EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 16, 2006

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000238

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/16/2016
TAGS: ASEC AMGT PGOV KPKO TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 16, 2006

CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political Officer, Embassy
Dili, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY:
-- Life in Dili
-- Fretilin Central committee meeting
-- Guterres announces running mate
-- Fretilin Congress security update
-- Latest from TMR (See septel)
-- Ramos-Horta on the campaign trail?
-- Status of Other Embassies
-- Petitioner Update
-- Consular Issues
End summary.

Life in Dili
--------------


2. (U) Although life is returning to normal in Dili, the absence
of large numbers of Dili's population is still apparent. The
Minister of Education today reported that 40 percent of Dili's
schools are still closed due the absence of both students and
teachers. NGO workers describe the camps in Dili as little more
than giant day care centers because many adults are returning to
work or their neighborhoods during the day and only returning to
the camps at night. According to CRS, the total number of IDPs
nationwide has fallen to approximately 15,000 from a high of
nearly 30,000. The public transportation network has returned
to normal and flights out of Dili today were less than half full.

Fretilin Central Committee meeting
--------------


3. (C) Reports from observers and participants indicate that
most of the debate at last weekend's Fretilin Central Committee
meeting consisted of a pro-forma review of the revised party
documents to be presented at the Congress. Substantive issues,
such as the distribution of power within the party, were not
raised and most votes were on technical or procedural issues.
However, in voting on these minor issues, a bloc of about ten
CCF members consistently voted for Jose Luis Guterres'
positions. This represents a small proportion of the 88-member
CCF but was the first overt demonstration of rumored alliance
with Guterres by several CCF members, including Abel Ximenes.
Both Alkatiri and Guterres' supporters have described the
weekend meeting as "very successful" for their side. Alkatiri's
supporters point to the strong support they received in CCF
votes as indicative of their relative electoral strength.
Guterres' camp points out that several CCF members told him on
the margins that they had to publicly vote with Alkatiri but
would support him at the Congress where the balloting will be
secret.

SIPDIS

Guterres announces running mate
--------------


4. (SBU) Guterres announced formally that Egidio de Jesus,
currently Secretary of State for Region III, would be his
running mate for leadership of Fretilin. Prior to his
appointment as Secretary of State for Region III, de Jesus was
Secretary of State for Water and Electricity. In 1999, he

SIPDIS
worked in the voter education department of UNAMET until being
evacuated to Australia. During the Indonesian occupation he
worked for a period as Director of the Mining Department in Dili
and as such gained a reputation as a dedicated and hard worker
with an unblemished record. Although considered a loyal member
of Fretilin, he has not been particularly politically active in
the past. Egidio reportedly wants to draw the party closer to
the Catholic church.

Fretilin Congress security update
--------------


5. (SBU) Police Chief Paulo Martins told the Embassy that PNTL
will be responsible for ensuring the security at the Fretilin
congress. Despite this, several youth groups as well as Korka
and Kung Fu Masters, two martial arts group that are aligned
with Fretilin, are widely rumored to coming to Dili to assist.
These groups have provided security at previous events, such as
the CCF meeting in May 2005, without incident.

Latest from TMR (See septel)
--------------


6. (C) General Taur Matan Ruak (TMR) told us today that that he
and the FDTL are committed to cooperating with any investigation
into the claims of the petitioners but that he doubts the level

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of commitment by LT Salsinha and his followers. Similarly, he
said, FDTL will cooperate with any investigation into the events
of April 28. The most important question to be answered,
however, is why the PNTL failed rather on April 28 rather than
why the FDTL was called in. When pressed, General Matan Ruak
fell short of categorically denying that there were more deaths
than the 5 which have been publicly acknowledged. Several times
during the meeting Matan Ruak was indirectly critical of
President Gusmao. In reference to the President's recent meeting
with Major Reinado, for example, the General said that the
government should speak with one voice and implied that the
President's actions have undermined attempts to bring about a
successful end to the crisis.

Ramos-Horta on the campaign trail?
--------------


7. (U) In a press release today, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
provided an update on Ramos-Horta's current three-day trip in
the border districts. The trip has all the appearances of a
campaign and may, along with other recent initiatives, be
calculated to raise his domestic profile in anticipation of
being asked to fill the PM position in a caretaker government
should Ambassador Guterres defeat Alkatiri in the race for
Fretilin Secretary General (see Dili 229). Ramos-Horta's trip
activities include: greeting "hundreds of school children",
addressing local communities, and handing out donations of money
and clothing.

Status of Other Embassies
--------------


8. (C) The Japanese Embassy has reported that some but not all
spouses have chosen to return to Japan. Otherwise Embassy is
operating as usual. They have approximately 90 citizens in
country. Meanwhile, the Australian Embassy reconfirmed that
there has been no drawdown of family members or non-essential
staff. A 17-person security assessment team is currently in
Dili to review the security status of the Australian Embassy.
The Australian Ambassador and DATT report that they resisted the
deployment as "overkill".

Petitioner Update
--------------


9. (U) In a televised interview last night, Salsinha reversed
his position yet again by reiterating his demands that the
government "disarm" the FDTL members who participated in the
action on April 28 before he and his group will cooperate with
the Government-led commission to investigate the claims of
petitioners. He also announced that the petitioners will return
to Gleno from their respective districts.

Consular Issues
--------------


10. (SBU) Embassy Dili continues to verify the contact
information for Amcits and update the warden list. As of today,
there are an estimated 115 Amcits currently in East Timor; the
U.S. Mission has drawn down to 11. The Embassy will host a Town
Hall Meeting for American citizens on Thursday, May 18 to answer
questions concerning the current security situation.
STEIN