DJIBOUTI AND FOOD SECURITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DJIBOUTI 000077

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF
STATE PASS USAID
USAID FOR OFDA/ECARP
NAIROBI FOR REDSO AND OFDA
PARIS FOR OECD
ROME FOR FAO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID ECON EINV EAGR DJ
SUBJECT: DJIBOUTI AND FOOD SECURITY

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SUMMARY
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1. REDSO/FFP OFFICER TRAVELED TO DJIBOUTI 3-8 NOVEMBER, MET WITH
WFP, UNHCR AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS, AND TRAVELED TO DIKHIL AND
TADJOURAH DISTRICTS TO ASSESS FOOD SECURITY CONDITIONS IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE.


2. DUE TO SUCCESSIVE SCANTY RAINFALL SEASONS AND INCREASED
MARKET PRICES, THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION OF DJIBOUTIANS IS
POOR - THOUGH NOT CURRENTLY AT A CRITICAL LEVEL - WITH
INCREASING STRESS ON PASTORALISTS AS WELL AS ON URBAN DWELLERS.
WFP WILL EXTEND ITS EMERGENCY OPERATION (EMOP) THROUGH MARCH
2006, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL TRANSITION INTO A PROTRACTED RELIEF
AND RECOVERY OPERATION (PRRO). WFP PLANS A JOINT FOOD SECURITY
ASSESSMENT IN BOTH RURAL AND URBAN AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
YEAR IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY AND QUANTIFY NEXT YEAR'S PROPOSED PRRO.


3. THE OFFICIAL REFUGEE POPULATION IN DJIBOUTI NOW STANDS AT
AROUND 9,600 PEOPLE (THOUGH IS BELIEVED TO BE ACTUALLY
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER) IN TWO CAMPS, DOWN FROM 15,600 IN THREE
CAMPS DURING OUR LAST VISIT IN APRIL. UNHCR NOW HOPES TO
REPATRIATE APPROXIMATELY 4,000 MORE PEOPLE TO SOMALILAND BEFORE
THE END OF THE YEAR, AND IS NEGOTIATING WITH THE GRD TO CLOSE
HOLL-HOLL CAMP. WFP CONTINUES TO PROVIDE HALF RATIONS TO
REFUGEES IN ORDER TO CONTINUE THE CURRENT MOMENTUM OF VOLUNTARY
REPATRIATION, CONSIDERING ALSO THAT CASELOAD NUMBERS ARE QUITE
INFLATED AND THAT THE REFUGEES HAVE NOT ALLOWED THEMSELVES TO BE
COUNTED SINCE 1997.


4. REDSO/FFP AND USAID/DJIBOUTI RECOMMEND THAT FFP CONTRIBUTE
$750,000 TO THE WFP/DJIBOUTI EMOP, ON THE UNDERSTANDING THAT
PART OF THIS CONTRIBUTION WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE SUCCESSOR
PRRO IN APRIL. WE DO NOT RECOMMEND A CONTRIBUTION TO THE REFUGEE
PRRO AT THIS TIME, THOUGH DO BELIEVE THAT AN ADDITIONAL $750,000
MAY BE NECESSARY LATER IN FY 2006 TO RESPOND TO SHORTFALLS IN
BOTH THE REFUGEE PRRO AND THE UPCOMING DROUGHT-AFFECTED PRRO.
END SUMMARY

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DJIBOUTIAN FOOD SECURITY SITUATION: FIELD VISITS
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5. THE CURRENT FOOD SECURITY SITUATION OF RURAL DJIBOUTIANS IS
POOR, BUT NOT CRITICAL - RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT WE FOUND IN
APRIL. WHILE DJIBOUTI COULD NEVER BE DESCRIBED AS LUSH - WITH
LESS THAN 150 MM AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL - PASTORALISTS ARE
DEPENDENT ON THESE MINIMAL RAINS TO SUSTAIN THEIR LIVESTOCK WITH
WATER AND PASTURE. ACCORDING TO FEWS, THE RECENT KARAN RAINS
WERE POORLY DISTRIBUTED, AND CURRENT COASTAL XEYS/DADA RAINS
HAVE BEEN DELAYED. SUCCESSIVE POOR RAINFALL SEASONS HAVE
INCREASED STRESS ON PASTORALISTS SEARCHING FOR WATER AND
PASTURE.


6. IN ADDITION, ACCORDING TO FEWSNET, BECAUSE OF FUEL PRICE
INCREASES, OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS THE COST OF ESSENTIAL FOOD
AND NON-FOOD ITEMS HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY, HAVING A
NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE FOOD SECURITY OF BOTH RURAL AND URBAN
POOR HOUSEHOLDS. AS A RESULT, CASUAL LABOR OPPORTUNITIES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DECLINE, FURTHER REDUCING INCOME AND FOOD
ACCESS FOR POOR URBAN HOUSEHOLDS. WFP IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING
EMERGENCY FOOD DISTRIBUTIONS TO AROUND 47,500 DROUGHT-AFFECTED
PEOPLE IN THE RURAL DISTRICTS FOR A SIX-MONTH PERIOD.


7. IN DIKHIL DISTRICT, REDSO/FFP VISITED YEBOKI AND HANLAY
VILLAGES. WFP DISTRIBUTES GENERAL RATIONS TO 44 LOCALITIES IN
THE DISTRICT, AS WELL AS FOOD TO 11 SCHOOLS. DIKHIL PASTORALISTS
NOTED THAT THE PASTURE AND WATER SITUATION WAS NOW MORE
DIFFICULT
FOLLOWING TWO POOR YEARS IN A ROW, WITH A NUMBER OF REPORTED
ANIMAL
DEATHS - MAINLY GOATS AND YOUNG CAMELS. FUEL FOR THE VILLAGE
BOREHOLE, HOWEVER, RATHER THAN FOOD, WAS AT THE TOP OF THEIR
NEEDS
LIST.


8. IN TADJOURAH, THE SITUATION WAS REPORTED TO BE MORE DIFFICULT
IN LESS-ACCESSIBLE INLAND COMMUNITIES OF DORRA AND THE LAKE
ASSAL AREA, THOUGH THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF A MAJOR CRISIS.
TADJOURAH HOSPITAL WAS JUST OPENING A THERAPEUTIC FEEDING
CENTER, WITH SUPPORT FROM WFP, AND HAD NOT SEEN LARGE NUMBERS OF
MALNOURISHED CHILDREN TO DATE. HOWEVER, THEY THOUGHT THAT ONCE
THE FEEDING PROGRAM BEGAN RUNNING, MORE CHILDREN WOULD ARRIVE.


9. WFP DISTRIBUTES FOOD TO 10,000 DROUGHT-AFFECTED PEOPLE IN
TADJOURAH DISTRICT, THOUGH LOCAL OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN CLAMORING
FOR SUPPORT TO SOME 16,000 PEOPLE - EVEN THOUGH THE ORIGINAL
FIGURE HAS BEEN THOUGHT TO BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER EVEN THAN THE
ACTUAL RURAL POPULATION. WFP WILL CONTINUE USING THE INITIAL
FIGURES, BEING EXTREMELY WARY OF THE EXAGGERATED POPULATION
NUMBERS, AND BELIEVES IT NEEDS TO BEGIN PHASING OUT THE GENERAL
DISTRIBUTIONS SINCE THEY ARE NOT CRITICALLY NEEDED.


10. WFP BEGAN DISTRIBUTING GENERAL RATIONS IN SEPTEMBER, AND
PEOPLE NOTED THAT THEY WERE BEING SHARED WITH OTHERS IN THE
COMMUNITIES, ENDING UP WITH JUST A FEW KG PER PERSON. HOWEVER,
WHEN PEOPLE WERE QUESTIONED ABOUT THE "INSUFFICIENT" FOOD
QUANTITIES, THEY COMPLAINED MAINLY ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SUGAR
RATHER THAN OTHER COMMODITIES.


11. ALTHOUGH MANY (IN FACT, VIRTUALLY ALL) RURAL FAMILIES
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT FROM THEIR RELATIVES IN DJIBOUTI
CITY, THERE ARE SOME CHRONICALLY VULNERABLE IN THE VILLAGES WHO
REMAIN IN NEED. IN ADDITION, WITH THE CURRENT FOOD SECURITY
SITUATION FOR RURAL DJIBOUTIANS BECOMING MORE FRAGILE, THERE HAS
BEEN SUBSTANTIAL PASTORAL MIGRATION TO ETHIOPIA (MOSTLY
SEASONAL) AS WELL AS TO DJIBOUTI CITY TO SEEK WORK AND FOOD.
GIVEN THE RISES IN FOOD AND NON-FOOD PRICES, THERE IS CLEARLY A
NEED TO ASSESS THE CITY AS WELL TO DETERMINE URBAN FOOD SECURITY
CONDITIONS.


12. WFP/DIKHIL STAFF WERE VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE AND INFORMATIVE,
AND NOTED THE DIFFICULTIES OF GENERAL DISTRIBUTION ESPECIALLY
REGARDING POPULATION NUMBERS, SUGGESTING THAT FOCUSING ON
NUTRITION AND FFW COULD BE A BETTER ALTERNATIVE TO GENERAL
DISTRIBUTIONS. WFP/TADJOURAH STAFF HOWEVER WERE SOMEWHAT WEAKER
THAN THEIR COLLEAGUES IN DIKHIL, PARROTING COMMUNITY REQUESTS
FOR 50% POPULATION INCREASES IN THE GENERAL DISTRIBUTION WITHOUT
ANY SOLID ASSESSMENT OR ANALYSIS.


13. WFP PLANS A JOINT FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT WITH FEWS, UNICEF
AND THE GRD IN DECEMBER. WHILE MOST OBSERVERS AGREE THAT THE
SITUATION REMAINS SERIOUS, THE MORE DIFFICULT ISSUES WILL BE
POPULATION NUMBERS, TARGETING APPROACH AND THE SITUATION OF
URBAN DWELLERS. DJIBOUTI'S FIRST EVER MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS ARE
SCHEDULED FOR DECEMBER, ADDING WHAT IS HOPED WILL BE A LEVEL OF
BETTER ACCOUNTABILITY IN THE TARGETING PROCESS. FOR NOW,
HOWEVER, THE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS WFP NEEDS TO ANSWER ARE: HOW
MANY PEOPLE ARE MOST AFFECTED AND CHRONICALLY VULNERABLE; AND
HOW CAN IT BEST TARGET THEM?


14. IF THE COASTAL XEYS/DADA RAINS FAIL OCTOBER-FEBRUARY,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SERIOUS. BASED ON THE UPCOMING JOINT
ASSESSMENT IN DECEMBER, WFP WILL LIKELY CONVERT ITS EMERGENCY
OPERATION (EMOP) INTO A PROTRACTED RELIEF AND RECOVERY OPERATION
(PRRO) BEGINNING IN APRIL. WFP PLANS TO USE THE ASSESSMENT TO
JUSTIFY AND QUANTIFY A PLANNED TWO-THREE YEAR PRRO FOR
VULNERABLE DJIBOUTIANS, PHASING OUT GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS AND
PHASING IN FOOD-FOR-WORK ACTIVITIES AND MORE TARGETED SUPPORT TO
VULNERABLE PEOPLE IN RURAL AND POSSIBLY URBAN AREAS OF THE
COUNTRY.

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REFUGEE STATUS
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15. THE RELATIVELY SMALL DJIBOUTI REFUGEE CASELOAD HAS OVER THE
YEARS BEEN ONE OF THE BIGGEST HEADACHES PER CAPITA WORLDWIDE,
WITH REFUGEES REFUSING TO BE COUNTED SINCE 1997 AND REPATRIATION
MOVEMENT SLOW. HOWEVER, UNHCR IN THE LAST TWO YEARS HAS HELPED
GREATLY IN BUILDING MOMENTUM FOR REPATRIATION, WITH WFP'S RATION
CUTS SINCE MARCH THIS YEAR PLAYING A LARGE SUPPORTING ROLE.

16. REFUGEE NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO AROUND 9,600 PEOPLE FROM 15,600
IN APRIL, AND AOUR AOUSSA CAMP WAS CLOSED IN MID-2005 - DUE TO
UNHCR'S REPATRIATION PUSH, AS WELL AS TO WFP'S RATION CUTS.
UNHCR IS NOW PLANNING TO REPATRIATE APPROXIMATELY 4,000 MORE
REFUGEES TO SOMALILAND BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A
PLAN TO CLOSE HOLL-HOLL CAMP IN THE COMING MONTHS, AND THE NEW
UNHCR REPRESENTATIVE IS BEGINNING NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE GRD ON A
TARGET DATE. THAT SAID, CURRENT INSTABILITY IN ETHIOPIA IS NOT
ADDING ANY URGENCY TO CAMP CLOSURE AT THE MOMENT.


17. REFUGEE NUMBERS HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN, AND UNHCR/WFP ESTABLISHED JOINTLY EARLIER THIS YEAR
THAT HALF RATIONS WOULD CONTINUE TO BE PROVIDED UNLESS A
REVALIDATION EXERCISE COULD TAKE PLACE. WFP HOWEVER CONTINUES
ITS SUPPORT TO SUPPLEMENTARY AND THERAPEUTIC FEEDING CENTERS IN
THE CAMPS.


18. WFP HAS NOW ALREADY MAINTAINED 50% REFUGEE RATIONS FOR THE
PAST EIGHT MONTHS. THE MEDICAL NGO AMDA HAS CONDUCTED MONTHLY
NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENTS WITH WFP, AND NOTED NO ADVERSE EFFECTS
FROM THIS REDUCTION, DUE LIKELY TO WHAT ARE BELIEVED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY EXAGGERATED OFFICIAL REFUGEE NUMBERS. WFP AND AMDA
OF COURSE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NUTRITIONAL SITUATION IN
THE CAMPS.


19. THE NEW UNHCR/DJIBOUTI REPRESENTATIVE, DILLAH DOUMAYE, IS
NOW FOCUSED (CORRECTLY IN OUR VIEW) ON REPATRIATION RATHER THAN
ON A REVALIDATION EXERCISE, AND VOLUNTARY REPATRIATES TO
RELATIVELY-SAFE SOMALILAND HAVE INCREASED THIS YEAR, PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE REDUCED FOOD RATIONS IN THE CAMPS. IT IS AS YET
UNCLEAR WHAT STAND HE WILL TAKE ON THE HALF-RATION ISSUE, BUT
REDSO/FFPO AND UNHCR'S OWN STAFF EXPRESSED SUPPORT FOR
CONTINUATION OF THIS DURING OUR VISIT. WFP HAS NOW DONE THE SAME
FOLLOWING OUR VISIT. THERE IS CERTAINLY A NEED FOR A CONCERTED
EFFORT TO MAINTAIN HALF RATIONS IN THE CAMPS AND CONTINUE THE
REPATRIATION MOMENTUM THAT HAS BEEN BUILT UP OVER THE PAST
MONTHS.

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WFP PLANS
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20. FFP CONTRIBUTED APPROXIMATELY $1.5 MILLION TO WFP IN FY
2005, ROUGHLY SPLIT BETWEEN VULNERABLE DJIBOUTIANS AND REFUGEES
(INCLUDING THE REPATRIATION FOOD PACKAGE). THE PIPELINE FOR THE
EMOP IS CURRENTLY STRONG, BUT WILL REQUIRE SUPPORT BEFORE ITS
REMAINING COMMODITIES ARE CARRIED OVER INTO THE NEW PRRO IN
APRIL. THE REFUGEE PRRO'S PIPELINE IS CURRENTLY RATHER HEALTHY
(WITH HALF RATIONS) THROUGH MID-2006.


21. AT PRESENT, WFP HAS THREE OPERATIONS IN DJIBOUTI: 1)
DROUGHT-AFFECTED EMOP; 2) COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM SUPPORTING
SCHOOL AND OTHER INSTITUTIONAL FEEDING; AND 3) REFUGEE PRRO.
WFP/DJIBOUTI'S NEW COUNTRY DIRECTOR BELIEVES THIS IS TOO MANY
FOR SUCH A SMALL COUNTRY, AND WFP SHOULD HAVE A SINGLE PRRO FOR
ALL ITS ACTIVITIES.


22. WFP PLANS TO ACHIEVE THIS IN THREE STEPS: FIRST, PHASE OUT
THE EMOP'S GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS, AND PHASE IN FOOD-FOR-WORK
ACTIVITIES WITH APRIL'S PRRO. THE DECEMBER FOOD SECURITY
ASSESSMENT WILL HELP TO JUSTIFY THIS NEW PRRO; SECOND, THOUGH
STILL IN THE DISCUSSION STAGE, POSSIBLY PUT THE DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAM INTO THIS PRRO, WHERE THE ACTIVITIES COULD HAVE MORE
FLEXIBILITY AND LIKELY BETTER FUNDING AS WELL; AND THIRD, END
THE REFUGEE PRRO BY DECEMBER 2006 OR (IF THE CASELOAD REMAINS
OVER 5,000 PEOPLE) FOLD IT INTO ONE ALL-ENCOMPASSING PRRO IN

2007. WE THINK THAT WFP'S STREAMLINING PLANS MAKE SENSE FOR SUCH
A SMALL COUNTRY AND PROGRAM.


23. IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE TERM, WFP NEEDS TO CONDUCT A JOINT IN-
DEPTH FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT, INCLUDING THE URBAN AREAS, AND
HELP BETTER IDENTIFY POPULATION NUMBERS, TARGETING CRITERIA AND
MECHANISMS TO REPLACE GENERAL DISTRIBUTIONS.

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CONCLUSION/RECOMMENDATIONS
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24. REDSO/FFP AND USAID/DJIBOUTI BELIEVE THAT THE FOOD SECURITY
DIFFICULTIES IN DJIBOUTI ARE SERIOUS, THOUGH NOT CURRENTLY AT
CRITICAL LEVELS, AND THAT A JOINT FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENT
COMPRISING FEWS, WFP, UNICEF AND GRD SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN BEFORE
THE END OF THE YEAR IN ORDER TO JUSTIFY AND QUANTIFY WFP'S
TRANSITION TO A PRRO FROM ITS CURRENT EMOP. USAID/FFP WILL ALSO
BE INVOLVED WITH WFP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PRRO.


25. WE ADDITIONALLY BELIEVE THAT UNHCR IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION BY CONTINUING TO BUILD REPATRIATION MOMENTUM, HAVING
NOW CLOSED AOUR AOUSSA CAMP AND TRYING TO CLOSE HOLL-HOLL IN THE
COMING MONTHS. WFP'S HALF RATION HAS LIKELY HAD AN IMPACT IN THE
REPATRIATION INCREASES, WITH SOMALILANDERS NOW LESS RELUCTANT TO
RETURN HOME. IN ORDER TO ALLOW THESE REFUGEES TO CONTINUE
REPATRIATING VOLUNTARILY, WE BELIEVE THAT STRONG INERTIA-
INDUCING DRAGS TYING THEM TO THE CAMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
REMOVED, AND THAT WFP IS FULLY JUSTIFIED IN MAINTAINING THE
REDUCED REFUGEE RATION.


26. THERE WILL BE CONTINUING FOOD SECURITY NEEDS IN DJIBOUTI
THROUGH 2006, AT LEVELS TO BE DETERMINED IN THE COMING WEEKS AND
MONTHS. GIVEN THESE CONTINUING NEEDS, AND THAT WFP'S NEW PRRO
WILL NEED RESOURCES AS SOON AS IT BEGINS IN APRIL, WE RECOMMEND
THAT FFP IMMEDIATELY PROVIDE $750,000 TO WFP'S CURRENT EMOP,
WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT PART OF THIS COULD BE CARRIED OVER
TO THE EMOP'S SUCCEEDING PRRO.


27. WE DO NOT RECOMMEND A CONTRIBUTION TO THE REFUGEE PRRO AT
THIS TIME, THOUGH DO BELIEVE AN ADDITIONAL $750,000 MAY BE
WARRANTED LATER IN FY 2006 FOR THE REFUGEE PRRO AS WELL AS THE
UPCOMING DROUGHT-AFFECTED PRRO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
REPORT ON THE SITUATION, AND RECOMMEND FURTHER RESOURCES AS
APPROPRIATE.