EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 18, 2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000240 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS; USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD; JOINT STAFF FOR J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/18/2016 TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR KDEM TT SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 18, 2006 DILI 00000240 001.2 OF 002 CLASSIFIED BY: Sean Stein, Charge de Affairs, Embassy Dili, State. REASON: 1.4 (b) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. - LIFE IN DILI - FRETILIN CONGRESS DAY 2 - AMERICAN CITIZENS ISSUES - EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE - SECURITY ASSESSMENT LIFE IN DILI ¶1. (U) The city continues to return to normal and there were several reports of additional refugees returning to Dili. One NGO representative commented that her organization is handing out personal hygeine kits as quickly as possible before all of the refugees return home. Transportation was functioning normally; schools and markets were open. Despite a heavy security presence, restaurants in the immediate area around the party congress were open. There were 80 empty seats on outgoing flights. FRETILIN CONGRESS DAY 2 -- THE GAMES CONTINUE ¶2. (C) The Fretilin Congress reexamined the issue of secret balloting in the context of the party constitution. Despite heated debate on both sides, the Congress voted to leave yesterday's decision to abolish secret balloting for party leadership elections unchanged. In addition, the Alkatiri camp continued to manipulate the process by limiting debate and blocking key individuals such as Jose Luis Guterres from speaking. According to informed delegates -- including those not in the Guterres camp -- a majority of delegates wanted to preserve the secret ballot but were afraid of being seen to openly contradict the position taken by the Alkatiri camp. ¶3. (C) Guterres has indicated that he will withdraw his candidacy if he concludes that the final version of the constitution does not reflect "the true values of the Party". Others observe that Guterres may have no choice but to withdraw because his campaign has failed to gain any momentum. AMERICAN CITIZENS ISSUES ¶4. (U) The Embassy hosted a town hall meeting at which 18 American citizens and 5 third-country nationals attended. There are a total of 109 amcits in country according to the latest information. Mission staff conducted a test of the Amcit SMS-based warden system. ¶5. (U) Mission staff met formally with seven members of the Australian planning team to ensure that our evacuation and contingency plans were fully coordinated. Several issues were identified for further clarification and discussion, including the circumstances under which each other's nationals will be allow to seek shelter in the other's compound. EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE ¶6. (U) Post held an Emergency Action Committee meeting to examine whether the recent developments of the Fretilin Party Congress warranted a change in Mission security posture. The EAC concluded that it did not. SECURITY ASSESSMENT ¶7. (C) According to USDR, within the past 24 hrs at the Defense Force HQ there have been indications of some increased levels of contingency planning focused outside Dili. Maps of the western areas where the dissident military are operating have been posted with very basic graphic control measures. It's unclear if this indicates an active planning process for offensive action, or is just a product of boredom of those living in the HQ for the past two weeks. The Defense Force doesn't generally conduct deliberate planning. There are also indications that officers thought to be loyal to Colonel Lere have been moved DILI 00000240 002.2 OF 002 into command of other units. The Force has now moved the equivalent of an Infantry Company to two sites in Dili, HQ and MP HQ downtown. They also have a Company(+) in Metinaro Base, 35km outside Dili. These moves may have been part of contingency planning to deal with any outbreak surrounding the Party Congress. ¶8. (C) One likely outcome from a strong Alkatiri win at the Fretilin Party Congress will be muted acceptance within the population, with the possibility of delayed backlash once the delegates return to their home districts, especially those in the west. The Alkatiri win is likely to cause the dissident military and Petitioners in the west to further entrench their positions. If Alkatiri comes out of the congress in an extremely strong position, this might raise the likelihood of him taking action against the western factions at a later date if it becomes apparent to him that he cannot get them to acceed to the terms of the commissions currently in operation as Alkatiri will see the continued presence of these armed groups as having the potential to undermine his position in the long term. STEIN