN CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy Dushanbe. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy Dushanbe. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy Dushanbe. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Although they met ostensibly for Presidential Adviser Rahmatulloyev to give a read-out of the Putin-Rahmonov meeting in Sochi, Rahmatulloyev, clearly authorized by President Rahmonov, spent much of the 90-minute meeting laying out Tajikistan's exasperation with Russia and Uzbekistan. He said, "We reject 19th-century great games." The Ambassador reiterated his invitation for President Rahmonov to cut the ribbon June 28 at Embassy Dushanbe's New Embassy Compound, and delivered orally Washington's reply to President Rahmonov's request for bilateral debt relief. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) The Ambassador, at his request, met with Presidential Foreign Policy Adviser Erkin Rahmatulloyev on May 30 for a read-out of President Rahmonov's May 27 meeting with Russian President Putin in Sochi. During the pre-substance banter, the Ambassador noted it had been quite a while since they had met, because the U.S.-Tajik relationship has been on an even keel. The Ambassador assured Rahmatulloyev he had no new problems to raise. Rahmatulloyev responded quite seriously, "But we have a big problem, and I'll tell you about it." ¶3. (C) The Ambassador observed the press accounts of the Rahmonov-Putin meeting had seemed mundane, even restrained. However, the Ambassador said, he knew from three recent encounters with President Rahmonov in as many weeks that Rahmonov was quite irritated with aspects of the Tajik-Russian relationship. Rahmatulloyev said, "That's the problem I want to tell you about." ¶4. (C) Rahmatulloyev said the Sochi meeting had been "constructive," even "very constructive." However, two years after Oleg Deripaska's RusAl had signed agreements to build the Rogun dam and hydroelectric station and to upgrade the Tajik Aluminum Plant (TadAZ) as well as to consider a new aluminum plant, the only project RusAl has concretely begun is construction of the new Hyatt Hotel in Dushanbe. On the other had, current problems at Sangtuda-1 dam and hydroenegy station with Russian energy monopoly RAO UES are simply the kinds of glitches to be expected on any project of that size, and President Rahmonov is satisfied with RAO UES and its chairman Anatoliy Chubais. (C)OMMENT: As we wee it, not all glitches are technical. The Russian government was repoertedly planning to fund 100 percent of Sangtuda-1, but now RAO UES is working with the World Bank to secure international funding. END COMMENT.) DUSHANBE 00001013 002 OF 004 THAT DAMN DAM ¶5. (C) Rahmonov is especially exasperated with RusAl because the Rogun project was envisioned to provide reliable power to Tajikistan and enough to export to Afghanistan and Pakistan. RusAl, however, seems to see Rogun as its private domain to supply just enough power for its supposed aluminum interests in Tajikistan, primarily TadAZ. ¶6. (C) RusAl insists that Tajikistan accept a lower, concrete dam at Rogun, rather than the planned higher earth-fill dam, like the successful one already in place at Nurek. Rahmatulloyev noted that Tajik and international seismologists worry that a concrete dam would be prone to structural failure in earthquake-prone Tajikistan, whereas Nurek has withstood significant seismic activity for over 20 years. RusAl commissioned the German consulting firm Lahmeyer to study the project, and Lahmeyer recommended the lower, concrete dam. Rahmatulloyev noted RusAl "paid the piper and picked the tune." He added even Lahmeyer has since admitted that a concrete dam does not make sense for the project, but that's what it was paid to recommend. Rahmatulloyev added an earth-fill dam would begin to clear a profit in five to seven years, whereas a concrete dam would take three times as long to become profitable. He said President Rahmonov has ordered an independent study by the World Bank of the two alternatives - concrete or earth-fill - with the longer-term view of attracting an international consortium to build Rogun. TAJIKISTAN, AN UZBEK OBLAST? ¶7. (C) With Rogun a potential plus for the region and potentially profitable for Russia, why aren't the trucks rolling into Tajikistan with construction equipment and supplies? In a word, according to Rahmatulloyev, Uzbekistan. He alleged that President Karimov, in his most recent meeting with Putin in Sochi, warned Putin he would do everything in his power to prevent Tajikistan from "holding the key" to energy and water in the region. Karimov supposedly vowed to prevent any goods and supplies related to Rogun's construction from passing through Uzbekistan to reach Tajikistan. Rahmatulloyev commented, "That is another reason why the U.S.-funded Pyanzh Bridge is so vitally important. It will provide an alternative to get construction supplies and equipment into Tajikistan." According to Rahmatulloyev, President Rahmonov believes Russia, in its myopic quest to maximize Uzbekistan's turn to Moscow, will do anything to satisfy Karimov, including accept Karimov's conditions on Tajik hydropower. Rahmatulloyev said, "We believee this new relationship is at our expense." He urged the Ambassador to make this situation known in Washington so that the United States could consider playing a role to broker a solution. The Ambassador promised to pass the message, but noted, given current geopolitics, there is little we can do at this time with Uzbekistan and even with Russia. ¶8. (C) In response to a question, Rahmatulloyev acknowledged Tajikistan has suspicions, though no concrete evidence, Uzbekistan could have staged the May 12 Tajik-Kyrgyz border posts attack that killed several Tajik border guards. Why? Uzbekistan joined the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) in January and must by June 1 accede to the EEC's requirements for member states of visa-free transit, demined borders, and the free transit of goods. In Rahmatulloyev's view, Uzbekistan has no intention of implementing those provisions with Tajikistan DUSHANBE 00001013 003 OF 004 (or any other Uzbek neighbor),and a "well-timed terrorist attack" could give Karimov the excuse to wiggle out of his commitments. ¶9. (C) Even if this turns out not to be true, Rahmatulloyev pointed out, Uzbekistan still harbors and supports former Tajik coup-plotter Colonel Khudoberdiyev and his 1,400 armed men - all of whom receive official Uzbek support, identity documents, and protection. Rahmatulloyev said President Rahmonov had laid out the situation in great detail for President Putin, who did not respond. Rahmatulloyev asked heatedly, "How can we talk about regional cooperation and security with this impossible person [Karimov]? Why does his National Security Service run these [Khudoberdiyev] camps against us?" He answered himself sarcastically, "Karimov sees Tajikistan as a future Uzbek oblast!" "WE DON"T WANT RUSSIA'S 19TH-CENTURY GREAT GAME" ¶10. (C) The Ambassador asked about press reports Putin in Sochi had promised Rahmonov new material assistance for the Tajik Border Guards (TBG). Rahmatulloyev responded, "Putin 'promised,' but he's promised before. We'll see." He recounted that last year Putin, in Rahmonov's presence, had ordered the Russian Border Force during its final pull-out from the Tajik-Afghan border to leave behind eight helicopters for the TBG. "But it was never implemented. In the end, the Russians left two of their oldest helicopters that aren't airworthy for mountain flying," Rahmatulloyev said with evident disgust. He added, "And now Russia continues to portray us as incapable of controlling our borders." ¶11. (C) Rahmatulloyev said Rahmonov was highly irritated Russia had tried to scuttle Central Asian participation in the recent U.S.-organized international counter-narcotics conference in Dushanbe. The Ambassador agreed Russia's attempt to undercut the conference had no logic, given the impact of Afghan narcotics on Russia itself. Rahmatulloyev said the Tajik side had been advised in advance Putin would raise this issue in Sochi, "but he was wise enough to have avoided it." Rahmatulloyev characterized Russian and Uzbek attitudes as "19th-century great-game playing." He emphasized Tajikistan wants pragmatic relations, "not games," with key players. ¶12. (C) The Ambassador responded we understand it is difficult for Tajikistan, but see President Rahmonov's "open-door foreign policy" as a success. He reiterated U.S. policy has remained consistent - adamant support for Tajikistan's independence and sovereignty. He added, "No one wants to see Tajikistan as a 'Russian oblast.'" INVITATION FOR RAHMONOV TO CUT THE NEC RIBBON ¶13. (C) The Ambassador noted the Embassy had sent a diplomatic-note request and that he himself had personally asked Rahmonov to cut the ribbon for the Embassy Dushanbe NEC on June ¶28. He added we would understand if Rahmonov decided "political constraints" would make that too difficult for him. Rahmatulloyev remembered Rahmonov had promised three years ago to participate in the ribbon-cutting ceremony if the United States ever completed its new Embassy. He undertook to remind Rahmonov of that promise. U.S. DEBT RELIEF FOR TAJIKISTAN DUSHANBE 00001013 004 OF 004 ¶14. (C) As agreed by e-mail with SCA/CEN, the Ambassador delivered an oral response to President Rahmonov's letter to President Bush requesting forgiveness of Tajikistan $18 million bilateral debt. Rahmatulloyev quipped, "I used to think Soviet bureaucracy was 'the best' in the world. I now see yours is even 'better'!" ¶15. (C) COMMENT: We know that even the most senior officials like Rahmatulloyev check in with President Rahmonov for marching orders before they meet with the Ambassador. We have known Rahmonov is increasingly irritated with Russia, and it is clear he authorized Rahmatulloyev to tell us at least some of what is on his mind, if not all that transpired in Sochi. The stormy Tajik-Russian relationship is on rough waves right now, in part because of the Moscow-Tashkent love-fest - or at least short-term convergence of interests. By contrast, the U.S.-Tajikistan relationship is an even-keeled voyage of promises kept by both sides, for the most part. On-going reform by the Tajik government and responsive U.S. humanitarian, development, and security assistance has resulted in the kind of open relationship of trust that allows the Ambassador to spend a frank and cordial 90 minutes with one of Rahmonov's most senior advisers. It is clear Tajikistan values its no-drama, no-surprises relationship with the United States. END COMMENT. HOAGLAND