AMBASSADOR GUTERRES ON POLITICAL/SECURITY SITUATION AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000214 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PHUM ASEC MARR KDEM TT SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR GUTERRES ON POLITICAL/SECURITY SITUATION AND FRETILIN CONGRESS REF: A) Turnbull-Huang email 5/6/2006; B) DILI 213; C) DILI 167 DILI 00000214 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Emboff met with East Timor's Ambassador to the U.S. and the United Nations, Jose Luis Guterres, on May 6. Guterres is running against Prime Minister Alkatiri for Secretary General of the ruling Fretilin Party in the party congress scheduled for May 17-20. Ambassador Guterres conveyed strong optimism that the current security situation would soon stabilize, although some issues --- especially those of the dismissed soldiers whose demonstration led to the April 28 riot --- would remain outstanding for a while. However, Guterres arrived in country three days ago and remains unfamiliar with some important aspects of developments over the last week. For instance, he was unaware of the widespread (and correct) perception that Alkatiri's decision to use the armed forces (F-FDTL) to quell the April 28 riot was unconstitutional. Guterres predicted that the Fretilin Congress might be delayed for a month or two if the security situation deteriorates in the next few days. He expressed confidence that he will defeat Prime Minister Alkatiri in the contest for control of the party (and therefore of the Government),stating that Alkatiri has lost the confidence of the population as well as many within Fretilin. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) During a meeting with Emboff on May 6, Ambassador Guterres expressed optimism that East Timor is recovering from its current political and security crisis and that further violence is unlikely. He said he had been deeply concerned prior to his arrival but has been reassured by his experience on the ground during the last few days. In particular, he said he spoke today with General Tuar Matan Ruak, commander of F-FDTL. General Matan Ruak discussed the group of Military Police (MPs) and civilian police who left their posts May 3 with their weapons and have established a base in the neighboring district of Aileu. See Refs A&B. General Matan Ruak informed Guterres that he is in touch with the group's leader and confident that they will not initiate any violence. In addition, Matan Ruak told Guterres that three of the MPs had departed Aileu and returned to their barracks. ¶3. (SBU) Regarding the group of dismissed F-FDTL soldiers or 
"petitioners", Guterres said that the Government must find a way to address their short-term concerns (mostly relating to their own safety) immediately so that they can come out of hiding and return to normal lives. Then the investigation into their complaints can take place without an environment of crisis. He expressed his opinion that the petitioners, the group in Aileu, and any other groups that might threaten conflict would not be able to sustain such conflict for very long. Guerrilla warfare, he opined, is not easy and requires a fundamental and existential reason to be sustained for more than a month or two. When asked about his opinion of Colonel Lere of the F-FDTL, who the Embassy has identified as a possible initiator of violence if the situation deteriorates, he remarked that Lere is a person who is "very ready to use force, but only if ordered." ¶4. (SBU) When asked about the F-FDTL intervention to quell the April 28 riots and their subsequent actions especially in the Tasitolu area, Ambassador Guterres indicated that he did not yet have complete information on these events. He said that based on his current information he believes the F-FDTL's involvement to have been legitimate as it was based on the Government's request and expressed confidence in General Matan Ruak's account of the number of deaths (five). He was not aware that that President Xanana Gusmao had not been consulted regarding the F-FDTL intervention, as required by the Constitution. However, he said he was still gathering information on how the decision was made and had not yet had a chance to discuss it with the President. ¶5. (SBU) On the upcoming Fretilin Congress, Ambassador Guterres noted that the immediate affect of the political and security situation is that people close to Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri may push for the Congress to be delayed. He observed that such a decision might cause some to conclude that Alkatiri orchestrated recent unrest in order to buy more time, although he did not say that he believed this himself. In fact, he said that some delay may be necessary if the situation deteriorates, but emphasized that the Congress should not be delayed more than a month or two. The decision on whether to delay the Congress DILI 00000214 002.2 OF 002 will most likely be taken at a Fretilin Central Committee (CCF) meeting originally scheduled for today but now postponed until May 13. If the Congress is delayed, Guterres will return to New York to resume his ambassadorial duties and return to East Timor three or four weeks before the rescheduled Congress to resume his campaign for Secretary General of the party. ¶6. (SBU) When asked what political effects the current crisis would have on the outcome of the Congress, Guterres said he believes that the people blame Alkatiri more than any other single individual for recent events. Alkatiri, he stated, has lost the trust even of many Fretilin loyalists by not effectively handling known problems in their early stages. Moreover, he said, Alkatiri is proving ineffective and insensitive in addressing the fears of the population and the current internally displaced persons (IDP) crisis. Guterres believes that a change in Fretilin leadership at the upcoming Congress could contribute to a diffusion of tensions, as it would likely result in a caretaker government that could begin to regain the public trust. He mentioned Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta as the likeliest candidate for Prime Minister if Alkatiri is defeated in the Congress. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Alkatiri has stated that he would immediately resign from the Prime Minister position if not reelected as Secretary General. Even if he did not resign, the Constitution SIPDIS provides several procedures by which a party that holds a majority in Parliament can bring about the dismissal of a Prime Minister who has lost their confidence. These constitutional provisions would require action by President Xanana Gusmao, but if Fretilin were to elect new leadership and then seek to replace Prime Minister Alkatiri with Ramos Horta, Ambassador Guterres, or someone else by constitutional means, President Gusmao would be likely to grant the request with alacrity. End comment. REES