PRE-GAERC DEMARCHE: GOI EXPECTS PRELIMINARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000530

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2015
TAGS: PREL PARM UN EUN MW SR BO IR IZ CG SU LI
EI
SUBJECT: PRE-GAERC DEMARCHE: GOI EXPECTS PRELIMINARY
DISCUSSION ON POSSIBLE IRAN PACKAGE

REF: A. STATE 74555

B. ROSENBERGER-USEU/BRENNER CORRESPONDENCE OF MAY
11-12

Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Mary E. Daly; Reasons 1.4 (
B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: On May 11, Post delivered ref A pre-GAERC
demarche to Jim Kelly, Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) EU
correspondent, and, on May 12, further discussed ref A's Iran
points with Stephen Dawson, DFA First Secretary for the
Middle East and North Africa. Dawson expected GAERC
ministers to offer preliminary thoughts on a possible EU
package of incentives/sanctions encouraging Iran to comply
with the March 29 UNSC Presidential Statement, as reported
May 11-12 in the international press. Kelly anticipated that
GAERC discussion on Iraq would be brief and keyed to
conclusions welcoming the selection of Prime
Minister-designate Nuri al-Maliki. Regarding the DRC, Kelly
observed that the Irish Cabinet had recently approved the
assignment of 10 military personnel to MONUC to help oversee
elections in July. On Liberia, the GOI supported a trial for
Charles Taylor under the Special Court for Sierra Leone
mandate at The Hague, but could not provide incarceration for
Taylor if convicted, as there was no bilateral legal
instrument to effect such a transfer. Kelly cited Ireland's
support for a UN mission in Darfur, and he asked emboffs to
clarify the form of support that NATO could offer AMIS,
noting AMIS' misgivings about "NATO boots on the ground."
Regarding the Balkans, Kelly related GOI hopes for a
legitimate outcome in the Montenegrin referendum, but
expressed GOI disappointment with Bosnia's failure to approve
constitutional reform and with Serbia's lack of cooperation
with ICTY. End summary.

Iran
--------------


2. (C) The GOI expected GAERC ministers to offer preliminary
thoughts on a possible EU package of incentives/sanctions
encouraging Iran to comply with the March 29 UNSC
Presidential Statement, as reported May 11-12 in the
international press, said Dawson. He noted that ministers
would likely confer on the broad shape and possible subject
areas of the package, as it was too soon to discuss the
initiative in detail. Dawson added that the EU-3 would
carefully coordinate the evolving elements of any package
with the United States, Russia, and China. Separately, Kelly
observed that GAERC consultations on Iran would also focus on
the April 28 IAEA report and negotiations on a possible UNSC
resolution. Ireland's position on Iran, he added, had not
changed; the GOI supported the EU-3 approach and preferred a
diplomatic solution. Kelly had not seen former Iranian
nuclear negotiator Hassan Rohani's May 9 letter to Time
magazine, but he described President Ahmadinejad's May 8
letter to President Bush as another Iranian "feint" that in
no way represented serious diplomatic engagement. He said
that the GOI had no current plans to approach Tehran
bilaterally, but he promised to pass to DFA's senior
leadership our request for EU Member States to bring
influence to bear on the Iranian Government.

Iraq
--------------


3. (C) Kelly anticipated a brief GAERC discussion on Iraq
over lunch, keyed to conclusions that would welcome the
selection of Nuri al-Maliki as Prime Minister-designate and
urge continued progress toward a government of national
unity. Discussion would not likely range to possible
additional EU assistance to Iraq, though the GOI and other
Member States looked forward to more detail on evolving
proposals for an international Afghan-style compact with the
new government. Reiterating past DFA points, Kelly observed
that the security situation in Iraq made it difficult for the
GOI to disburse assistance funds already committed, or to add
to those commitments.

Democratic Republic of Congo
--------------


4. (C) On May 9, the Irish Cabinet approved the assignment
of 10 military personnel to the expanded United Nations
Organization Mission in the Congo (MONUC) to help oversee the
DRC's July elections, recounted Kelly. As the decision had
only been made in recent days, he was unsure when the
personnel would arrive in the DRC and what exact function

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they would perform. In terms of greatest potential threats
related to the elections, Kelly highlighted, first, security
at the polls and, second, the possible violent fallout if the
electorate did not accept the results. Regarding the Lord's
Resistance Army, Kelly referred emboffs to Pauline Conway,
DFA Counsellor for Africa, who noted that Irish Aid (the
GOI's USAID-equivalent agency) had a long-standing
relationship with the Great Lakes region that included
assistance to areas victimized by the LRA.

Liberia
--------------


5. (C) Kelly did not expect the GAERC to focus on Liberia,
as the Africa point on the meeting agenda would cover the
EU-Africa Ministerial Troika, Darfur, and elections in Chad.
The GOI, he observed, favored a trial for Charles Taylor
under the Special Court for Sierra Leone mandate at The
Hague. Ireland, however, could not provide incarceration for
Taylor if convicted, as there was no bilateral legal
instrument to effect such a transfer. On this point, Kelly
again referred emboffs to DFA Africa Counsellor Pauline
Conway, who believed that Denmark and Austria had already
turned down the Dutch on Taylor's possible transfer. She
added that Sweden had also apparently said "no," but was
still reviewing possibilities under domestic legislation for
taking Taylor.

Darfur
--------------


6. (C) Ireland was pleased with the Darfur Peace Agreement
and hoped that factions remaining outside the agreement could
eventually sign on, said Kelly. The GOI, he added, now
looked to the international community to step up humanitarian
assistance to Darfur and to move toward the establishment of
a UN mission for the region. Kelly cautioned, however, that
AMIS participants had expressed misgivings about having "NATO
boots on the ground." He asked emboffs to clarify the form
of support that NATO could offer, e.g., whether strengthened
airlift capacity might be included. (We intend to share with
DFA ref B information that NATO could provide 4-500 soldiers,
who would work primarily as trainers, observers, and
advisors. Twenty percent of this contingent would be
American.)

The Balkans
--------------


7. (C) Regarding the Balkans, Kelly related the GOI's hope
that the Montenegrin referendum would be conducted in a free
and fair manner, with a result that could not be questioned.
He also expressed GOI disappointment with Bosnia's failure to
approve constitutional reform and with Serbia's lack of
cooperation with ICTY. Kelly anticipated that GAERC
ministers would share views on prospects for Serbia's stalled
SAA talks. He did not expect that Balkan regional
cooperation would feature in the GAERC discussions, and he
added that EU Member States would likely follow the
Commission's lead on amending the Stability Pact.
Kenny