EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 13, 2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000306 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, DS, CA PACOM FOR POLAD AND JOC USUN FOR GORDON OLSON AND RICHARD MCCURRY E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/13/2016 TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PO MY TT AS SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 13, 2006 REF: A) DILI 300; B) DILI 303; C) DILI 304; D) STATE 95226 DILI 00000306 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Pro-Alkatiri armed group reported in Los Palos; Ramos-Horta casts doubt on whether UN investigation would include "Fretilin Security Forces"; Fretilin National Planning Committee may meet to discuss current crisis; Opposition MPs walk out of Parliament in protest of a Fretilin resolution; GOET announces wage increases for civil service and increased expenditures; Security environment. End Summary. Pro-Alkatiri armed group reported in Los Palos -------------- ¶2. (C) Credible reports from Los Palos, the largest town in the easternmost part of East Timor, indicate that a group of about 15 men armed with rifles has been patrolling the streets. These reports say the group consists of Fretilin militants who support Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri. Some reports suggest the group may be trying to discourage participation in a Dili demonstration reportedly being organized by anti-Alkatiri activists from the West who are actively seeking support from like-minded eastern residents. See Ref A. According to a source in the office of President Xanana Gusmao, leaders of the armed forces (FDTL) have confirmed the presence of this group in Los Palos and have volunteered to go to Los Palos ostensibly to control the group. The President has reportedly recommended to Foreign/Defense Minister Jose Ramos-Horta, however, that an appeal instead be made to the Australian-led international forces. Ramos-Horta casts doubt on whether UN investigation would include "Fretilin Security Forces" -------------- ¶3. (C) In his speech yesterday to Parliament, and during various other public statements and encounters with foreign diplomats, Foreign/Defense Minister Ramos-Horta has stated that the UN Special Commission of Inquiry requested by the Government of East Timor (GOET) was intended to investigate, among other things, accusations that Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri had given orders to arm Fretilin militants to kill certain critics of the Government. See Ref B. During an interview with ABC Australia's "Lateline" program, however, Ramos-Horta stated that "on these particular allegations, President Xanana himself is the first authority that has to look at them and if he finds grounds for further investigation, then he will order further investigation." This statement, which appears to conflict with Ramos-Horta's other statements on the question, may have been intended merely to show deference to the President, or perhaps to avoid the possibility that the UN investigation, which could take months, might have the unintended consequence of delaying actions that might otherwise be possible within East Timor's constitutional framework. On the other hand, the remarks could mean that Ramos-Horta has encountered resistance from within GOET to his initial suggestion that the allegations against Alkatiri would be within the scope of the proposed investigation. ¶4. (C) Comment: It is tempting to suggest that the upcoming UNSC resolution extending the United Nations Office in Timor-Leste (UNOTIL) for another 30 days include language that explicitly authorizes an investigation into the allegations that Alkatiri and/or then-Minister of the Interior Rogerio Lobato armed the "Fretilin Security Force" and ordered its members to kill people. The more prudent course, however, might be to DILI 00000306 002.2 OF 003 settle for language such as that set forth in Ref D, authorizing an investigation into the violence committed on April 28-29 and May 23-25 (or perhaps just "since April 28, 2006.") Because the alleged "Fretilin Security Force" headed by the man who calls himself Railos claims to have been involved in the gun battle at Tasitolu and Tibar on May 23 --- indeed, it appears that four of the group's members were killed in the battle --- an investigation into these killings would clearly include inquiry into what the group was doing in Tasitolu. Attempting to include an explicit reference to this question in the UNSC resolution might appear to be a gratuitous attempt to embarrass the Prime Minister and might generate objections from one or more Security Council members. Embassy respectfully suggests, however, that the USG consider communicating to the appropriate UN personnel our understanding that a mandate to investigate the violence that occurred on the specified dates does include inquiry into who, if anyone, armed the various participants and/or ordered them to participate in the events in question. End comment. Fretilin National Planning Committee set to meet to discuss current crisis -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) During a meeting today with EmbOffs, Filomeno Cruz, a member of the Fretilin Central Committee (CCF) and of the newly-established Fretilin National Planning Committee (CNP), said he is concerned about recently revealed allegations that the Prime Minister authorized the establishment of Fretilin death squads and on the general future of the party and its leadership. (Note: The 15-member CNP, referred to by Alkatiri critics and apparently by some of his supporters as "the Politburo," was established during the recent Fretilin Party Congress to act as an executive authority for the party between bi-annual CCF meetings.) Long a devout Alkatiri supporter, Cruz was clearly shaken by the recent allegations and indicated that frank discussions would need to take place in the near future to discuss these armed groups, which the Prime Minister has privately assured Cruz he did not authorize. In addition to the issue of armed civilians, Cruz indicated that several top Fretilin leaders felt it was necessary for the CCF and the CNP to insist that control over the party's policies be broadened to a wider group, rather than continuing to be the exclusive domain of the Prime Minister. When asked how the issue of secret armed groups should be approached, Cruz suggested that an internal Fretilin investigation should be conducted. (Comment: Despite his assurances that he and other Fretilin members would get to the bottom of these allegations, Cruz also indicated during the conversation that he and other individuals close to the Prime Minister had heard of the Railos group and of another armed group before the information was broadcast by Australian media. So he appears to be disturbed not by the group's existence but by the fact that it has been made public, and/or possibly by details of the group's alleged mandate of which he was previously unaware. End comment.) Opposition MPs walk out of Parliament in protest of a Fretilin resolution -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) Five Fretilin MPs introduced a resolution in Parliament today that purported to call for an end to violence in East Timor, but that upon closer analysis turned out to consist almost exclusively of condemnations of specific acts of violence allegedly committed against Fretilin and its members, and which reportedly suggested that the recent violence has been directed primarily against Fretilin. When opposition party members of Parliament suggested that the resolution be broadened to include some of the numerous well-known instances of violence against non-Fretilin persons and institutions, the sponsors reportedly ignored these suggestions. Almost all the opposition members present then left the chamber, and the resolution was passed by a vote of 43 in favor, one opposed, and two abstentions. The 46 DILI 00000306 003.2 OF 003 members present for the vote, out of a total of 88, were one more than the quorum necessary to conduct Parliamentary business. GOET announces wage increases for civil service and increased expenditures -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) The GOET announced Monday that it plans to raise public sector salaries by up to 20 percent after an increase to the state budget which will also address the need to rebuild the areas of Dili most affected by recent violence. Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta stated that approximately 15,000 civil servants would receive salary raises of between 15 and 20 percent, while a few Government employees in remote areas might see their income increase by as much as 50 percent. This would represent the first increase in public sector wages since independence. Possibly in response to accusations that the Alkatiri government has done little to improve the situation of people in remote areas, a portion of the budget, which was increased from USD 220 million to USD 300 million, would be directed toward providing running water, electricity, and basic sanitation in the districts. Security environment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Australian Defense Force (ADF) reports that last night at 2300 hours three houses burned near the Santana river. At 0300 hours three shots were heard near Comoro market. As during other periods, local residents reported somewhat higher levels of arson, gunshots, and other violence than those included in the ADF report. The ADF also reports recovering two pistols, four pistol magazines, one homemade incendiary, three slingshots, ten darts, and one machete in the past 24 hours. None of these disturbances were targeted toward Americans or other foreigners. REES