ALKATIRI, RAMOS-HORTA EXPRESS OPTIMISM, BUT PEOPLE ARE STILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000219

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SUBJECT: ALKATIRI, RAMOS-HORTA EXPRESS OPTIMISM, BUT PEOPLE ARE STILL
AFRAID

REF: A) DILI 184 B) DILI 194; C) Dili 213; D) Dili 217

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CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

(1) (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri reiterated
today his previous statements that "life is returning to normal"
in East Timor, notwithstanding an attack yesterday on a cabinet
member's motorcade that left one police officer dead. Alkatiri
implicitly acknowledged the possibility that conditions could
degenerate to a point where the President might have to exercise
his constitutional authority to dismiss the Prime Minister, but
he denied that the current situation would justify such an
action and insisted that the situation would continue to
improve. The Prime Minister's public statements about the
ex-military "petitioners" in Ermera and about the group of
dissident military and police officers in Aileu were less
conciliatory than some of his previous statements: he warned
these groups "to continue not to use guns" and suggested that
the groups had been infiltrated by elements trying to cause a
"constitutional coup d'etat." In a private meeting Alkatiri
stated that "we are trying to avoid civil war," but he expressed
confidence that his Government would be successful in this
effort. Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta expressed similar upbeat
sentiments in a briefing to the Dili diplomatic corps, but he
conceded that the killing of the police officer yesterday might
cause some Government of East Timor (GOET) leaders to become
impatient with the GOET's current policy of restraint toward
anti-government groups. Ramos-Horta also took some Embassies
and UN personnel to task for inadvertently giving credence to
what he regards as false rumors, including reports that elements
the military (FDTL) killed many more people than officially
acknowledged on the weekend of April 28-30. Both Alkatiri and
Ramos-Horta, as well as Minister of the Interior Rogerio Lobato,
emphatically denied reports that the Fretilin Party Congress
scheduled for May 17-20 would be postponed. Meanwhile, people
continued to leave Dili and to express distrust of the
Government and fears that violence could recur. End Summary.


Alkatiri says "life is returning to normal", but warns of a
"constitutional coup d'etat"
-------------- --------------
--------------
(2) (U) Prime Minister Alkatiri, in a press conference and
subsequent press release today (Tuesday, May 8),reiterated his
earlier statements that "life is returning to normal" in East
Timor. Many observers were surprised at this optimistic
assessment, in light of the attack yesterday on a cabinet
member's motorcade that left one police officer dead and several
others wounded. Alkatiri pointed out that government offices
are operating and that "the State is performing all its
functions."

(3) (U) Alkatiri also observed that the Government has taken a
restrained attitude toward two anti-government groups that have
fled to the mountains --- the ex-FDTL "petitioners" led by
Lieutenant Gastao Salsinha and the group of dissident FDTL and
police (PNTL) members led by Major Alfredo Reinado. He pointed
out that during the incident in Gleno, see Ref D, police
officers did not shoot at the angry crowd. (Note: It now
appears that the PNTL officers did fire warning shots. Embassy
will report Septel more details of the Gleno incident.)

(4) (C) There were signs today, however, that Alkatiri's
position toward the anti-government groups is becoming less
tolerant than it was a day or two ago. He urged Army and PNTL
members whom he characterized as having "joined the petitioners"
to "continue not using guns." He alluded to unspecified persons

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who had "entered the 'petitioners' group and are making
political and anti-democratic claims." In an apparent reference
to the President's constitutional authority to dismiss the Prime
Minister in certain specified circumstances, Alkatiri accused
unspecified opponents of "an attempt of a constitutional coup
d'etat, with the aim of blocking the democratic institutions,
preventing them to function in a way that the only solution
would be for National Parliament to be dissolved by the
President of the Republic, which would provoke the fall of the
Government." (Note: In fact article 112 of the Constitution
gives the President the power to dismiss the Prime Minister ---
not to dissolve the Parliament as suggested by Alkatiri --- when
it is "necessary to ensure the regular functioning of the
democratic institutions.")

(5) (C) In a private meeting with a foreign diplomat today,
Alkatiri was even more blunt. He said his Government "is trying
to avoid civil war." He added that he thought Government
security forces could succeed in this effort and did not need
international assistance.


Ramos-Horta: situation fragile but "this leadership will
continue"
-------------- --------------

(6) (U) Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta, who returned yesterday
from his trip to New York to attend UN Security Council
discussions on East Timor, gave a briefing today for the Dili
diplomatic corps. His assessment was in the same upbeat spirit
as Alkatiri's. Ramos-Horta told the assembled Ambassadors that
"the situation is fragile, our democracy is fragile" but pointed
out that new democracies often experience periods of unrest,
praised the Government commission that has been established to
deal with the complaints of discrimination and maladministration
in FDTL raised by the petitioners (see Reftels),and concluded
that "this leadership, that has been leading the struggle for 24
years in far more difficult circumstances, will continue in the
same spirit." He added that "we will acknowledge that some of
the problems are from a failure of leadership," conceding that
the Government should have acted much sooner to address the
petitioners' complaints.

(7) (C) In response to a question about whether the killing of a
police officer might harden the Government's position against
anti-Government protestors --- until yesterday, all those killed
appear to have been rioters, demonstrators, or bystanders ---
Ramos-Horta conceded that "there could be a reaction from some
segments of the police" and that even some senior GOET officials
might "become impatient with the Government's policy of
restraint." But he said Prime Minister Alkatiri had assured him
that "the order remains to use defensive means, such as tear
gas" against unruly protestors, not lethal force.

(8) (C) Ramos-Horta was critical of unspecified Embassies and UN
personnel in East Timor whom he said had given undue credence to
false rumors. He acknowledged that international missions need
to inquire about things they hear, but suggested that these
missions need to be more careful to avoid inadvertently giving
credence to the rumors. He mentioned in particular the reports
that "more than five people were killed" on the weekend of April
28-29, for which he said "there is not a shred of evidence." He
noted that the Government has appointed yet another commission
to look into the allegations of mass killings by FDTL members
(see Ref C),and added that "if this government commission isn't
good enough, I invite the relevant UN Rapporteurs --- for
instance, on Summary and Arbitrary Execution --- to come
investigate. And if these rumors turn out to be true, I will be
the first one to condemn what happened and to insist that
appropriate action be taken." Nevertheless, Ramos-Horta
appeared to have been embarrassed by reports circulating in New
York of the as-yet-unsubstantiated killings. (Comment: As set
forth in Reftels, there is a widespread belief in East Timor,
among usually well-informed observers as well as among ordinary
people, that substantially more than five people were killed on

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the weekend of April 28-29 and that at least some of these
deaths were the result of revenge killings ordered by FDTL
assistant commander Colonel Lere. Emboffs have not yet spoken
with anyone who claims to have been an eyewitness to these
killings, but has received detailed second-and-third-hand
accounts. Embassy will continue to research this issue and
report Septel.)

(9) (U) Both Alkatiri and Ramos-Horta gave assurances today that
the Fretilin Party Congress scheduled for May 17-20 would go
forward as planned. An Embassy source also indicated that
Minister of the Interior Rogerio Lobato had told her "yes, it
has to happen."

(10)(C) Comment: The relentless optimism of Government leaders
is in sharp contrast to the assessments given by ordinary
Timorese, particularly those who are asked to explain why they
and their families are taking refuge outside Dili when there has
been no violence reported in Dili for over a week. They are
often vague about specific threats, although it is clear that
many people regard significant elements of the military and at
least some elements in the PNTL as potential aggressors rather
than protectors. The most frequent refrain is that the
Government cannot be trusted and/or is incapable of solving the
problems and must be replaced. Fortunately, the Government's
best strategy for self-preservation --- no further unnecessary
or excessive displays of force, more reassuring and conciliatory
public statements, and whatever else is necessary to prevent the
situation from degenerating to the point where dismissal of the
Government would be "necessary to ensure the regular functioning
of the democratic institutions" --- is also the best strategy
for avoidance of further bloodshed and a gradual return to
genuinely normal life in East Timor. End Comment.
REES