ALKATIRI, RAMOS-HORTA EXPRESS OPTIMISM, BUT PEOPLE ARE STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000219 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW PACOM FOR JOC, POLAD, J5 E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/8/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC MARR TT SUBJECT: ALKATIRI, RAMOS-HORTA EXPRESS OPTIMISM, BUT PEOPLE ARE STILL AFRAID REF: A) DILI 184 B) DILI 194; C) Dili 213; D) Dili 217 DILI 00000219 001.2 OF 003 CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) (1) (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri reiterated today his previous statements that "life is returning to normal" in East Timor, notwithstanding an attack yesterday on a cabinet member's motorcade that left one police officer dead. Alkatiri implicitly acknowledged the possibility that conditions could degenerate to a point where the President might have to exercise his constitutional authority to dismiss the Prime Minister, but he denied that the current situation would justify such an action and insisted that the situation would continue to improve. The Prime Minister's public statements about the ex-military "petitioners" in Ermera and about the group of dissident military and police officers in Aileu were less conciliatory than some of his previous statements: he warned these groups "to continue not to use guns" and suggested that the groups had been infiltrated by elements trying to cause a "constitutional coup d'etat." In a private meeting Alkatiri stated that "we are trying to avoid civil war," but he expressed confidence that his Government would be successful in this effort. Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta expressed similar upbeat sentiments in a briefing to the Dili diplomatic corps, but he conceded that the killing of the police officer yesterday might cause some Government of East Timor (GOET) leaders to become impatient with the GOET's current policy of restraint toward anti-government groups. Ramos-Horta also took some Embassies and UN personnel to task for inadvertently giving credence to what he regards as false rumors, including reports that elements the military (FDTL) killed many more people than officially acknowledged on the weekend of April 28-30. Both Alkatiri and Ramos-Horta, as well as Minister of the Interior Rogerio Lobato, emphatically denied reports that the Fretilin Party Congress scheduled for May 17-20 would be postponed. Meanwhile, people continued to leave Dili and to express distrust of the Government and fears that violence could recur. End Summary. Alkatiri says "life is returning to normal", but warns of a "constitutional coup d'etat" -------------- -------------- -------------- (2) (U) Prime Minister Alkatiri, in a press conference and subsequent press release today (Tuesday, May 8),reiterated his earlier statements that "life is returning to normal" in East Timor. Many observers were surprised at this optimistic assessment, in light of the attack yesterday on a cabinet member's motorcade that left one police officer dead and several others wounded. Alkatiri pointed out that government offices are operating and that "the State is performing all its functions." (3) (U) Alkatiri also observed that the Government has taken a restrained attitude toward two anti-government groups that have fled to the mountains --- the ex-FDTL "petitioners" led by Lieutenant Gastao Salsinha and the group of dissident FDTL and police (PNTL) members led by Major Alfredo Reinado. He pointed out that during the incident in Gleno, see Ref D, police officers did not shoot at the angry crowd. (Note: It now appears that the PNTL officers did fire warning shots. Embassy will report Septel more details of the Gleno incident.) (4) (C) There were signs today, however, that Alkatiri's position toward the anti-government groups is becoming less tolerant than it was a day or two ago. He urged Army and PNTL members whom he characterized as having "joined the petitioners" to "continue not using guns." He alluded to unspecified persons DILI 00000219 002.2 OF 003 who had "entered the 'petitioners' group and are making political and anti-democratic claims." In an apparent reference to the President's constitutional authority to dismiss the Prime Minister in certain specified circumstances, Alkatiri accused unspecified opponents of "an attempt of a constitutional coup d'etat, with the aim of blocking the democratic institutions, preventing them to function in a way that the only solution would be for National Parliament to be dissolved by the President of the Republic, which would provoke the fall of the Government." (Note: In fact article 112 of the Constitution gives the President the power to dismiss the Prime Minister --- not to dissolve the Parliament as suggested by Alkatiri --- when it is "necessary to ensure the regular functioning of the democratic institutions.") (5) (C) In a private meeting with a foreign diplomat today, Alkatiri was even more blunt. He said his Government "is trying to avoid civil war." He added that he thought Government security forces could succeed in this effort and did not need international assistance. Ramos-Horta: situation fragile but "this leadership will continue" -------------- -------------- (6) (U) Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta, who returned yesterday from his trip to New York to attend UN Security Council discussions on East Timor, gave a briefing today for the Dili diplomatic corps. His assessment was in the same upbeat spirit as Alkatiri's. Ramos-Horta told the assembled Ambassadors that "the situation is fragile, our democracy is fragile" but pointed out that new democracies often experience periods of unrest, praised the Government commission that has been established to deal with the complaints of discrimination and maladministration in FDTL raised by the petitioners (see Reftels),and concluded that "this leadership, that has been leading the struggle for 24 years in far more difficult circumstances, will continue in the same spirit." He added that "we will acknowledge that some of the problems are from a failure of leadership," conceding that the Government should have acted much sooner to address the petitioners' complaints. (7) (C) In response to a question about whether the killing of a police officer might harden the Government's position against anti-Government protestors --- until yesterday, all those killed appear to have been rioters, demonstrators, or bystanders --- Ramos-Horta conceded that "there could be a reaction from some segments of the police" and that even some senior GOET officials might "become impatient with the Government's policy of restraint." But he said Prime Minister Alkatiri had assured him that "the order remains to use defensive means, such as tear gas" against unruly protestors, not lethal force. (8) (C) Ramos-Horta was critical of unspecified Embassies and UN personnel in East Timor whom he said had given undue credence to false rumors. He acknowledged that international missions need to inquire about things they hear, but suggested that these missions need to be more careful to avoid inadvertently giving credence to the rumors. He mentioned in particular the reports that "more than five people were killed" on the weekend of April 28-29, for which he said "there is not a shred of evidence." He noted that the Government has appointed yet another commission to look into the allegations of mass killings by FDTL members (see Ref C),and added that "if this government commission isn't good enough, I invite the relevant UN Rapporteurs --- for instance, on Summary and Arbitrary Execution --- to come investigate. And if these rumors turn out to be true, I will be the first one to condemn what happened and to insist that appropriate action be taken." Nevertheless, Ramos-Horta appeared to have been embarrassed by reports circulating in New York of the as-yet-unsubstantiated killings. (Comment: As set forth in Reftels, there is a widespread belief in East Timor, among usually well-informed observers as well as among ordinary people, that substantially more than five people were killed on DILI 00000219 003.2 OF 003 the weekend of April 28-29 and that at least some of these deaths were the result of revenge killings ordered by FDTL assistant commander Colonel Lere. Emboffs have not yet spoken with anyone who claims to have been an eyewitness to these killings, but has received detailed second-and-third-hand accounts. Embassy will continue to research this issue and report Septel.) (9) (U) Both Alkatiri and Ramos-Horta gave assurances today that the Fretilin Party Congress scheduled for May 17-20 would go forward as planned. An Embassy source also indicated that Minister of the Interior Rogerio Lobato had told her "yes, it has to happen." (10)(C) Comment: The relentless optimism of Government leaders is in sharp contrast to the assessments given by ordinary Timorese, particularly those who are asked to explain why they and their families are taking refuge outside Dili when there has been no violence reported in Dili for over a week. They are often vague about specific threats, although it is clear that many people regard significant elements of the military and at least some elements in the PNTL as potential aggressors rather than protectors. The most frequent refrain is that the Government cannot be trusted and/or is incapable of solving the problems and must be replaced. Fortunately, the Government's best strategy for self-preservation --- no further unnecessary or excessive displays of force, more reassuring and conciliatory public statements, and whatever else is necessary to prevent the situation from degenerating to the point where dismissal of the Government would be "necessary to ensure the regular functioning of the democratic institutions" --- is also the best strategy for avoidance of further bloodshed and a gradual return to genuinely normal life in East Timor. End Comment. REES