EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR 27 JULY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000334 SIPDIS NOFORN DEPT FOR EAP/MTS NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/27/2016 TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC KCRM AEMR AS TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR 27 JULY REF: (A) DILI 316; (B) DILI 333 DILI 00000334 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, EXEC, State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (U) Summary: --- President Gusmao will lead interim government for 30 days; --- Alkatiri resisting summons to defend against criminal charges; --- Pro-Alkatiri demonstrators may enter Dili tomorrow; --- Senior Australian official may visit Dili on Thursday; --- Security update. End Summary. President Gusmao will lead interim government for 30 days -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) President Xanana Gusmao convened a Council of State (COS) meeting today. The eleven-member advisory body concluded its meeting at 2:30 p.m. with a recommendation that the state of crisis Gusmao had declared on 28 May be extended another 30 days. Under the continued state of crisis, Gusmao will preside over a caretaker government and will ask specific people to take on ministerial functions without the title of minister. All ministers in former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri's cabinet were automatically dismissed in accordance with article 112 of the Constitution when the President accepted Alkatiri's resignation yesterday. The Council of State did not discuss who would fill these roles, but after the Council of State meeting the President met with several pro-Gusmao and/or "moderate" ministers from the Alkatiri Government, including ex-Foreign/Defense Minister Jose Ramos-Horta, ex-Labor Minister Arsenio Bano, and ex-Interior Minister Alcino Barris. ¶3. (SBU) The Council of State called on the Fretilin party, which still holds a majority in Parliament, to hold an extraordinary party congress as soon as possible in order to elect party leaders by secret ballot as required by law. Gusmao has made clear that since the mid-May Fretilin congress acted illegally by electing party officials by a public show of hands rather than by secret ballot, there is currently no legitimate Fretilin leadership with whom to negotiate on the formation of a government. See Ref A. Gusmao initially wanted the Fretilin congress to occur within one week, but he agreed to the one month timeframe after Fretilin President Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres said it might take that long to organize the gathering. ¶4. (SBU) One Council of State member told Poloff that several COS members had pressed Gusmao to dissolve Parliament. Gusmao reportedly resisted the suggestion, preferring to focus on the Fretilin extraordinary congress. ¶5. (SBU) Although the President is not expected to appoint an interim Prime Minister to head the transitional government, he may appoint a "principal administrator" who would perform the same functions. Possible candidates for this position include Ramos-Horta, Bano, and ex-Minister of Health Rui de Araujo. ¶6. (U) This evening the President's office issued a press release stating that the President would govern under the declaration of crisis until July 30 and would use the time to try to form a new government without dissolving Parliament. The statement said that if it should prove impossible to do this, the President would consider dissolving Parliament. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: President Gusmao's course of action, although it will result in a longer timetable for formation of a new government than some of the other options open to him, seems designed to comply strictly with the applicable provisions of the Constitution. The Constitution requires that a Prime Minister be designated by the party or coalition that holds a parliamentary majority and appointed by the President. Because Fretilin holds a parliamentary majority, the President chose to wait for the party to elect its leaders in accordance with law so that they can propose a new Prime Minister. If this does not happen within 30 days, or if the new leadership does not propose a candidate whom the President deems acceptable, he could DILI 00000334 002.2 OF 003 dissolve parliament under the constitutional provision giving him authority to do so in a "grave institutional crisis making it impossible to form a government." See Ref B. The President may also be counting on the likelihood that his interim government will become far more popular in the next 30 days than the Alkatiri government ever was. This might put pressure on Fretilin to propose as Prime Minister a leader from within the interim government, such as Ramos-Horta, Bano, Dr. Araujo, or Ambassador Jose Luis Guterres, rather than a party insider. End Comment. Alkatiri resisting summons to defend against criminal charges -------------- ¶8. (C) Ambassador spoke today with Prosecutor General Longuinhos Monteiro, who confirmed reports that his office had issued a summons to ex-Prime Minister Alkatiri. The summons requires Alkatiri to submit to an interview this Friday, June 30, in connection with charges that he authorized the illegal distribution of arms to Fretilin militants who say they were instructed to kill certain government opponents. Ex-Minister of the Interior Rogerio Lobato has reportedly signed a sworn statement to prosecutors that he did distribute the arms and that Alkatiri endorsed and authorized the distribution, although Lobato denies that he told the armed group to kill anyone. Prosecutor General Monteiro says he has received dozens of phone calls and text messages from Alkatiri, some abusive and threatening, demanding that the summons be withdrawn. Alkatiri reportedly asserts that the charges are lies, that he is afraid he will be harmed if he goes to the Prosecutor's office, and that he enjoys immunity from prosecution as a newly-minted Fretilin Member of Parliament --- a status Alkatiri claims to have acquired automatically since he was an elected member of the pre-independence Constituent Assembly, which became the Parliament on May 20, 2002, the same day he became Prime Minister. (Note: East Timor's Constitution does provide immunity from prosecution to Members of Parliament, but only for words and acts done "in their official capacity".) Monteiro has reported the threatening messages to President Gusmao and to the Australian-led Joint Task Force (JTF),which is providing Monteiro with personal protection. Pro-Alkatiri demonstrators may enter Dili tomorrow -------------- ¶8. (U) The demonstration against former Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri that had grown to several thousand people yesterday began to dissipate today. Emboffs estimate there are presently less than 1,000 of these demonstrators near the Government Palace, although others may remain elsewhere in Dili. The demonstrators continue to be peaceful. Meanwhile, at least 40 trucks full of pro-Alkatiri demonstrators waited all afternoon approximately 20 minutes out of Dili. The group began proceeding toward the city this afternoon, but stopped about ten kilometers outside the city when Alkatiri and President of Parliament Lu'Olo came to address the group. The two senior Fretilin leaders requested that the convoy return to the village of Metinaro approximately 30 minutes outside Dili, spend the night there, and wait for instructions tomorrow. Alkatiri and Lu'Olo reportedly delivered inflammatory speeches, with Alkatiri saying he had been "wrongfully deposed by corrupt and unjust people" and Lu'Olo suggesting that Fretilin had fought a guerrilla war from the mountains for 24 years and could do so again. Meanwhile Major Tara, one of the key organizers of the ongoing anti-Alkatiri demonstrations, met with President Gusmao this afternoon and told reporters that the President had asked him to begin moving the mostly "Loromonu" (western) demonstrators out of Dili to avoid any clashes with the pro-Alkatiri group from the east. The Embassy sent a warden message reminding American citizens to avoid crowds and avoid the Government Palace area. (Comment: Alkatiri and Lu'Olo may have agreed to keep their demonstrators out of Dili for another day in exchange for Gusmao's commitment to try to persuade the anti-Alkatiri demonstrators to leave so that the two groups DILI 00000334 003.2 OF 003 would not be in Dili at the same time.) Senior Australian official may visit Dili on Thursday -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶9. (S/NF) Australian EmbOff hinted today that one of Australia's top government officials will likely visit East Timor on Thursday of this week. Embassy speculates that it is likely to be Prime Minister Howard who will visit, as he has not yet made a trip to Dili since the arrival of Australian troops. Security update -------------- ¶10. (U) The Australian Federal Police (AFP) reported confiscating three pistols from police (PNTL) officers during the night. The police officers reportedly claimed that they had thought they had to give up only their long guns, not their pistols. REES