RENEWED OPPOSITION BLOCKADE LOOMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006668 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV BG SUBJECT: RENEWED OPPOSITION BLOCKADE LOOMS REF: DHAKA 06644 Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Butenis, reason para 1.4 d. ¶1. (SBU) Summary. With the two major parties still deadlocked over the composition of the Election Commission, the opposition's nationwide transportation blockades seems set to resume on Monday. End Summary. Blockade Set To Resume -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Late November 18, President/Chief Adviser proposed naming two additional election commissioners in response to opposition demands that the entire commission be reconstituted, but the Awami League replied with renewed demands that Chief Election Commissioner Aziz and the other three commissioners all be replaced. One Awami League leader suggested the proposal might be considered if the new commissioners were in place of Aziz and Commissioner Zakaria but charged the caretaker government with colluding with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party to rig the upcoming election. ¶3. (SBU) The Awami League also reiterated it would resume its nationwide transportation blockade unless the caretaker government meets by the end of Sunday its 11-point election ultimatum, including reconstitution of the Election Commission. Leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party have promised counter-demonstrations to protest "anarchy," and police contacts tell us they expect significant violence across the country. ¶4. (SBU) President/Chief Adviser Ahmed is expected to address the nation on television on Sunday or Monday. His offer of two extra commissioners followed his two-hour meeting with Bangladesh Nationalist Party chairperson Khaleda Zia, who reportedly urged the caretaker government to announce the election schedule without delay. "Coup" Rumors from Awami League -------------- ¶5. (C) Late November 18, two retired senior military officers associated with the Awami League called emboffs to report a military "coup" was imminent, allegedly at the direction of the Pakistani intelligence service and using tanks provided to Bangladesh for an upcoming United Nations peacekeeping mission. The contacts asserted that the Pakistanis had assured the military that the USG supported the action. ¶6. (C) When queried, a senior military officer told us some military assets were moving as part of a previously-scheduled semi-annual exercise, but that absolutely nothing out of the ordinary was underway. Ambassador called a senior Awami League leader to stress it was not helpful to spread alarmist rumors about military intervention, and repeated our strong opposition to extra-constitutional military intervention. ¶7. (C) Military and political contacts continue to insist that the military is extremely reluctant to get involved in the current political standoff, and wants arrest authority if the caretaker government does call on it to assist civil authority. According to local press reports, last week's abortive military deployment order (reftel) was formally withdrawn several days ago. High Stakes Poker -------------- ¶8. (C) On November 16, Ambassador met privately with Mosharraf Hussain, a hard-line leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and longtime confidant of party chairperson Khaleda Zia. He assured ambassador that no one in his party wants a State of Emergency, but blamed Awami League brinkmanship for pushing Bangladesh to the edge. The fact his party won handily in 2001, he said, shows, that control of the Election Commission, which it had appointed, is not a key factor. Moreover, he wondered, how could the parties come to consensus on a new Chief Election Commissioner? ¶9. (C) Hussain accepted the point that an election without the Awami League would lack credibility, but noted the Awami League has a long history going back to 1991 of threatening to boycott an election before ultimately relenting, and that the Awami League will likely to do the same thing this time. Before the violence at the end of October, he said, the Awami League was poised to win the election, but the violence and a deeply unpopular blockade have reversed the situation in his party's favor. DHAKA 00006668 002 OF 002 ¶10. (C) Former Home Minister Lutfuzzoman Babar separately reiterated to Ambassador that his party colleagues will never budge on replacing Chief Election Commissioner Aziz because to do so would be a humiliating loss of face under Awami League pressure and demoralize party activists at a critical time. He hoped the Awami League would settle for the extra election commissioners to allow the country to move forward. Despondent Advisers -------------- ¶11. (C) On November 19, Ambassador met with General (R) Moshud Chowdhury, who retired as chief of army staff in 2005 and was one of the four advisers who met with political parties last week to discuss options for breaking the political impasse. The advisers, he reported, spent five hours yesterday with Chief Adviser Ahmed discussing their wide-ranging package of proposals, several of which should already have been implemented if Ahmed were seriously considering them. ¶12. (C) He and several other advisers are demoralized, he stated, and nearing the point of resignation because of Ahmed's failure to empower them. The caretaker government, he lamented, has become a farce, with a leader, Ahmed, who continues to take orders from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. BUTENIS