IRPO: IRANIAN MPS INDICATE US MESSAGE NOT REACHING POPULACE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 005191 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR DRL, R, NEA NSC FOR M. SINGH ALSO FOR USDAO ABU DHABI E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/14/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENRG ETTC IR ZP AE SUBJECT: IRPO: IRANIAN MPS INDICATE US MESSAGE NOT REACHING POPULACE DUBAI 00005191 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy M. Brys, Acting IRPO Chief, Dubai, UAE. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) 1.(S//NF) Summary: Iran Regional Presence Office (IRPO) Chief and IRPOoff met three Iranian Majles deputies (MPs) in early August. The MPs explained average Iranians want peaceful nuclear technology, not nuclear weapons. They said Iranians only hear the government's line on the matter and do not know USG policy, a situation they urged the USG to rectify. One MP said he expects the GOI to reject the P5+1 offer. USG visa rejections for a Sharif University reunion in California have damaged the US image in Iranian eyes and produced confusion about US visa policy. The MP from Ardabil believes Iran instigated Hizballah's kidnapping of Israeli soldiers that sparked the violence in Lebanon. He also said he sees Iranian interference in Iraq and though he supports regime change in Iran, prefers change from within. End Summary. 2.(C//NF) Iran Regional Presence Office (IRPO) Chief and IRPOoff met with three Iranian MPs, all of whom were in Dubai applying for US visas. On August 2, Iran's Assyrian MP, Yonathan Bet Kolia, spoke about Iranian impressions of USG policies and the status of religious minorities (septel). Bet Kolia sought a visa to visit his AmCit wife and children who have lived in the US for 12 years. He said he remains in Iran because the Assyrian community asks him to fill leadership positions. This is his second term in parliament, where he sits on the executive committee of the Majles Cultural Commission. On August 7, Moris Motamed, Iran's Jewish MP, commented on the nuclear issue and Iran's role in Lebanon. Motamed is serving his second term in parliament. He also works as an Iranian topography consultant. On August 8, Nouradin Pirmoazen, Ardabil's reformist MP and a surgeon specializing in thoracic operations, offered candid recommendations on how the USG could better reach the Iranian population. Iran's Nuclear Portfolio: US Message Not Reaching Iranians -------------- -------------- 3.(C) All three MPs claim Iranians support acquiring nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Bet Kolia said Iranians regularly suffer electricity blackouts that ruin refrigerated food and therefore see the need to supplement Iran's energy supply. Each MP indicated Iranians only hear the government's line on this issue, which characterizes USG policy as opposing Iran's acquisition of nuclear technology and technological advancement in general. IRPO Chief explained the USG does not want Iran to enrich its own uranium because of nuclear weapons concerns but is not against access to nuclear technology for energy generation. The MPs said this message has not filtered through to the street. In any case, the average Iranian would not understand the technical issues involved. Pirmoazen in particular provided two suggestions to clarify USG policies and combat the government's line. First, the USG should simplify its message. Second, it should engage Iranians directly through effective speakers on Radio Farda and VOA. Bet Kolia described Iranians as highly factionalized but also nationalistic; they tend to unite against common threats. For this reason, he advised USG actions considered belligerent by Iranians would alienate those with normally pro-American sensibilities. 4.(C//NF) Pirmoazen discussed Iran's larger nuclear strategy. He believes the Iranian government will reject the P5+1 proposal. He said those in charge of Iranian nuclear policy currently perceive the US as relatively weak considering the resources it must devote to Iraq and Afghanistan, high oil prices, and, in the policy makers' view, a faltering economy. These factors embolden Iranian policymakers to confront the US over the nuclear program. He said Iran knows the US election cycle -- Iran will stall for two years until President Bush finishes his second term and a new president emerges before deciding on longer-term nuclear strategy. Motamed estimated 190 of Iran's 290 MPs support Iran's current nuclear stance. The remainder want to cooperate with the IAEA to move Iran back into international favor. Sharif University Visa Rejections -------------- DUBAI 00005191 002.2 OF 003 5.(C) All three MPs expressed dismay about the last minute visa revocations for Iranians traveling to the Sharif University of Technology Alumni Association reunion in Santa Clara, California. Like its nuclear spin, the Iranian government portrayed the USG as luring Iran's most educated to the US by granting visas only to "humiliate" them for political reasons once they arrived. The MPs said the revocations caused significant damage to the US's image because the Sharif alumni are upper-class, generally hold pro-American views, and either have family in the United States or have already spent considerable time there. They claimed Iranians now question whether to apply for a visa, and professors and intellectuals in particular are confused about USG policy. When IRPO Chief said USG policy has not changed, the MPs stressed the USG should provide that information to the Iranian people over Radio Farda and VOA because they have only heard the GOI version of the story. Iran Probably Instigated IDF Kidnappings -------------- 6.(S//NF) Pirmoazen indicated Iran works closely with Hizballah and provides significant funding, which he was told by another government official equals 100 million dollars (NFI). In his view, Hizballah would not have abducted Israel's soldiers without Iranian knowledge. He said Iran probably instigated the kidnappings. Motamed claimed roughly half of the Iranian population supports Hizballah. Iranian Interference in Iraq -------------- 7.(C//NF) Pirmoazen emphasized repeatedly that US success in Iraq is critical to dealing successfully with Iran. Cultivating a secure, democratic Iraq will help USG credibility and present a major problem "for the Mullahs." The Iranian leadership knows this, however, and is working to make certain the US does not succeed. Pirmoazen said he met former President Khatami in 2003. Khatami told him Iran's Security Council produced four plans for the Iraq war. First, don't let the US attack Iraq. Second, if the US attacks, make sure the attack fails. Third, if America unseats Saddam, do not let it install a stable government. Fourth, if the US sets up a government, ensure it is pro-Iranian. Pirmoazen claims Iran provides ample support to elements in Iraq to make sure they realize these goals (NFI). Regime Change in Iran -------------- 8.(S//NF) The current situation in Iraq has colored Pirmoazen's attitude toward regime change in Iran. He said before the Iraq war he did not oppose US military action against the Iranian government, but after US difficulties in Iraq he favors internal change. He said many young Iranians are pro-American and do not like the regime. These people suffer from unemployment, high inflation, and are resentful the government has not kept its promises to improve economic conditions. Pirmoazen believes the key to unseating the regime lies with young Iranians and he already sees Ahmadinejad's popularity decreasing. Most Iranians Want Better Relations With the US -------------- -- 9.(C//NF) The MPs highlighted the Iranian people's generally favorable view of the US. Bet Kolia said Iranians viewed positively proposed US-Iranian talks this past Spring, and he believes most want to resume diplomatic relations. He claimed a few government officials have asked him to broach the subject via the Assyrian lobby in the US, and specifically through a Congressional representative. A minority of unnamed hardliners, however, still do not want to negotiate. Comment -------------- 10.(C) The MPs suggest the best US asset within Iran is its reputation with the Iranian people. The MPs indicated that when an issue involving the US arises they listen to Radio Farda and VOA, which they view favorably, for the USG perspective. With regard to the nuclear issue and visa revocations, however, the MPs believe the USG has not provided simple information in a DUBAI 00005191 003.2 OF 003 timely fashion to explain its policies or rebut Iranian government propaganda. Cultivating Farsi speakers who consistently appear on Radio Farda and VOA -- and perhaps establishing an Alhurra-like television station -- appear to be reliable methods to ensure USG policies are accurately communicated to the Iranian people. BRYS