EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 20, 2006

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000320 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW USUN FOR GORDON OLSON AND RICHARD MCCURRY USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/20/2016 TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PREF EAID AS TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 20, 2006 REF: DILI 296; B) DILI 303; CB) DILI 316 DILI 00000320 001.2 OF 004 CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: --- President still plans to dismiss Prime Minister after Council of State meeting tomorrow; --- Arrest warrant issued for Lobato; --- Ramos-Horta in Baucau, plans to head further East tomorrow; --- Anti-Alkatiri demonstration begins, may grow in coming days; --- Weapons confiscated as ADF continuing inventory work; --- Murder in Suai may be connected to armed group's publicity; --- IDPs now estimated at 145,000, mostly outside Dili; --- Security environment in Dili and districts. End Summary. President still plans to dismiss Prime Minister after Council of State meeting tomorrow -------------- ¶2. (C) President Xanana Gusmao told Ambassador Rees that he sent a letter to Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri this morning requesting his immediate resignation. The letter was accompanied by a videotape containing what the President described as evidence against Alkatiri in the Railos case. See Refs A & B. The President asked Alkatiri to tell him by 5 p.m. whether or not he would resign, but as of 7:30 p.m. he had received no answer. The President has called a meeting of the Council of State, with which he is required to consult prior to dismissing the Prime Minister, for tomorrow morning. The agenda will include the accusations against the Alkatiri and former Minister of Interior Rogerio Lobato for distributing arms to Fretilin party militants, in some cases allegedly with instructions to kill government opponents, and what steps the President should take in light of these allegations. ¶3. (C) The President said he had met this morning with General Taur Matan Ruak, commander of the armed forces (FDTL),who enthusiastically supported the planned dismissal of Alkatiri. Later in the day Emboff saw Matan Ruak in Baucau and confirmed that the General appears to be fully behind the President's plan. ¶4. (S/NF) The President said he also met today with Brigadier General Mick Slater, the Australian commander of the international Joint Task Force (JTF) in East Timor, to brief him on his plans. The President said General Slater raised no objections. According to a source at the Australian Embassy, the charge d'affaires had been instructed to request a meeting with President Gusmao, but subsequently received an instruction to cancel the meeting request. The Australian source implied that Australia's Foreign Ministry may initially have intended to dissuade the President from his proposed course of action, but that ultimately --- perhaps after interagency discussions --- the Government of Australia has decided neither to encourage nor to discourage the President. ¶5. (U) Prime Minister Alkatiri issued a press release today denying allegations that he had armed the Fretilin activists. The Prime Minister claimed he had communicated occasionally with Railos only to maintain an open line of communication and prevent misunderstanding. "I myself have called for independent, international investigations of all these incidents and allegations," Alkatiri said. Arrest warrant issued for Lobato -------------- ¶6. (U) Late this afternoon, the East Timor Prosecutor General's office issued a warrant for the arrest of former Minister of Interior, Rogerio Lobato. According to a UN press release "Lobato was accused of distributing arms to Vicente da Conceicao, known as 'Rai Los' with the intent to 'alter the public order and the democratic rule of law.' The warrant was signed by UN-funded international prosecutors working for the Prosecutor General. DILI 00000320 002.2 OF 004 ¶7. (C) Australian Federal Police (AFP) sources report that they are currently working out their next steps in response to the warrant. Operational details are expected to be worked out this evening. At time of writing, they did not yet know whether the arrest operation would be carried out by the ADF, AFP, or both. In addition, an AFP source reported that they are concurrently trying to ascertain Lobato's whereabouts. ¶8. (C) The warrant follows earlier reports that Lobato attempted to depart Dili today for Darwin but an order was issued by unspecified Timorese authorities forbidding his departure. Australian authorities had reportedly barred his entry to Australia on immigration grounds allowing them to deny admission to persons who might be involved in improper activities. Ramos-Horta in Baucau, plans to head further East tomorrow -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Ramos-Horta today departed for Baucau, accompanied by an entourage including General Matan Ruak. According to Embassy sources, the main reason for the timing of this trip may be so that he can ensure that the eastern districts remain calm and that no destabilizing measures are taken if the Prime Minister resigns or is forced out by the President in the next 24 to 48 hours. In addition, he is likely to be following up on credible reports that a group of Fretilin supporters has been armed in Lospalos district with a mission similar to that of the Railos group in Liquica. A reliable Embassy source reported that the District Administrator of Lospalos may have orchestrated the delivery of 14 long barreled weapons last week at the same time as he was organizing the transport of a number of people who were living in IDP camps in Dili back to their home districts in the East. ¶10. (SBU) Ramos-Horta is also accompanied by several internationals including Poloff and Defense Representative from Amembassy Dili. Embassy will report further details of Ramos-Horta's activities in the eastern districts as they become available. Anti-Alkatiri demonstration begins, may grow in coming days -------------- ¶11. (U) A small anti-Alkatiri demonstration was held today in front of the Government Palace. Estimates of attendance ranged as high as several hundred, but through most of the day were observed to be around 100, apparently all from within Dili. The peaceful demonstration was accompanied by a dozen fully equipped Australian military police. Australian Defense Force (ADF) ground forces also increased their presence in the vicinity and the situation remained calm. Local sources report that the demonstration will continue through Thursday with more demonstrators expected to arrive during the coming two days from the districts. The deputy district police commander in Bobonaro district reported that organizers in the district were mobilizing demonstrators to travel to Dili during the next day or two. The police commander stated that he expects the numbers to be higher than the estimated 1,500 who traveled to Dili for the June 6 demonstrations. See Ref A. Weapons confiscated as ADF continuing inventory work -------------- ¶12. (U) On Sunday (June 21),the Australian Federal Police (AFP) raided the residence of Abilio Mesquita , the police (PNTL) Deputy District Commander for Liquica who has also been implicated in gang violence in Dili. They confiscated six Steyr machine guns, one pump-action shotgun, and several PNTL and FDTL uniforms. AFP detained four persons for questioning in connection with this incident. Mesquita was arrested later the same day. Also this weekend, AFP relieved ex-Minister Lobato's two personal bodyguards of their FN2000 machine guns as Lobato left Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri's Dili home to go to the bank. DILI 00000320 003.2 OF 004 There was conflicting information over the weekend regarding whether the disarmament to which Major Alfredo Reinado had agreed to had in fact gone forward. ADF sources today confirmed that he did hand over a substantial number of weapons, but not all that he and his group are believed to have. ¶13. (C) ADF sources report that the final report on their inventory of FDTL weapons will be ready shortly. They note some important discrepancies. In almost all categories, more weapons were logged than were originally reported on the inventory lists. There were also 47 weapons confirmed missing from earlier inventory list, as well as anomalous serial numbers that could point to the existence of hundreds more unaccounted-for military weapons. The planned inventory of PNTL weapons has been postponed but is expected to begin this week. Murder in Suai may be connected to armed group's publicity -------------- ¶14. (U) A brutal murder that took place in Suai last week is suspected by some to have been in revenge against the armed group in Liquica that recently went public with claims that they had been armed by ex-Minister Lobato, with the Prime Minister's authorization and support. Mateus dos Santos Ferreira (a.k.a. Mau Rakat),a member of the Liquica group heading by "Railos", or perhaps of a separate group that was also reportedly armed by Lobato, told Emboffs yesterday that the murder victim was his nephew. He said he believed the murder was perpetrated by elements, possibly within the Suai PNTL Office, for the purpose of intimidating him from coming forward with Railos. A police officer in Suai had told Embassy staff that the murder had no political motivations but rather resulted from a personal conflict between the victim and the suspect. IDPs now estimated at 145,000, mostly outside Dili -------------- -------------- ¶15. (U) A UN press release today reported that the total number of internally displaced people (IDPs) throughout East Timor has been recalculated to be around 145,000. Contrary to earlier estimates, the majority of these are now reported to be in the districts outside Dili. According to figures collected by local authorities, 78,000 IDPs are estimated to be outside of Dili, while 67,000 are estimated to be in the various IDP camps within Dili. The press release noted that these new numbers do not necessarily reflect new developments. Many people fled Dili weeks ago but information from remote areas is only now reaching the Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance Group. IDPs continue gradually to leave Dili for the districts. While we heard earlier that these displacements were largely toward the east, we have recently learned that Dili residents from the western part of East Timor are also beginning to move back to their home districts. ¶16. (U) The UN Humanitarian Coordinator stated his concerns that there may soon be food shortages in the districts. In addition, it is clear that the combination of IDP numbers and decreased economic activity is causing increased hardship throughout the country. USAID's private sector development project has been monitoring economic activity in five of the districts since April. The project reports significant price increases for fuel, transport, and basic foods. Basic food prices have risen between 5 and 50 percent. Fuel prices are up 20 to 100 percent. Transport costs have reportedly doubled. Security environment in Dili and districts -------------- -- ¶17. (U) Dili is returning to normal activity very slowly. This week, some school children can be seen returning to their classes. The Australian Federal Police (AFP) reported no house burnings in Dili over the weekend, but local contacts reported a few arsons each night. Local staff reported that six residences DILI 00000320 004.2 OF 004 were burned Sunday night in fighting between rival gangs. Also, a crowd gathered near Prime Minister Alkatiri's house Sunday evening threatening to burn the house. The crowd dispersed quickly once the AFP arrived. On Saturday evening several gunshots were reported near the stadium. AFP arrested two people Saturday, one for theft and one for possession of three spears and a machete. In other incidents AFP confiscated a smoke grenade, a baton, and an axe. ¶18. (U) An Embassy staff member visiting his family in the western town of Suai, Cova Lima district, reported that the district is generally calm but that people are very anxious. PNTL members are carrying long guns and occasionally firing warning shots into the air, making locals in Suai more nervous. After traveling through several western districts, our U.S. Defense Representative (USDR) reported that PNTL is functioning normally outside of Dili. Some Dili residents have moved, at least temporarily, to the districts. They appear to mostly be staying with friends and family in the districts as opposed to living in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. Many local radio stations are not broadcasting due to lack of generator fuel. Many local residents complained of insufficient information regarding events in Dili. Local churches appeared to be a common place for residents to gather and share information. USDR reported locals received him warmly and there was no evidence of threats to Americans or other foreigners. REES