BLOCKADE SUSPENSION HINGES ON ELECTION COMMISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006660 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016 TAGS: KDEM PGOV BG SUBJECT: BLOCKADE SUSPENSION HINGES ON ELECTION COMMISSION REF: DHAKA 06647 Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, reason para 1.4 d. ¶1. (C) Summary. Privately, the Awami League says that purging the Election Commission would secure its participation in the upcoming election, but many Bangladeshis doubt Chief Adviser Ahmed would let that happen and fear that an intensified nationwide blockade will resume on Monday. End Summary. Blockade Suspended -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Late November 15, Awami League president Sheikh Hasina announced a three-day suspension of the opposition's nationwide transportation blockade in order, she said, to give Chief Adviser Ahmed more time to meet its various demands. She cited as contributing factors popular hardship as commodities like fuel became scarce in cities and her "confidence in the sincerity" of the four Caretaker Government advisers meeting with political parties to resolve the Election Commission issue. She reiterated that demands like transparent ballot boxes and a rectified voter list must also be addressed. The Bottom Line -------------- ¶3. (C) On November 16, two senior Awami League leaders insisted to us in separate meetings that agreement on purging the Election Commission would end the blockade and bring the Awami League into elections, with them pursuing their other demands lawfully and within the electoral context. ¶4. (C) Local media reported that the four Caretaker Government advisers who are negotiating with political parties on a political solution submitted to Chief Adviser Ahmed yesterday a recommendation for breaking the impasse. Quoting an adviser who had briefed them last night, the Awami Leaguers said the recommendation is to remove Chief Election Commissioner Aziz, either through resignation or by convening the constitutionally-mandated judicial committee to dismiss him for cause. ¶5. (C) The two leaders differed, however, on the likely outcome. Presidium Member Kazi Zafarullah declared himself upbeat that Ahmed would bow to political reality and support the recommendation. Of the other three commissioners, two, he said, have told the Awami League they want to go and would presumable resign once Aziz exited the scene. Zafarullah claimed that visibly increased popular participation in Wednesday's demonstrations showed that momentum was with the opposition. ¶6. (C) The other party leader, Salman Rahman, a big businessman and arch-rival of Zafarullah's, was decidedly pessimistic. He predicted that Ahmed, bound by pressure from the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, would reject his advisers' recommendation, the blockade would resume, violence would entail, and within a week a military deployment would unfold to further exacerbate the situation. Going beyond what his colleagues say, Rahman declared that a decision to reject elections would not mean boycott but a campaign to prevent the election from happening. ¶7. (C) Rahman asserted that Hasina and all Awami Leaguers want elections, even if some senior leaders are more oriented to confrontation than Hasina. He related their work to build a coalition that makes sense only in electoral terms. Last night, he said, Hasina pandered to the son of Shaikhul Hadith, a hard-line leader of Islami Oikya Jote whose anti-Jamaat Islami views have driven him away from the four-party alliance. Hasina reportedly blamed her home minister for ordering Shakhul's brief detention during her government in connection with a murdered policeman, and said that as a child she had read his books with great reverence. Hasina, he indicated, would not have subjected herself to such a display unless she was serious about broadening her election coalition. The Next Three Days -------------- ¶8. (C) There is no sign the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is prepared to back down. Several party contacts told us Hasina suspended her blockade because she realized she could not sustain it and people were outraged by the consequences. Some criticized party Chairperson Khaleda Zia's failure to DHAKA 00006660 002 OF 002 settle the Election Commission issue before her administration stepped down and for leaving no room for tactical accommodation of opposition demands, but they agreed that both sides were at "the point of no return." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Sheikh Hasina has blinked three times in the 17 days of the Caretaker Government, but how long can this stop-and-go pattern last? The good news is that both parties have shown surprising restraint on the streets, and the evidence is growing that the Awami League is not determined to be confrontational to create a pretext for an election boycott. On the other hand, Bangladesh dodged a bullet when administrative bungling and apparently military reluctance nixed a move by President Ahmed to deploy troops in response to the blockade. Many fear there must be a limit to such luck and the uncharacteristic restraint of Bangladesh's notoriously self-centered politicians. BUTENIS