EMBATTLED CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER EDGES CLOSER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006692

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BG
SUBJECT: EMBATTLED CHIEF ELECTION COMMISSIONER EDGES CLOSER
TO THE DOOR


Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Summary. Though many pitfalls remain, new flexibility
from both sides may soon produce a reconstituted election
commission and an end to the nationwide blockade. End
Summary.

Exit Strategies for Aziz
--------------


2. (SBU) As the opposition's renewed nationwide
transportation blockade enters its third day, hopes are
rising that controversial Chief Election Commissioner M.A.
Aziz is about the depart on "leave" well beyond the January
2007 election date. The presence on the streets now of
activists from almost every party of consequence outside the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party's four-party alliance --
including Ershad's Jatiya Party and some very conservative
Islamist groups -- underscores Aziz's extreme isolation.


3. (C) With rumors swirling about the status of Aziz's
reported leave request, the key points seem to be:

-- Aziz is willing to go.

-- The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is on board with Aziz's
going on "leave" but is balking at other changes at the
commission, particularly the Awami League's public demand
that Commissioner Zakaria also exit the scene. Both parties
cite as a major concession their acceptance of this
face-saving mechanism for removing Aziz.

-- According to Sultana Kamal, the openly pro-Awami League
caretaker government adviser, party president Sheikh Hasina
told her this morning that the Awami League would continue to
attack Commissioner Zakaria publicly but would not insist on
his departure, provided three additional "neutral"
commissioners are appointed to ensure a "balanced" body.

-- Aziz should go abroad so he can't manipulate the
Commission by his proximate presence.

-- The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, Aziz himself, and Chief
Adviser Ahmed all want assurances from Sheikh Hasina that
Aziz's departure will break the deadlock and end the blockade.

Potential Pitfalls
--------------


4. (C) Publicly, there is a lack of clarity on the official
positions of the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist
Party, which further amplifies their mutual distrust.
Hasina's track record of pocketing concessions exposes her to
skepticism that she would stand down after Aziz departs, and
it is unclear who would become acting chief election
commissioner or how the new commissioners would be selected.
No one questions the competence of Commissioner Zakaria, and
it is doubtful if a new boss or any of the other
commissioners could do the job without significant help and
maybe more time. Aziz has reportedly said he does not want
to go abroad, which could become another point of contention.

Quiet on the Ground
--------------


5. (SBU) As of 1600, there are no reports of significant
violence in Bangladesh. Police describe the mood of
demonstrators in Dhaka as festive, and traffic is heavier
than yesterday. Garment producers promise a siege at the
presidency tomorrow if the blockade is still in effect,
claiming the blockade is costing them (a very inflated) USD
70 million per day.

Diplomatic Role
--------------


6. (C) Both parties, the advisers, and officials in Ahmed's
office are in constant contact with Ambassador to seek her
support for moving the process forward. All have invoked the
specter of military intervention in the event of failure to
encourage her to press the parties to be flexible. While
there are credible reports the military wants very robust
rules of engagement if called to support civil authority,
there is no evidence the military is eager to take this role
on. The caretaker government advisers active in the dialogue
continue to express frustration to us at their lack of timely
access to Chief Adviser Ahmed, who is, however, clearly
available to leaders of the former ruling party.

DHAKA 00006692 002 OF 002



Comment
--------------


7. (C) Unexpected flexibility by both parties could mean a
breakthrough is in sight, but there are plenty of pitfalls
that either party could exploit to abort or undermine a deal.
BUTENIS