GUELLEH AND A/S FRAZER DISCUSS SOMALIA,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000748 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER STATE FOR AF AND AF/E NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR COURVILLE DOD FOR AF/DAS THERESA WHELAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPKO MARR DJ SO ET ER SUBJECT: GUELLEH AND A/S FRAZER DISCUSS SOMALIA, ETHIOPIA/ERITREA Classified By: A/S JFRAZER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. We need your blessing on the new process for Somalia as an example for other international groups, President Ismail Omar Guelleh told visiting A/S Jendayi Frazer on June 21. All levels of Somali society want to be heard by the Americans, said Guelleh. He believes that Somaliland and Somalia should be united under one administration, now that the Islamic Courts are "ready to receive the TFG" and core extremists can be isolated. He also stressed that Djibouti is counting on the United States to create a good climate between Ethiopia and Eritrea. He acknowledged that the problem is very complex, with the personal dispute between Isaias and Meles at the core of it. END SUMMARY. -------------- SOMALIA: "A NEW SITUATION" -------------- ¶2. (C) A/S Frazer met with Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh on June 21 to discuss recent events in Somalia and the Ethiopia/Eritrea border issue. A/S Frazer told Guelleh that her visit was at the request of Secretary Rice, and that United States interests were in strengthening the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI),building capacity, providing development assistance, and maintaining regional stability in the face of a failed state, Somalia, and the Ethiopia/Eritrea conflict. A/S Frazer said the United States was seeking to better understand the Islamic Courts, and how to push for dialogue. ¶3. (C) President Guelleh offered his perspective in a historical context dating back to Djibouti's 1991 conference on regional reconciliation, Ethiopia's 1993 failed conference, Egypt's 1997 failed efforts, Djibouti's 2000 conference of traditional and civil society, which also failed, and finally efforts in Kenya from 2002-2004 to bring together Somali political factions, including warlords. Guelleh commented that warlords in the cabinet have opposed the transitional government out of fear that they would lose personal sources of income. The people of Somalia, he said, know the United States has supported them in the past. All levels of Somali society want to be heard by the Americans, and all want good relations with the United States, he said. Guelleh added that the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) "has nothing to do with religion." Rather, he describe it as clan-based. Shari'a law is used because it is the common law of the population. According to Guelleh, the vast majority of Somalis are against extremism and only small extremist groups from Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Sudan are behind these new Islamic Courts. ¶4. (C) Guelleh expressed the belief that defeat of the warlords and the rise of the Islamic Courts create "a new situation" for Somalia since the courts "are ready to receive the TFG and allow it to come to Mogadishu to work." Guelleh lamented the fact that, out of the five years in the transitional period, two were already gone. Guelleh also commented on the clan dynamics between PM Ghedi and UIC Chairman Sheikh Sharif Ahmed who are from the same Abgal sub-clan. Guelleh noted that PM Ghedi is afraid of being replaced by Sheikh Sharif. ¶5. (C) Guelleh went on to say that Ethiopia had been quite anxious over the UIC's entry into Beledwyne. The Government of Ethiopia recalls the strength of Al-Ittihad Al-Islami (AIAI) when Ethiopia confronted them in 1997, and they have legitimate fears, Guelleh added. Yet Guelleh also noted that Eritrea has meddled in Somalia, and both Ethiopia and Eritrea have assisted in its fall. Eritrea, he said, had helped the ONLF and Oromo Liberation Front. ¶6. (C) According to Guelleh, the United States should participate in the Somalia dialogue as an example for others. DJIBOUTI 00000748 002 OF 003 He said Djibouti is committed to assist the TFG, but the TFG has no right to treat others as terrorists. A/S Frazer asked Guelleh for his suggestions on how to proceed against the terrorists. Guelleh said that the Al-Qaeda operatives had been located in Mogadishu. "They are trapped animals with nowhere to go," Guelleh said, and are only protected by their ability to pay. "Somalis want money," he continued. "Without money," he said, "no Somali will protect them." Guelleh added that a mechanism was needed to "push" them out. Guelleh asserted that "we" could get them out - it was only a matter of "technicality." Guelleh responded that the core extremists can be isolated, and offered assistance from Djiboutian intelligence services to obtain information from Mogadishu. He also insisted that warlord Hassan Dahir Aweys, who had attempted to run arms between Somalia and Ethiopia, had been captured and is being detained. (NOTE: This has not been independently confirmed. END NOTE.) -------------- KHARTOUM TALKS -------------- ¶7. (C) A/S Frazer inquired about the status of Arab League negotiations in Khartoum. Guelleh said Djibouti's Foreign Minister was in Khartoum for the Arab League meeting, and that Djibouti would press both the TFG and the Islamic Court delegation to a memorandum of understanding so that the sides may continue discussions. A/S Frazer inquired if the Islamic Court delegation would be able to make decisions, given the low-rank of its participants. Guelleh affirmed that five intellectuals and five heads of prominent clans had full power to sign agreements. On IGASOM peacekeeping and a proposed lifting of the U.N. arms embargo in Somalia, Guelleh stated that they are two different issues. He said a partial lifting of the embargo against small arms would allow TFG troops and police to succeed. Heavy weapons, on the other hand, should be collected. He also said that Somalis would oppose an IGASOM presence in Somalia, and urged IGAD to wait for the outcome of the meeting in Khartoum before sending in foreign troops, due to the sensitivity of the issue. Guelleh also said the UNSC might also assess the necessity and risk of deployment. ¶8. (C) A/S Frazer told Guelleh that the U.S. Somali community wanted to see sufficient space for the sides in Somalia to talk. On the other hand, the U.S. is worried about the development of Islamic extremism. She asked the president if he thought it prudent for the U.S. to develop a contingency plan in case the moderates failed? Guelleh reiterated his belief that the extremists "will be isolated" and that the Somali people "will never accept a hard-line Islamic Government." -------------- SOMALILAND -------------- ¶9. (C) In response to A/S Frazer's inquiry about his views on the status of Somaliland, Guelleh said Somalia should be reunited under an administration that takes into account the distance between Mogadishu and Hargeysa. He expressed the view that the majority in Somaliland know there is no alternative to a united Somalia and that the international community will not accept separation. Somalia is, he said, "one language, one culture, and one tradition" that cannot be separated. Yet, the new administration should give a voice to Somaliland, which Guelleh characterized as a one-clan state that lives in peace and receives money from its diaspora. Guelleh noted that the most prominent Islamic leader in Somalia currently lives in Somaliland (NOTE: Guelleh was referring to Sheikh Ali Warsame, who is President in Burao. END NOTE.) -------------- ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA DJIBOUTI 00000748 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶10. (C) A/S Frazer also raised the Ethiopia/Eritrea border issue with President Guelleh. She said the U.S. got Ethiopia to agree to publicly accept the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Commission (EEBC) delimitation decision. There would now be the necessity to accept demarcation lines and address the consequences of the impact on the population. She said U.S. efforts were aimed at getting Ethiopia and Eritrea to look at practical implications of physical and human geography. President Guelleh responded that "officially, Ethiopia is saying that there will never be normal relations with Eritrea while Isaias is in power. Eritrea," he continued, "only wants the legitimacy of war. If Ethiopia accepts to give up, Badme Isaias can say 'we were right'." ¶11. (C) A/S Frazer noted the difficulties of trying to resolve a dispute where each leader seeks to "de-legitimze" the other and queried whether it might be better to hand the dispute back to the U.N. Guelleh responded that there is a potential for peace, but that Djibouti's participation in this area is small. Djibouti is counting on the United States, he said, to create a good climate between the two nations. He reaffirmed his view that the issue is a personal problem between the two leaders, and thereby difficult to resolve, even though Djibouti enjoys good relations with both. As far as Eritrea is concerned, Guelleh commented, perhaps in jest, that only Libyan President Muammar Qaddafi appears to be the individual who can nudge Isaias. ¶12. (S/NF) In a follow-on meeting with the Head of Djiboutian National Security Service, Hassan Said, A/S Frazer highlighted the U.S. priority of rendering Al-Qaeda operatives in Mogadishu to justice. Said contradicted President Guelleh's earlier comments regarding the whereabouts of AQ operatives in Somalia. Said noted that Harun Fazul's location was "unknown," that Fazul is believed to have had plastic surgery and is therefore difficult to located, but that Kismaayo and Ras Kamboni are thought to be his favored locations within Somalia. Said hoped to be able to locate Fazul. Said noted that AQ operative Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan is also "elusive," but that Abu Talha Al-Sudani had been located in Mogadishu. While Abu Talha's exact location is unknown, Djibouti is getting a better sense of his movements. Said noted that there is "no evidence" of foreign fighters in Mogadishu, and that President Guelleh has personally handled the recent contacts with the Ayr in Mogadishu. RAGSDALE