UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000424

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPKO PHUM ASEC AU TTPGOV CASC PREF KJUS TT
SUBJECT: REDUCED VIOLENCE IN DILI, BUT SERIOUS PROBLEMS REMAIN

REF: DILI 404

DILI 00000424 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) Summary: During the last week there was a significant
reduction in the gang-related incidents reported in reftel, but
late last week there were several serious incidents and the
potential for renewed gang activity remains. Although some of
the factors contributing to the resumption of gang violence seen
in early August were one-time occurrences, more important
underlying factors have not been eliminated or even effectively
reduced. These include the continued displacement of much of
the population of Dili, the complicated community tensions that
prevent their easy return, and the phenomenon of youth gangs
with a seemingly endless appetite for confrontation. Several
key developments appear to have reined in the gang disturbances:
community-level reconciliation and negotiation efforts have
reduced conflict in some areas; the President and others have
engaged the primary gang leaders and convinced them to suspend
the violence for the time being; and international police have
adjusted their tactics to respond more effectively to gang
incidents. However, the current reprieve is fragile and a
number of potential flash points, such as developments in
high-profile legal cases, could lead to a resumption of these
kinds of disturbances. End summary.

Significant reduction in gang activity, but problems continue
-------------- --------------


2. (U) There was a significant reduction of gang activity in
Dili over the last week, until late last week when there were
several large-scale incidents. At a security briefing early in
the week, international forces reported that the weekend was the
calmest they had seen in some time. The most recent situation
report from the Australian Federal Police noted that "things
have remained relatively calm over the last twenty four hours."
Nonetheless, flare-ups continued during the week, particularly

in several chronic problem neighborhoods. Specific
neighborhoods identified as continually problematic include:
Comoro, Bebonuk, Quintal Boot, Fatu Hada and Surik Mas. In
addition, while districts remain stable for the most part, there
was a clash between fringe group Colimau 2000 and a martial arts
group, Persaudaraan Setia Hati Terate (PSHT, also colloquially
known as SH or "seti hati") in Ermera district over the weekend
that reportedly resulted in up to four deaths. This incident is
still being confirmed. This followed a clash between the same
two groups in Covalima district about two weeks ago that
resulted in one death.


3. (U) Last Thursday afternoon, August 17, the security
situation appeared to take a turn for the worse when a large
group of young men waged a sustained stone-throwing attack on
the internally displaced persons (IDP) camp adjacent to Obrigado
Barracks, the headquarters of the United Nations Office in
Timor-Leste (UNOTIL). UNOTIL personnel called the Joint Task
Force (JTF) which sent a number of military and police personnel
to the camp. The attackers fled and the international forces
remained for several hours. However, Friday morning at about 5
a.m. there was another attack on the camp, involving not only
stones but also several plastic bottles filled with gasoline.
Finally, there were numerous reports Thursday night of
disturbances in the vicinity of an IDP camp adjacent to the Dili
port. These incidents reportedly involved youths from within
the camp throwing rocks at passing cars and pedestrians.
Similar events have been reported at this camp for several
weeks, but they had reportedly subsided until these most recent
incidents.


4. (U) According to Special Representative of the UN Secretary
General (SRSG) Sukehiro Hasegawa, about 2000 of the 7000
Obrigado camp residents left as a result of the attacks on the
camp. Some of these reportedly left even before the first
attack, apparently because they had advance warning. A Catholic
nun who runs one of the largest IDP camps in Dili told
Ambassador on Friday (August 18) that her seriously overcrowded
camp had received many new families last night, most of whom had
moved from the Obrigado camp or the camp adjacent to the port.

DILI 00000424 002.2 OF 003




5. (U) Despite these incidents, international police continue to
describe the security situation in Dili as stable on the whole.
In conversations with Emboff on Friday, Australian Federal
Police (AFP) and Portuguese Republican National Guard (GNR)
sources emphasized that this does not translate to an absence of
incidents, but rather to a reduced overall number. Moreover,
they note that the incidents in the last day or so do not
exhibit the coordination seen earlier this month when multiple
incidents occurred nearly simultaneously.

Increased understanding of underlying causes
--------------


6. (SBU) The early August resumption of high levels of gang
violence in Dili prompted a renewed effort on the part of
international security forces and others to examine and address
the underlying causes both of this recent spike and of the
long-term phenomenon of gang violence. Our current analysis
highlights the following factors as being particularly important:

-- The early August spike in violence corresponded with the
initial period during which international police took on full
responsibility for Dili security operations, including the key
night-time hours previously covered by the military.
International police sources believe that the transition was
seen as a window of opportunity and that some gangs wanted to
test the readiness of the international police. Tactics used
included staging a large number of disturbances in one area to
draw police resources away from another area, as well as drawing
patrol cars into a neighborhood and then surrounding and
targeting the police.

-- The arrest of dissident military police leader Major Alfredo
Reinado continued to be a motivating factor among the explicitly
Loromonu (western) oriented gangs. As reported in septels,
Reinado has gained a certain status as a "hero of the West".
His detention while a range of other actors remain free is
viewed by many Timorese, including some youth gang elements, as
fundamentally one-sided and unjust.

-- Contacts working in the IDP camps, as well as international
police, report that a significant number of people from the East
(Lorosa'e), including gang elements, have returned to Dili in
recent weeks. Many have taken up residence in existing IDP
camps, including but not limited to the camp in the port area,
and a large number of the recent incidents were initiated by
gangs operating out of the camps.

-- The youth gang phenomenon is one that many Embassy sources
argue should be receiving greater attention. A significant
proportion of male youth (generally defined as anyone who grew
up under the 1975-1999 Indonesian occupation) are affiliated
with some kind of gang organization, whether one of the many
martial arts groups or other groups, typically organized around
a charismatic leader. Many of the active gang members are
unemployed and easily mobilized toward gang pursuits. Some of
the gangs are explicitly Loromonu or Lorosa'e (western or
eastern) but many, especially the more established ones, have no
such orientation. While the gangs are not a new phenomenon, the
current situation has created more space within which they can
operate, jockey for influence, and settle old scores. Sources
who have followed the gang phenomenon closely observe that their
recent activities were highly organized and that the key leaders
retain the ability both to initiate and to suspend gang
violence.

-- Although the overall improvement in security since June is
significant, many underlying issues remain substantially
unaddressed. These include the continued displacement of over
half of the city's population; the widespread existence of
conflicting land and property claims that have emerged as a
major factor in community conflict; uncertainty about what
security arrangements will be in place at the local level; a

DILI 00000424 003.2 OF 003


widespread perception that perpetrators of violence are able to
act with impunity as many are released within hours or days if
arrested at all; and the continued lack of economic opportunity
that is believed to make gang membership so attractive to many
young men.

Explaining the reduction in violence
--------------


7. (SBU) Explanations of the tapering off of gang activity that
we have seen over the last week vary, but the most significant
developments appear to be as follows:

-- An increase in community reconciliation efforts in a number
of neighborhoods in Dili has had some impact on reducing
tensions. This has included reconciliation meetings initiated
by government officials, by civil society organizations, and in
some cases by community members themselves. In one area of
Comoro, an Embassy staff member described ongoing discussions
involving village chiefs and local youth coordinators that have
resulted in a significant reduction of tensions. The Ministries
of Labor and Interior have also initiated a series of dialogues
at the aldeia (hamlet) level. In a conversation with Emboff,
the Malaysian police commander noted his pleasant surprise that
these meetings, while seemingly not substantive, were followed
by significantly reduced incidents.

-- Initiatives to engage the leaders of gangs involved in the
violence appear to have, at least in the short term, convinced
many to suspend their campaigns of intimidation and violence.
This has included efforts by some of the international forces to
open lines of communication with gang leaders. However, perhaps
most influential have been efforts made by President Xanana
Gusmao to engage the leaders, who see themselves not just as
gang leaders but as leaders of a broader youth demographic that
has been marginalized both politically and economically. Gusmao
has met with a number of the "youth leaders" over the past
weeks. After a meeting last week between the President and a
number of these "leaders" one of those most prominently
associated with recent incidents, Joao Becora, appeared on
television to appeal to the youth to unite and resist being
politically motivated to commit violence.

-- International police have adjusted their tactics to respond
more effectively to the gang disturbances. For example,
following an incident in which a patrol car was surrounded and
had to be extracted, incident response teams now generally
comprise at least two vehicles and six to eight officers,
including one or two with long-barreled weapons. In addition,
military patrols have been brought back into use as a deterrent
measure in certain hotspot areas, especially IDP camps that have
been the site of repeated incidents. However, contacts in the
international forces admit that their actions are only getting
at the surface issues. Our sources note that adjusted police
tactics do not explain the reduced violence. In fact, we
continue to see evidence that the Dili gangs do not view the
presence of international forces, whether military or police, as
a serious deterrent to their activities. Rather, it is a
reality to which they adjust their tactics.


8. (SBU) Comment: While there is optimism that community
dialogues and engagement of youth gang leaders can continue to
contribute to reduced violence, the organizations and
capabilities remain in place. Both leaders and members have
demonstrated that they are generally short-sighted in their
planning and can be easily set off by perceived injustices.
There are a number of outstanding issues that have the potential
to spark renewed large-scale gang activity. This is
particularly true of possible developments in high-profile legal
cases, including the cases against former Prime Minister Mari
Alkatiri, former Minister of Interior Rogerio Lobato, and
dissident armed forces Major Alfredo Reinado. End comment.
REES