EAST TIMOR SITUATION REPORT FOR MAY 30

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000276 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, IO, S/WCI NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY, GORDON OLSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/31/2016 TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR PHUM KPKO CASC TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITUATION REPORT FOR MAY 30 DILI 00000276 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) (1) (S/NOFORN) Summary: DECREASED VIOLENCE, BUT MOB TACTICS CHANGING; POLITICAL AGENDA BEHIND MOB VIOLENCE? ADF FRUSTRATED WITH MDF? COUNCIL OF STATE MEETING CONCLUDES; BISHOP NASCIMENTO JOINS THE CALL FOR ALKATIRI'S RESIGNATION; IAN MARTIN ARRIVES, UN BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON POST-UNOTIL. End summary. DECREASED VIOLENCE, BUT MOB TACTICS CHANGING (2) (SBU) While the overall level of violence was somewhat lower last night than the previous night, it became significantly higher today. It appears that the behavior of the mobs that have become the overriding security concern for city residents may be evolving in response to Australian Defense Forces (ADF) tactics. The Embassy has heard several reports that ADF shows of force are no longer sufficient to deter mob violence. This morning, for example, it took more than two hours for ADF to disperse a large, violent mob after the crowd observed that the ADF would not use deadly force and lacked non-lethal options, such as tear gas. Previously, crowds tended to disperse and flee after ADF arrived on the scene. The image that the ADF is unable to control the violence plays into the hands of those who have advocated a greater role for FDTL in stabilization operations. (3) (SBU) A former USAID employee, who was forced to hide in his home while it was overrun by a hostile crowd looking for him, described the composition and mood of the mob. He said that he recognized most of the people who surrounded and entered his home as neighbors alongside whom he has lived for some time without previous incident. However, today they stated their intent to "clean out the Lorosa'e" (the former USAID employee is from the eastern part of the country while the mob was made up of people of "Loromonu" or western origin). (4) (U) The east - west divide that is an element, and possibly a driving factor, behind the continued mob formation seems to be particularly strong in more crowded, poor and recently established communities. Emboffs have also encountered communities that continue to maintain cohesion with easterners and westerners living side by side without issue. Some of these communities have organized neighborhood watch organizations to protect from opportunistic mob or gang activity. POLITICAL AGENDA BEHIND MOB VIOLENCE? (5) (SBU) Although some observers regard east/west hostilities and opportunistic hooliganism as the sole causes of recent mob violence, others suggest that there is a "third force" at work --- that is, that the mobs may be fighting a proxy war for other actors who have a political agenda and/or who have ostensibly withdrawn from the fighting. In a briefing today for the diplomatic corps, Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta alluded to this possibility, and both Special Representative of the UN Secretary General (SRSG) Sukehiro Hasegawa and ADF joint task SIPDIS force commander Brigadier General Slater appeared to agree. None of the three was explicit about which "third force" they believed to be behind the recent fighting. Pro-Alkatiri sources have suggested that anti-Alkatiri activists might be instigating violence in order to put pressure on the Prime Minister to resign, while other observers suggest that the pro-Alkatiri forces themselves may be seeking to create chaos in order to prove that it was a mistake to bring in the Australian forces and withdraw FDTL from Dili. ADF FRUSTRATED WITH MDF? DILI 00000276 002.2 OF 003 (6) (S/NF) Some Australian Defense Force (ADF) personnel have privately expressed increasing frustration with the Malaysian Defense Force (MDF) efforts on the ground. While MDF has been willing to coordinate with the ADF through participation in the Joint Task Force, it appears to be overly passive in its operations and is having even less success than the ADF at quickly dispersing mobs. Overnight, Emboff witnessed a small Malaysian detachment that appeared to be actively avoiding contact with a nearby mob which had burned one residence and stoned others. Earlier today Emboffs witnessed a Malaysian detachment timidly remove a small roadblock on the road to the airport and then watched the small mob rebuild it while the Malaysian troops were still in the area. COUNCIL OF STATE MEETING CONCLUDES (7) (SBU) Although it was scheduled recommence this morning, the Council of State meeting did not reconvene until approximately 3:00pm and continued until early evening. Reports were that Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri and his allies were unwilling to return to the President's Palace where angry anti-Alkatiri demonstrators had gathered yesterday, so today's session was held at the Palacio de Governo which houses Alkatiri's office and those of other government ministries. Later, it was reported that the Prime Minister spent the morning meeting with Minister for State Administration Anna Pessoa and Minister of Defense Roque Rodrigues. Pessoa and Rodrigues are arguably the two cabinet ministers regarded as most intelligent and most trusted by Alkatiri, and the three may have been drafting suggested changes to a "declaration of crisis" that the President subsequently issued. See septel for further discussion of the Council of State meeting and the declaration of crisis. BISHOP NASCIMENTO JOINS THE CALL FOR ALKATIRI'S RESIGNATION (8) (C) Public pressure for Alkatiri's resignation is widespread and appears to span the east/ west divide. While the Catholic Church has been relatively quiet during the crisis, its views of Alkatiri are well established and Bishop Basilio Nascimento of the Baucau Diocese made a statement today from Portugal urging Alkatiri's resignation. IAN MARTIN ARRIVES, UN BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON POST-UNOTIL (9) (SBU) Ian Martin, the Secretary General's Special Envoy to East Timor, arrived late yesterday afternoon. He met immediately with President Xanana Gusmao and Foreign Minister Ramos Horta and then spent most of today in consultations with UNOTIL personnel. In a late afternoon meeting with Ambassador Rees, Martin focused on whether the current security intervention by Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Portugal should be replaced by a renewal of United Nations peacekeeping forces. Ambassador responded that the United States would consult closely with Australia on this question. Martin also asked about a possible United Nations role in rebuilding the police force and in investigating recent serious crimes including the May 25 attack by FDTL on unarmed police officers who had surrendered under United Nations auspices. (10) (SBU) In recent conversations, UNOTIL personnel have expressed their opinion that developments over the last month have rendered previous discussions and planning for post-UNOTIL null and void and have probably put the UN and East Timor back several years. They see the need for a long-term international security presence, whether it remains primarily an Australian operation or transforms into a new UN peacekeeping mission. They note that to start with, two major state institutions, the police and the military, will need to be fully reassessed and rebuilt. In addition, they note, there may now be a need for the 2007 elections to be a UN operation. (This echoes a suggestion frequently made by Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta, DILI 00000276 003.2 OF 003 although it is likely to be vigorously opposed by Alkatiri if he remains Prime Minister.) Although they continue to emphasize that everything is now "up in the air," these UN personnel are certain that the next mission will be significantly larger in scope than the current one. FOOD SECURITY AN INCREASING CONCERN (11) (U) For both internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the population at large, food security is becoming an increasing concern. USAID director and Emboff today visited several IDP sites and found that the low supply of food is emerging as the most consistent concern among both organizers and inhabitants. A number of IDPs reported that while they were continuing to receive food, they were down to one meal a day over much of the past week. However, the Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance Group is in the process of completing assessments and seeking to return food, water and supply delivery to needed levels. At least two international aid organizations that had pulled their personnel out over the weekend will be returning during the week and resuming their activities in the IDP sites. (12) (SBU) Throughout Dili most markets and stores remain closed, therefore cutting off food access to most Timorese residents. A large number of Embassy employees have reported that are about to run out of food or have already run out. We are currently discussing how to address this in the coming days as we do not expect this situation to be mitigated quickly. The Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance Group reportedly decided last week to extend food distribution to the population at large in addition to IDP sites, but has yet to begin implementing this arrangement. (Note: Internationals continue to have access to food from several more expensive stores that cater to foreign tastes and budgets and are maintaining limited hours and selective entrance policies. End note.) REES