UPDATE ON EAST TIMOR ELECTION ISSUES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000528 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, DRL PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT SUBJECT: UPDATE ON EAST TIMOR ELECTION ISSUES DILI 00000528 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. Summary: Representatives of IFES, the International Republican Institute (IRI),and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) on October 18 briefed Charge d'Affaires on their electoral related programs and the current status of preparations for the 2007 elections. Discussions centered around three key areas of current concern. First, Parliament has yet to approve an electoral law framework for the elections, and probably will not for at least another month. Second, the government-controlled body responsible for election administration is slated to receive far more support than the independent body tasked with overseeing its work. Third, both the ruling Fretilin party and some opposition parties may not be ready to campaign fairly or to accept an election outcome in which they lose. End summary. IFES, IRI and NDI election support -------------- ¶2. At a briefing on October 18 for Charge d'Affaires, representatives of IFES, IRI and NDI provided an overview of their electoral-related activities and their views and concerns regarding current election developments. Main activities include: -- IFES: providing analysis and advice regarding the development of electoral institutions and legal framework. Organized a series of briefings for the international community on the draft electoral laws. Commissioned an evaluation of the role of the National Elections Commission (CNE) during the local elections in 2005. -- IFES and IRI: with USAID support and in coordination with several national NGOs, organized a series of civil society workshops on the draft electoral laws. -- IRI: providing training for all registered parties. Will also be training party agents as observers for the elections, with a goal of having 2-3 observers from each party at every voting station -- NDI: Providing support to the Parliamentary committee responsible for review of electoral laws. Will be supporting the establishment of a network of domestic non-partisan observers. Electoral law discussions continue, no consensus law in sight -------------- -------------- ¶3. Currently under discussion in Parliament are two competing versions of the law on parliamentary elections, one drafted by Fretilin and one by the opposition. (Discussions on drafts of 
the presidential election law are reportedly on hold until the parliamentary one is passed.) Opportunities for key stakeholders and civil society to review and discuss the draft laws have been relatively good. The Parliamentary Committee for Constitutional Issues, Rights, Liberties and Guarantees A, (Committee A) held public consultations on the draft parliamentary election laws over the first two weeks in October. While the NDI representative remarked that there were a "large number of good inputs," the IFES rep highlighted several concerns, noting that much of the testimony to the committee was in the form of rote reading of statements with limited practical suggestions on the laws. Moreover, it was evident that the election-related knowledge of the committee members is quite limited, with many key issues -- such as the representational system and the electoral formula -- getting little or no attention. ¶4. Current estimates are that it will be at least another month before a parliamentary election law will be passed. The Committee A chairman notes that there are only a "few items of divergence." However, IFES rep argues that the currently identified areas of divergence are in fact significant so getting a consensus document will take time. Given Fretilin's dominance in Parliament, there is the possibility that its version will simply be pushed through, resulting in a faster timeline. However, President Xanana Gusmao has his own strong priorities for the law which are much more in line with opposition views and Fretilin would run the risk of a Presidential veto if they refuse to compromise on their version. Anuncompromising stance by Fretilin conceivably could also result in a boycott of the election by opposition parties. DILI 00000528 002.2 OF 002 National supervision of election administration may be weak -------------- -------------- ¶5. A major concern expressed by the briefing participants was that the National Elections Commission (CNE),the independent body to be entrusted with supervising and monitoring the elections,may lack the powers and capacity to do so effectively. Current developments significantly disadvantage the CNE vis-`-vis the Technical Secretariat for Elections Administration (STAE),the government body responsible for election logistics which CNE is supposed to supervise. The Government's FY2006-2007 budget funds STAE at ten times the amount allotted for CNE. Moreover, the UN Development Program's (UNDP) electoral assistance plan is primarily focused on assistance to STAE with only cursory treatment of CNE. Part of the difficulty of ensuring strong support of a CNE now is that the body does not yet exist since its establishment is predicated on the passage of the electoral law. Given that the parliamentary election law discussions could continue into December, the future CNE is likely to be further weakened by having insufficient time to ramp up operations in advance of the elections. (Note: A law proposing the establishment of a permanent CNE is also currently being reviewed by Parliamentary Committee A, but is considered a long shot.) Parties are preparing, but many may have unrealistic expectations -------------- -------------- ¶6. The IRI representative reported that their political party training is in high demand, with all registered parties participating. This includes Fretilin, which has in the past declined to participate in such programs. (Note: Fretilin Mudansa, the party's reform faction, has requested to participate in IRI programs training, but IRI indicated that they can only work with the designates of the official leadership of registered parties.) The IRI representative noted that their focus is of necessity on "Campaigning 101" training as the level of capacity in this area is limited across the board. Most opposition parties are particularly weak in their campaigning skills and resources, with many having virtually no capacity outside of Dili. ¶7. All briefing participants expressed their worry that the campaign environment will be tense and combative and that unrealistic expectations on the part of many parties could contribute to rejection of the outcomes as illegitimate. The IRI representative cited as an example that smaller opposition parties have expressed unconcern regarding the possibility that a threshold as high as five percent may govern the parliamentary elections. Many of these parties are considered unlikely to reach even that threshold. Participants all noted need for an agreed code of conduct among the political parties, with a credible enforcement mechanism, and reported that they are looking at how they can support its developments. In addition, they will be looking at options for parties to gain a better understanding of their popularity to both support more effective campaigning and to prepare for likely election outcomes. (Note: This concern is also relevant to Fretilin which may well have a much lower outcome then they seem to currently expect.) ¶8. Comment: Ensuring not only that elections are legitimate, but that they are accepted as such by all regardless of outcome will be the largest overall challenge. To this end, the key issues to watch are a) ensuring a level playing field and fair play during the lead up to the election, including but not exclusive to the official campaign period, and b) ensuring a political environment conducive to both peaceful elections and wide acceptance of the results by both winners and losers. There is a significant risk that an environment of mistrust, especially if accompanied by the country's polarization on East-West lines, will produce an outcome that the losers will reject regardless of how well the elections are run. End comment. GRAY