EXPLAINING LAST WEEK'S UPSURGE OF VIOLENCE IN DILI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000549

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MTS
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
PACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/3/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREF ASEC KJUS KPKO AU TT
SUBJECT: EXPLAINING LAST WEEK'S UPSURGE OF VIOLENCE IN DILI

REF: DILI 534

DILI 00000549 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political/Economic Officer,
U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)

1. (C) Summary: While gang-related disturbances have become a
regular feature of day-to-day life in recent months, last week's
upsurge of violent confrontation was on a greater scale and with
more lethal consequences. In addition, these disturbances were
accompanied by what appeared to be a concerted campaign to
discredit Australian forces. This combination has caused many
observers to conclude that the violence was instigated for
political ends, with the group around former Prime Minister Mari
Alkatiri identified as the prime culprit. Whether or not this
is the case, it is clear that Alkatiri's supporters are using
the situation to drive their own agenda of painting themselves
as victims of a conspiracy and reducing the role of Australian
troops here. The incidents also point to Dili's continued
vulnerability to large-scale disturbances. In addition, they
underscore the two primary outstanding challenges to resolve
East Timor's ongoing crisis: the need for a political solution
to end the ongoing elite power struggle and the need for
policing and judicial systems to function effectively enough to
end the current pervasive sense of impunity. End summary.

Increased disturbances accompanied by anti-Australian campaign
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2. (U) While gang-related disturbances have become a regular
feature of day-to-day life in recent months, last week's upsurge
of violent confrontation was on a greater scale and with more
lethal consequences than seen since international forces took
control of security in early June. This spike included:
widespread fighting in the Comoro areas on October 22,
effectively shutting down normal activity in this part of town
and with one confirmed death; fighting between groups of up to
400 each on October 25 in and around the internally displaced
person (IDP) camp adjacent to the airport, resulting in one
death and the airport's closure for one day; fighting in the
Fatuhada neighborhood near the U.S. Embassy on October 25
resulting in one death; and an attack in the Bebonuk
neighborhood on October 27 in which two people were killed.


3. (U) In addition to the greater scale and lethality, these
disturbances were accompanied by what appeared to be a concerted
campaign to discredit Australian forces. Shortly following the
death near the airport IDP camp on October 25, the claim that
the victim had been shot by an Australian Defense Force officer
began circulating especially among camp residents, despite
strong evidence to the contrary. On Friday, following the
killing of two men in Bebonuk, a story was immediately
circulated that they had been arrested the previous evening by
ADF and then their bodies dumped on the beach the following day.
This story caused a near riot in the market area where the two
men had worked as fish vendors. East Timor's daily newspapers
quickly picked up on this version of the story, reporting in
front page stories that ADF was suspected to be linked with the
deaths.

Political actors behind the violence?
--------------

4. (C) The combination of the much greater scale of the
disturbances with an apparent anti-Australian misinformation
campaign has caused many observers to conclude that last week's
violence was instigated for political ends, with the "Mozambique
clique" (the group around former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri
which dominates the leadership of the ruling Fretilin party)
identified as the prime culprit. International police have
noted for months that many of the unemployed men they arrest for
gang violence are well supplied with alcohol, cell phones, and
cash. The Prosecutor General (who it should be said has his own
agenda) has relayed to Emboffs that he has evidence pointing to
Alkatiri family involvement in supplying the gangs. ADF sources
have also said that much of the money trail can be traced to
Alkatiri's brother, Ahmed. However, while suspicions are rife,
proving such a connection is another matter. Moreover, at least
some of the resource access can be explained by the extortion
practices of many gang members or patronage at a more local
level.

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5. (SBU) Whether or not the Mozambique clique/Fretilin
leadership has been directly involved in instigation, it is
clear that they are taking maximum rhetorical advantage of the
situation to drive their own agenda of painting Alkatiri's
resignation as resulting from "a well-planned conspiracy"
involving Australia and of reducing the Australian military role
here. On October 25, the day of the airport closure, Parliament
passed a resolution calling for all international security
personnel be put under one UN command. This demand was
reiterated by Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres, President of
Parliament and a key Alkatiri ally, a few days later when
receiving a European Union delegation. (Note: A press release
from the office of the Prime Minister the next day reaffirmed
support for the Australian and New Zealand troops as an
independent force working "side-by-side" with the UN.) In
recent days, Lu'olo has been relaying to international media
that Parliament had received multiple complaints of maltreatment
by Australian forces. According to a UN human rights advisor,
none of these "complaints" seem to be going to any other
relevant bodies such as the Provedor (Ombudsman) for Human
Rights or the UN. She thinks it likely that some excessive
force has been used but that it is a relatively minor issue.

Continued vulnerability
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6. (U) Last week's events clearly demonstrate Dili's continued
vulnerability to large-scale disturbances. Multiple overlapping
phenomenon have combined to create an environment where
political actors can instigate disturbances with relative ease.
These phenomenon include: the continued presence of tens of
thousands of IDPs, with several camps in particular developing
as sources of instability; the entrenchment of the East-West
(Lorosae-Loromonu) issue as a still new but now very real social
divide; the revival of many long-standing conflicts between
communities, martial arts groups, and other groupings; and a
pervasive sense of lack of law and order. Until these issues
are addressed adequately, we can expect regular disturbances to
continue. Like the incidents last week, the timing and location
is likely to remain difficult if not impossible to predict.
However, the pattern of incidents being relatively localized is
expected to continue. For example, while last week's incidents
impacted a large number of neighborhoods on the western side of
Dili, many areas remained relatively untouched and the eastern
side of the city saw virtually no problems.


7. (U) Comment: While the causes of instability in Dili are
multifaceted, last week's developments again underscore the two
primary challenges that must be addressed for any durable
progress to be made. First, the ongoing crisis is essentially
about a struggle among elite Timorese both for power and for
competing political visions. Until there is a measure of
political solution at the highest levels, this elite struggle
will continue to be played out on the streets of Dili. At
present, despite multiple efforts to promote dialogue, no
substantive progress has been made on that front. Second, a
culture of impunity for criminal acts pervades Dili and must
end. Perpetrators can reasonably expect not to be arrested, and
if they are, to be released within hours or days. While some
criticism can be levied at the limited effectiveness of the
international police, responsibility ultimately lies with the
Timorese judicial system which continues to demonstrate that it
is grossly insufficient to respond to the challenges. End
comment.
GRAY