EAST TIMOR SITREP: PRIME MINISTER PERSUADES PRESIDENT TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000322 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/21/2016 TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PREF EAID AS TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP: PRIME MINISTER PERSUADES PRESIDENT TO DELAY DISMISSAL REF: A) DILI 316; B) DILI 320 DILI 00000322 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (U) Summary: --- Prime Minister persuades President to delay dismissal --- Anti-Alkatiri demonstration continued; --- Lobato's house surrounded; --- Security environment in Dili. End Summary. Prime Minister persuades President to delay dismissal -------------- (S) According to a preliminary report from the just-concluded Council of State meeting, Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri asked for "a day or two" to consult with members of the Fretilin Party about whether he should comply with the President's demand that he resign as Prime Minister, and the President agreed. (SBU) The Council of State meeting began at 10 a.m. this morning. President Xanana Gusmao is constitutionally required to consult the Council before dismissing Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri. See Reftels. The Council members heard from Vicente Rai Los, the ruling party (Fretilin) loyalist who said his group was armed by Alkatiri and ex-Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato to act against Fretilin opponents, to help bolster the President's case that credible evidence serious criminal conduct makes it inappropriate for Alkatiri to continue in office. President Gusmao also reportedly presented videotaped evidence. The meeting ended at about 5 p.m. (S) According to two sources who were present at the meeting, the discussion consisted primarily of President Gusmao and several Council members urging the Prime Minister to resign, with the Prime Minister repeatedly responding that he would not resign. The Council discussion apparently broke down along party lines, with five or six members (including the Prime Minister himself) saying the Prime Minister should remain in office while four or five members (in addition to the President, who presides at the Council meetings but is not a member) saying the Prime Minister should resign. (Two Council members who are believed to be anti-Alkatiri were absent from the meeting.) Finally the President stood up and said, "This has been going on for three months. I can no longer face the people if we cannot solve the problem. So if you won't resign, then I will." Alkatiri reportedly responded, "Maybe the country needs you [President Gusmao] more than it means me. Give me a day or so to talk to my party." The President agreed. The meeting then ended. (S) Comment: The two sources who were at the meeting, who are not pro-Alkatiri, believe that the President has succeeded in making Alkatiri think seriously about resigning, and that this will be the likely outcome of his talks with Fretilin leaders. It is possible that Alkatiri will come back to the President with some sort of compromise, such as that he would resign only if the President agreed to appoint an Alkatiri loyalist as the successor Prime Minister. On the other hand, this could simply be a successful attempt by the Prime Minister to secure a delay in order to strengthen his position. "A day or so" could easily stretch out into several days. (S) Comment continued: Embassy has not yet learned why the discussion was apparently limited to whether the Prime Minister should resign, rather than whether the President should dismiss him. The President stated quite clearly 24 hours ago that he would dismiss the Prime Minister at the conclusion of the Council meeting. See Ref B. Although it appears that a narrow plurality within the Council of State may have supported the Prime Minister's position, the President pointed out last night that the Council is a purely consultative body: he is not constitutionally obliged to abide by the majority decision of Council members, or even to take a vote, only to hear the views DILI 00000322 002.2 OF 002 of Council members before taking action. See Reftels. It is also unclear whether the President would actually have resigned if the Prime Minister had not responded as he did. Perhaps the President's surprise announcement was a ploy calculated to get Alkatiri to change his mind, or perhaps it was a sincere manifestation of despair. Embassy will report further on these questions, as well as on the progress of the Prime Minister's discussions with Fretilin leaders. Anti-Alkatiri demonstration continued -------------- -------------- (U) The peaceful anti-Alkatiri demonstration that began yesterday continued today. The demonstrators numbered in the hundreds, and opposition leaders told Emboffs that many more would arrive tomorrow, from the western districts and possibly also from the eastern districts. The international Joint Task Force (JTF) continued to provide security in the vicinity. Lobato's house surrounded -------------- (S/NF) Several Joint Task Force (JTF) personnel have taken up positions surrounding the neighborhood of Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri and ex-Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato, reportedly to enforce the arrest warrant issued yesterday by the Prosecutor General based on charges Lobato had distributed arms to ruling party (Fretilin) loyalists. Embassy was informed earlier today that the international forces are uncertain whether to detain Lobato in a jail cell or to keep him under house arrest. A later report suggests that the Government of Australia may have taken a decision not to execute the Lobato arrest warrant on the ground that it would appear to put Australia on one side of a political dispute. (Incidentally, it appears that Lobato is now residing in the Government-owned residence he occupied as Minister of the Interior, notwithstanding his dismissal almost three weeks ago.) Security environment -------------- (U) The Australian Federal Police (AFP) reported two arrests last night, one for possession of a handgun and one for criminal mischief. AFP also reported two arsons. A group of armed men fired shots into the air near the city water tower. The group had dispersed by the time AFP arrived on the scene. In the past 24 hours AFP has confiscated two machetes, three long knives, 17 darts, and one baton. (SBU) The Mobile Security Detachment (MSD) team departed today. Embassy Dili has eight American staff plus the Regional Security Officer. There are approximately 55 private American citizens in East Timor. The Embassy continues to advise Americans about the security situation and there is no indication that Americans have been targeted or threatened. Areas frequented by Americans continue to be controlled by JTF and Portuguese special police (GNR) personnel. REES