ONE IRANIAN REFORMER'S REACTION TO RECENT U.S. POLICY

S E C R E T DUBAI 001728 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/22/2016 TAGS: PGOV PREL IR SOCI SUBJECT: ONE IRANIAN REFORMER'S REACTION TO RECENT U.S. POLICY STATEMENTS CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE. REASON: 1.4 (d) 1.(S) In a March 15 meeting with PolEconChief, a prominent Iranian reformer who asked for confidentiality expressed concern about the consequences of the current U.S. spotlight on assistance for democratic change in Iran. The activist -- noticeably more nervous about talking to a U.S. official than in our previous meeting -- was concerned that the new U.S. initiatives would have a negative impact on reformers in Iran and made the following points: -- The Iranian government is stepping up pressure on reformers inside the country, and contacts with foreign NGOs and think tanks are now viewed as more suspect than in the past. People who go to conferences in other countries are more frequently questioned upon return. (Note: The activist was unsure what would happen upon returning to Iran after speaking at a March conference in the U.S., but nonetheless felt obliged to speak out.) -- People-to-people exchanges, particularly involving universities, are the only remaining relatively unfettered area. Universities are still viewed as somewhat distinct from government. The U.S. could facilitate such exchanges by speeding up the visa clearance process. (Note: this activist's visa took five weeks to approve and was only approved after multiple follow-up requests from the consulate.) The impact of academic exchanges takes more time but are beneficial long-term. -- The U.S. government should not put too much stock in the views of the Iranian diaspora. People who left at the time of the revolution do not understand what is going inside Iran today. -- Expanding VOA broadcasting is a worthwhile project -- more information is always better -- but the most important task ahead is capacity-building inside Iran. However, the U.S. government should not directly insert itself into this process. 2.(S) Comment: This reformer is a former member of parliament who has tried to change Iran from within the system. These reformers tend to be more cautious than oppositionists in Iran who work from outside the system. That said, the more the media spins our position into sounding like outright regime change, the more difficult it will be for Iranians to be seen to be in contact with the new Iran office in Dubai or for us to do public outreach from here. Other Iranians have indicated there has already been a recent chilling effect in some areas of cooperation with U.S. entities, although more so with NGOs than with universities. We also regularly hear concerns that people are nervous to be in communication via email or phone with us. 3.(S) Comment continued: On a possibly related note, the UAE recently refused a visa to a relatively outspoken Iranian academic from a prominent think tank who recently spoke about Iran at a U.S. think tank. Hossein Hafezian (please protect) from the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies was applying to attend the March 12-14 Women as Global Leaders Conference in the UAE. While there may be other reasons for the refusal and this is only a single occurrence, we will watch for any signs that UAE is closing its doors to those who might be seen as potential "troublemakers," either at the direct request of Iran or preemptively, in order to avoid the risk of raising its neighbor's ire. Should this happen, it could impact our efforts to do public outreach from Dubai. DAVIS