BLOCKADE SUSPENSION HINGES ON ELECTION COMMISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 006660

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV BG
SUBJECT: BLOCKADE SUSPENSION HINGES ON ELECTION COMMISSION

REF: DHAKA 06647

Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi, reason para 1.4 d.


1. (C) Summary. Privately, the Awami League says that
purging the Election Commission would secure its
participation in the upcoming election, but many Bangladeshis
doubt Chief Adviser Ahmed would let that happen and fear that
an intensified nationwide blockade will resume on Monday.
End Summary.

Blockade Suspended
--------------


2. (SBU) Late November 15, Awami League president Sheikh
Hasina announced a three-day suspension of the opposition's
nationwide transportation blockade in order, she said, to
give Chief Adviser Ahmed more time to meet its various
demands. She cited as contributing factors popular hardship
as commodities like fuel became scarce in cities and her
"confidence in the sincerity" of the four Caretaker
Government advisers meeting with political parties to resolve
the Election Commission issue. She reiterated that demands
like transparent ballot boxes and a rectified voter list must
also be addressed.

The Bottom Line
--------------


3. (C) On November 16, two senior Awami League leaders
insisted to us in separate meetings that agreement on purging
the Election Commission would end the blockade and bring the
Awami League into elections, with them pursuing their other
demands lawfully and within the electoral context.


4. (C) Local media reported that the four Caretaker
Government advisers who are negotiating with political
parties on a political solution submitted to Chief Adviser
Ahmed yesterday a recommendation for breaking the impasse.
Quoting an adviser who had briefed them last night, the Awami
Leaguers said the recommendation is to remove Chief Election
Commissioner Aziz, either through resignation or by convening
the constitutionally-mandated judicial committee to dismiss
him for cause.


5. (C) The two leaders differed, however, on the likely
outcome. Presidium Member Kazi Zafarullah declared himself
upbeat that Ahmed would bow to political reality and support
the recommendation. Of the other three commissioners, two,
he said, have told the Awami League they want to go and would
presumable resign once Aziz exited the scene. Zafarullah
claimed that visibly increased popular participation in
Wednesday's demonstrations showed that momentum was with the
opposition.


6. (C) The other party leader, Salman Rahman, a big
businessman and arch-rival of Zafarullah's, was decidedly
pessimistic. He predicted that Ahmed, bound by pressure from
the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, would reject his advisers'
recommendation, the blockade would resume, violence would
entail, and within a week a military deployment would unfold
to further exacerbate the situation. Going beyond what his
colleagues say, Rahman declared that a decision to reject
elections would not mean boycott but a campaign to prevent
the election from happening.


7. (C) Rahman asserted that Hasina and all Awami Leaguers
want elections, even if some senior leaders are more oriented
to confrontation than Hasina. He related their work to build
a coalition that makes sense only in electoral terms. Last
night, he said, Hasina pandered to the son of Shaikhul
Hadith, a hard-line leader of Islami Oikya Jote whose
anti-Jamaat Islami views have driven him away from the
four-party alliance. Hasina reportedly blamed her home
minister for ordering Shakhul's brief detention during her
government in connection with a murdered policeman, and said
that as a child she had read his books with great reverence.
Hasina, he indicated, would not have subjected herself to
such a display unless she was serious about broadening her
election coalition.

The Next Three Days
--------------


8. (C) There is no sign the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is
prepared to back down. Several party contacts told us Hasina
suspended her blockade because she realized she could not
sustain it and people were outraged by the consequences.
Some criticized party Chairperson Khaleda Zia's failure to

DHAKA 00006660 002 OF 002


settle the Election Commission issue before her
administration stepped down and for leaving no room for
tactical accommodation of opposition demands, but they agreed
that both sides were at "the point of no return."

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Sheikh Hasina has blinked three times in the 17 days
of the Caretaker Government, but how long can this
stop-and-go pattern last? The good news is that both parties
have shown surprising restraint on the streets, and the
evidence is growing that the Awami League is not determined
to be confrontational to create a pretext for an election
boycott. On the other hand, Bangladesh dodged a bullet when
administrative bungling and apparently military reluctance
nixed a move by President Ahmed to deploy troops in response
to the blockade. Many fear there must be a limit to such
luck and the uncharacteristic restraint of Bangladesh's
notoriously self-centered politicians.
BUTENIS