DUBAI BUSINESSMAN'S VIEWS ON RAFSANJANI

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBAI 002597 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/9/2031 TAGS: PGOV PREL IR SOCI SUBJECT: DUBAI BUSINESSMAN'S VIEWS ON RAFSANJANI CLASSIFIED BY: Jason Davis, Consul General, Dubai , UAE. REASON: 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Mohammed Mohebi, a UAE national businessman and president-elect of the Young Entrepreneurs Organization (YEO) in Dubai, told CG over dinner May 2 that his "good friend" Yasser Rafsanjani (son of Expediency Council Chair and former President Rafsanjani) had in recent months provided a good deal of insight into how his father viewed recent developments in Iran. ¶2. (C) According to Mohebi (whose mother is an LA-based Iranian national),Rafsanjani believes that he lost last year's presidential election only because Supreme Leader Khamenei "stole" it from him by issuing a direct order to the Basij, in their millions, to vote for Ahmadinejad themselves, and to each take 10 other Iranians to the polls with them. Khamenei had allegedly done this because Rafsanjani, flush with overconfidence in the run-up to the run-off elections against Ahmadinejad, had alarmed or offended Khamenei by talking too openly about his vision for his presidency. His fatal mistake, Rafsanjani purportedly believes, was mentioning to Khamenei that a day might even come when vilayat al-faqih and the Supreme Leader position might be unnecessary for Iran. (Rafsanjani's vision had also included restoring relations with the U.S., but this was not cited as one of the reasons Khamenei had turned against him.) ¶3. (C) Mohebi said it is Rafsanjani's belief that Ahmadinejad had initially been quite unpopular in Iran, but that his hard line reaction to escalating international pressure related to Iran's nuclear program had caused support for him to grow dramatically (much to Rafsanjani's dismay.) Rafsanjani was currently "very frustrated" and at a loss as to how to react. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Much of what Mohebi says tracks with comments from other Iranians, particularly as regards Ahmadinejad's rise in popularity and Rafsanjani's inaction. Perhaps predictably, his comments parallel most closely those of another contact (septel to follow) who also claims ties to Yasser Rafsanjani. DAVIS