ONE IRANIAN REFORMER'S REACTION TO RECENT U.S. POLICY

S E C R E T DUBAI 001728

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL IR SOCI
SUBJECT: ONE IRANIAN REFORMER'S REACTION TO RECENT U.S. POLICY
STATEMENTS


CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(S) In a March 15 meeting with PolEconChief, a prominent
Iranian reformer who asked for confidentiality expressed concern
about the consequences of the current U.S. spotlight on
assistance for democratic change in Iran. The activist --
noticeably more nervous about talking to a U.S. official than in
our previous meeting -- was concerned that the new U.S.
initiatives would have a negative impact on reformers in Iran
and made the following points:

-- The Iranian government is stepping up pressure on reformers
inside the country, and contacts with foreign NGOs and think
tanks are now viewed as more suspect than in the past. People
who go to conferences in other countries are more frequently
questioned upon return. (Note: The activist was unsure what
would happen upon returning to Iran after speaking at a March
conference in the U.S., but nonetheless felt obliged to speak
out.)

-- People-to-people exchanges, particularly involving
universities, are the only remaining relatively unfettered area.
Universities are still viewed as somewhat distinct from
government. The U.S. could facilitate such exchanges by
speeding up the visa clearance process. (Note: this activist's
visa took five weeks to approve and was only approved after
multiple follow-up requests from the consulate.) The impact of
academic exchanges takes more time but are beneficial long-term.

-- The U.S. government should not put too much stock in the
views of the Iranian diaspora. People who left at the time of
the revolution do not understand what is going inside Iran
today.

-- Expanding VOA broadcasting is a worthwhile project -- more
information is always better -- but the most important task
ahead is capacity-building inside Iran. However, the U.S.
government should not directly insert itself into this process.

2.(S) Comment: This reformer is a former member of parliament
who has tried to change Iran from within the system. These
reformers tend to be more cautious than oppositionists in Iran
who work from outside the system. That said, the more the media
spins our position into sounding like outright regime change,
the more difficult it will be for Iranians to be seen to be in
contact with the new Iran office in Dubai or for us to do public
outreach from here. Other Iranians have indicated there has
already been a recent chilling effect in some areas of
cooperation with U.S. entities, although more so with NGOs than
with universities. We also regularly hear concerns that people
are nervous to be in communication via email or phone with us.

3.(S) Comment continued: On a possibly related note, the UAE
recently refused a visa to a relatively outspoken Iranian
academic from a prominent think tank who recently spoke about
Iran at a U.S. think tank. Hossein Hafezian (please protect)
from the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East
Strategic Studies was applying to attend the March 12-14 Women
as Global Leaders Conference in the UAE. While there may be
other reasons for the refusal and this is only a single
occurrence, we will watch for any signs that UAE is closing its
doors to those who might be seen as potential "troublemakers,"
either at the direct request of Iran or preemptively, in order
to avoid the risk of raising its neighbor's ire. Should this
happen, it could impact our efforts to do public outreach from
Dubai.

DAVIS